1. DoD Volcano & Ash Forecasting: Perspectives, Challenges, and Opportunities --2nd International Conference on Volcano and Ash Forecasting Mr. Alan R. Shaffer June 21, 2004 Director, Plans & Programs Office Defense Research and Engineering

2. Air Force Weather Agency serves as DoD focal point for global volcanic ash cloud forecasts; 24/7 global coverage Text Bulletins Satellite Analysis Graphical Forecast Products Takes Advantage of Advanced MetSat Applications at Air Force Weather Agency Defense Meteorological Satellite Program Data Process and Handling Center Forecast based on ”PUFF” Model PUFF is Advective Model using Point Source and Gridded Wind Fields Military Model can be run with higher resolution (45km grid vice 191-km) Navy Centers also issue tailored ash forecasts; e.g. NEMOC issues routine Mt. Etna forecasts for Sigoniela, Italy Ash Forecast Driver Different for DoD compared to Commercial Mission vice Economic Drivers Operational Support System For Official Use Only

3. Operational Support System--Air Force Weather Agency-- • AFWA Issues Graphic Problems as Required—example at right is the forecast for Tungurahua in Ecuador (June 17, 2004) • Includes flight level, ash density • Products updated daily—or more often if serious event occurs • Also issue an animation product for forecast evolution over time For Official Use Only

4. Operational Support System--Air Force Weather Agency-- 18 June 0300Z 18 June 0600Z • Expansion of panels for Tunguruhura, in Ecuador (June 17, 2004) • Panel shows +3, +6 hour forecast over a altitude width • For specialized missions, it is possible to provide high resolution tailored forecasts For Official Use Only

5. National Weather Service Product--VAFTAD-- • Basis is the Volcanic Ash Forecast Transport and Dispersion Model (VAFTAD) • Investigating the ingestion of deep layer Navy NOGAPS model • VAFTAD is advection / diffusion model • 191 Km AVN fields • Navy developing 45 km version using NOGAPS Sky-high model For Official Use Only

6. Operational DoD Text Bulletincs • Issued by AGFWA WEATHER BULLETINS FVAW1 KGWC 180000 GLOBAL VOLCANIC ERUPTION SUMMARY BULLETIN VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS PAST 24 HOURS 1. EUROPE, AFRICA, AND ICELAND (A) NONE. --FOR FURTHER INFORMATION SEE CURRENT FVAF LFPW BULLETIN— 2. AMERICAS (CANADA, CARIBBEAN, SOUTH AMERICA) (A)VOLCANO: TUNGURAHUA 1502-08 LOCATION: 1.46S 78.44W AREA: ECUADOR SUMMIT ELEVATION: 16480 FT (5023 M)) ERUPTION DETAILS: ERUPTION AT 17/1745Z. TRAJECTORY: ASH/STEAM TO FL230 MOVG WEST AT 15-20 KTS. --FOR FURTHER INFORMATION SEE FVXX KWBC BULLETIN— 3. NORTH PACIFIC (ALASKA, KAMCHATKA, JAPAN, PHILIPPINES) (A)VOLCANO: KARYMSKY 1000-13 LOCATION: 54.05N 159.43E AREA: KAMCHATKA SUMMIT ELEVATION: 4874 FT (1486 M) ERUPTION DETAILS: ERUPTION REPORTED AT 17/2223Z. TRAJECTORY: ASH TO FL090 MVG EAST AT 15-20KTS. --FOR FURTHER INFORMATION SEE FVFE RJTD BULLETIN– 4. SOUTH PACIFIC (AUSTRALIA, NEW ZEALAND, INDONESIA) (A) NONE. FOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND PUFF MODEL FORECASTS BASED ON GFS DATA SEE: HTTPS ://WEATHER.AFWA.AF.MIL/ENVIRONMENTAL(UNDERSCORE)EVENTS.HTML (LOWER-CASE ONLY). PREPARED BY MARTINEZ Created: 01:48:59 Z on Fri 18 Jun 2004. For Official Use Only

7. Air Force Air Force Does in-house development of products and graphics by Satellite Applications Branch Has supported the development of PUFF, with the University of Alaska Geophysics Institute AF Funded efforts included: Creating the ability to ingest (high resolution) AFWA forecast model fields Developing graphical user interface Further Development not funded Navy: Ingestion of NOGAPS Sky Hi (45km) fields into PUFF Army: Jointly funded early University Partnering for Operational Support Other Applicable Research Sensing DoD spending ~$300M/year in advanced sensors and applicatrions, including advanced IR resolution and uncooled IR focal planes, as well as multispectral and hyperspectral sensors DoD again funding (minimally) seismology research Propulsion: DoD investing ~ $125M / year in Integrated High-Performance Turbine Engine Research; including advanced componsites and metals Current State of Supporting Research For Official Use Only

8. PUFF is used by Washington Volcanic Ash Advisory Center, Air Fore Weather Agency and University of Anchorage Volcanic Ash Advisory Center Deficiencies: Detection Sensing initial ash eruption density Characterizing ash cloud density and distribution Plume Transport Characterizing upper level variability in wind field Integrating model with high resolution winds Future proposed research includes real time graphical user interface PUFF Characteristics For Official Use Only

9. Apply other DoD tools to Volcanic Ash model High Resolution Terrain Data: Worldwide terrain / topographic data available at 100m post spacing—many areas 3 to 5 meters Novel Sensors: Multi and Hyperspectral, Long Wave IR DoD experimenting with Hyperspectral high resolution— Question: Are there unique spectral characteristics in volcanic ash cloud? How does Met Community Leverage other opportunities? Navy SPY-1 Radar became solid weather radar for Navy Aegis Cruiser Use of multiple sensors Research Opportunities For Official Use Only

10. Possible Application—Hyperspectral Imagery --Adaptive Spectral Reconnaissance Program-- Target Airborne Platform • Hyperspectral Sensor • 140-300 bands • 1m Scale Spatial Res • RealTime Processor • Detects Targets • Cues EO/TIR Imagery • High Spatial Res • EO/TIR Camera • NIIRS 7.5/6.5 Target Target RGB from HS datacube • Hyperspectral detection of camouflaged and concealed mobile tactical vehicles • Algorithm-based detection processing • Detection-cued high resolution imagery Actual Image Pending Security Review Output from SEM detection algorithm Cued High-Resolution Image Chip

11. Possible Application—Hyperspectral Imagery --Adaptive Spectral Reconnaissance Program-- Ground Truth Testing Regions Training Classes Water Surf Grass Shrub Dry sand Wet sand Compact Sand Algorithm Performance Comparison Littoral Radiance II Camp Pendleton CA, June 14, 1997 Classification Map Confusion Matrix (SAM)

12. Hypersonic Sensors Goes 12 For Official Use Only

13. Research Questions Goes 12 For Official Use Only

14. Operational Support System--Navy Forecast Philosophy-- • Navy Research Lab is investigating: Improvement in the Volcanic Ash Forecast Transport and Dispersion Model (VAFTAD) and PUFF • Investigating the ingestion of deep layer Navy NOGAPS model • Again, Looking at higher resolution models For Official Use Only