1 / 15

SemiWEEK: Assembly Equipment & Test Related Equipment Outlook, Stocks slipped

Semiconductor WEEK: An overview of results and conclusions from recent reports at VLSI. Semiconductor sales recovered for the second week in a row. Despite the improvement, sales are still well below the same week in 2019 with DRAM and Auto ICs being hit hardest.

VLSI
Télécharger la présentation

SemiWEEK: Assembly Equipment & Test Related Equipment Outlook, Stocks slipped

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Semiconductor WEEK: April 24, 2020 An overview of results and conclusions from recent reports at VLSI Chip Market Research Services All eyes are sharply focused on the second half • Order activity for semiconductor equipment hovered at 58 degrees as the decline in SOC Mobile was offset by the increase in SOC Computing and Memory • Fab Capacity Utilization by Node Semiconductor Analytics Semi Market results from last week: Semiconductor sales recovered for the second week Semiconductor Sales Nowcast: 2Q20/2Q19 Opened the 2Q20 deeply down – Semiconductor Weather1Report: Chilly – IC Supply-Demand2Metrics: Balanced – Electronics Price Trend: Rising Overall Semi Sales Status Trend: Peaked: Mar 18 Cold with Dark Clouds: Sep 18 Freezing: Nov 18 Frozen: Jan 19 Freezing: Mar 19 Cold: May 19 Cool: July 19 Temperate: Oct 19 Sunny: Nov 19 Warm: Dec 19 Flu Chills: Feb 28 Chip History Center How KLA-Tencor Meets Stringent Process Control Requirements: Ken Schroeder, then President & CEO of KLA-Tencor, discusses the history of process control and the role K-T played. KLA 200 Series Reticle Inspection Systems: KLA’s technical success was founded on how it used software to identify defects in optical images. The Chip Insider Equipment & Emerging Markets: Assembly Equipment Outlook; Test & Related Equipment Outlook Semiconductor Stocks • Semiconductor Stock Index slipped 0.4% • Semiconductor Equipment Stock fell 2.6% – ASM International came out on top • EDA Stock Index was led up 0.6% by Cadence • Electronics Materials Stock Index gave back 0.2% – DuPont was this week’s biggest winner • Hottest Stocks: DuPont, SOITEC, STMicroelectronics, ON Semiconductor, MaxLinear, and ASM International. VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster Copyright © 2020 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved. Distribution rights contained in T&Cs.

  2. The Chip Insider®'s Graphics File April 2020 All eyes are sharply focused on the second half • Order activity for semiconductor equipment hovered at 58 degrees as the decline in SOC Mobile was offset by the increase in SOC Computing and Memory • Even though equipment suppliers are not seeing any significant pushouts or cancellations, their visibility for the rest of the year remains very limited • So far, the chipmaking industry has weathered the storm far better than other sectors of the economy • The fallout at the macro level will likely put a lot of pressure on chipmakers and equipment suppliers in the second half of the year as the industry grapples with growing inventories and weak end- demand • VLSI’s Chip Price Performance Index (CPPI) continued to trend lower This issue contains the latest forecast. VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster Call us to access more details Copyright © 2020 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved. Distribution rights contained in T&Cs.

  3. Mild COVID-19 impact, recovery 3Q20--VLSI Forecast Forecast as of March 2020: Semi Equipment ($B): Sequential Change Capacity Utilization: ICs ($B): Sequential Change IC Units (BU): Sequential Change Electronics ($B) : Sequential Change 2021 84.9 $ 17.6% 89.1% 418.0 $ 24.0% 342.1 20.1% 2,362 $ 16.9% 2019 $ -8.0% 84.6% 352.3 $ -13.4% 299.4 -6.0% 2,122 $ -2.0% 2020 72.2 $ -6.3% 82.9% 337.1 $ -4.3% 284.9 -4.9% 2,020 $ -4.8% 77.0 Moderate COVID-19 impact, recovery in 4Q20 Forecast as of March 2020: Semi Equipment ($B): Sequential Change ICs ($B): Sequential Change IC Units (BU): Sequential Change Electronics ($B) : Sequential Change Severe COVID-19 impact, recovery 1Q21 Forecast as of March 2020: Semi Equipment ($B): Sequential Change ICs ($B): Sequential Change IC Units (BU): Sequential Change Electronics ($B) : Sequential Change 2021 84.9 $ 33.9% 418.0 $ 37.9% 342.1 34.1% 2,362 $ 25.3% 2021 84.9 $ 52.4% 418.0 $ 48.1% 342.1 43.7% 2,362 $ 35.8% 2019 $ -8.0% 352.3 $ -13.4% 299.4 -6.0% 2,121.9 $ -2.0% 2020 63.4 $ -17.7% 303.1 $ -14.0% 255.1 -14.8% 1,885 $ -11.2% 2019 $ -8.0% 352.3 $ -13.4% 299.4 -6.0% 2,122 $ -2.0% 2020 55.7 $ -27.7% 282.2 $ -19.9% 238.1 -20.5% 1,739 $ -18.0% 77.0 77.0 VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster Copyright © 2020 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved. Distribution rights contained in T&Cs.

  4. The Chip Insider®Graphics Capacity Utilization by Node: – Utilization rates are above this time last year’s levels Fab Capacity Utilization by Node: chart gives rolling averages for 20nm 22nm 28nm 32nm 40nm 45nm 60nm 65nm and larger VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster Copyright © 2020 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved. Distribution rights contained in T&Cs.

  5. Semiconductor Analytics Last Week in the Semiconductor Market: Semiconductor sales recovered for the second week in a row. Despite the improvement, sales are still well below the same week in 2019 with DRAM and Auto ICs being hit hardest. Last week Semiconductor S-D held at Balanced as conditions at Foundries improved. W/W: Week-over-Week sequential growth W/Q: Week-over-Quarter W/Y: Week-over-Year Semiconductor Sales Nowcast: 2Q20/2Q19 Opened the 2Q20 deeply down Semiconductor Weather1Report: 65˚ F Chilly IC Supply-Demand2Metrics: Balanced Electronics Pricing Trend: Rising Notebooks, Smartphones, and Consumer Electronics have a seasonal inversion driven by WAHE (Work-at-Home Economy) Thank you for supporting us through this last issue of 2018. Semiconductor Analytics will return January . Overall Semi Sales Status Trend: Peaked: Mar 18 Cold with Dark Clouds: Sep 18 Freezing: Nov 18 Frozen: Jan 19 Freezing: Mar 19 Cold: May 19 Cool: July 19 Temperate: Oct 19 Sunny: Nov 19 Warm: Dec 19 Flu Chills: Feb 28 1: Measures Order Activity 2: Measures Pricing Power VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster 5 Copyright © 2020 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved. Distribution rights contained in T&Cs.

  6. 2020 Semiconductor Market Drivers Coronavirus has driven Integrated Circuit sales towards recession: • Certainties: – Coronavirus Pandemic infected economies • Unparalleled Supply and Demand shocks to IC sales of <10% and units of ~20% – Macroeconomic ‘V’acuum or ‘U’ – not ‘L’ – WAHE (Work-At-Home Economy) – 7/10nm and 5/7nm demand ramps – Memory Price Elasticity – 5G: Smartphone, Auto, Industrial • Uncertainties: – Ability of Governments to defibrillate economy out of shelter-in-place – 2020 Elections in U.S. VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster 6 Copyright © 2020 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved. Distribution rights contained in T&Cs.

  7. The Chip Insider® Equipment & Emerging Markets Assembly Equipment Outlook • Scenarios for COVID-19 Recovery • Where is Semi Manufacturing Heading? • Changes since last forecast • 2021 recovery followed by cyclical growth • Assembly Equipment Trends • VLSI’s view VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster Copyright © 2020 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved. Distribution rights contained in T&Cs.

  8. Assembly Equipment Demand Negative IC unit demand pulled 2019 sales lower, growth in 2020 Assembly equipment sales were already substantially below IC unit trend • This low level is creating a capacity shortfall that will be filled • 2020 lower sales will create an even larger capacity shortfall – Creating sharp recovery once economy and consumer demand returns to normal VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster Copyright © 2020 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved. Distribution rights contained in T&Cs.

  9. The Chip Insider® Equipment & Emerging Markets Test & Related Equipment Outlook • Scenarios for COVID-19 recovery • Where is Semi manufacturing heading? • Changes since last forecast • 2021 recovery followed by cyclical growth • Test relative to Electronics and ICs • VLSI’s view VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster Copyright © 2020 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved. Distribution rights contained in T&Cs.

  10. Cyclical Growth for Test VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster Copyright © 2020 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved. Distribution rights contained in T&Cs.

  11. semiStockWEEK: VLSI's Semiconductor Stock Indices slipped this week along with the market as the COVID-19 crisis continues. Semiconductors 0%, Equipment -3%, EDA +1%, Electronic Materials 0%. VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster Copyright © 2020 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved. Distribution rights contained in T&Cs.

  12. Semiconductor Stocks: Weekly Growth and Forward P/E Ratios by Company VLSI’s Semiconductor Stock Index slipped 0.4% despite strong gains from STMicroelectronics, ON Semiconductor, and MaxLinear IDM -0.3% Foundry & OSAT -1.7% Fabless & Fablite +0.1% Weekly Gains 4/24/2020 Price Change Price Change Forward P/E Forward P/E Semiconductor Stocks Semiconductor Stocks IDM Intel Fab-lite to Fabless AMD -1.8% 12 35 -0.7% Micron ON Semiconductor -3.4% 6.8% 9 Analog Devices Broadcom 21 11 3.0% -0.4% 10 AMD AMDAnalog Devices ADIAmkorAMKR ASE ASXBroadcom AVGOIBMIBM Infineon IFNNY.PK Intel INTCJCET600584.SS Kingpak Technology6238.TWO Micron Technology MU On Semiconductor ONPanasonic PC MagnaChip Semiconductor MXMaxim MXIM MaxLinear MXLMediaTek 2454.TW NVIDIA NVDAQualcomm QCOM Samsung Electronics 005930.KS Silicon Laboratories SLABSkyworks SWKS SMIC SMI STMicroelectronics STM Texas Instruments TXNTSMC TSMUMC UMCWestern Digital WDCXilinx XLNX Samsung Electronics -4.0% IBM 10 3.8% – SK hynix STMicroelectronics -3.2% 7.6% Infineon MagnaChip Semiconductor -6.9% 3.3% 15 13 20 Western Digital -3.9% 6 Maxim 24 1.1% Foundry & OSAT Amkor ASE JCET Kingpak Technology SMIC TSMC MaxLinear MediaTek NVIDIA Panasonic Qualcomm Silicon Laboratories Skyworks 20 – 32 29 13 26 14 6.4% -5.3% -0.9% -3.5% -0.2% -0.3% 1.2% 10 15 68 – -0.3% -3.6% -2.6% -2.9% -6.6% -1.8% 1404 17 UMC 15 Texas Instruments Xilinx 23 27 5.7% 0.3% 0.8% VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster Copyright © 2020 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved. Distribution rights contained in T&Cs.

  13. Chip Equipment & Related Stocks: Weekly Growth and Forward P/E Ratios by Company VLSI’s Semiconductor Equipment Stock Index fell 2.6%, ASM International came out on top. WFE -1.6% Test -3.3% Assembly -4.8% Weekly Gains 0 4/24/2020 Price Change Price Change Forward P/E Forward P/E Equipment Stocks Equipment Stocks Wafer Process: Test: Applied Materials ASM International ASML KLA Lam Research Onto Innovation -2.7% 6.3% -1.3% 2.3% -4.4% -4.4% 12 18 26 17 15 – Advantest Teradyne FormFactor -4.4% -2.9% -2.7% – 18 20 Applied Materials AMAT Advantest ATEYY ASM International ASMI ASM Lithography ASML ASM Pacific 0522.HK BE Semiconductor BESIY.PK FormFactorFORMKLA KLAC Kulicke & Soffa KLIC Lam Research LRCX Onto Innovation ONTONikon 7731 Teradyne TER Tokyo Electron Limited 8035 Veeco VECO Assembly: BESI -2.9% – Nikon TEL Kulicke & Soffa ASM Pacific Technology -1.7% -9.8% 12 0.0% -9.1% – – Veeco Instruments -1.3% 11 VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster Copyright © 2020 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved. Distribution rights contained in T&Cs.

  14. Electronic Materials Stocks: Weekly Growth and Forward P/E Ratios by Company VLSI’s EDA Stock Index was led up 0.6% by Cadence. Weekly Gains EDA & Electronic Materials Stocks 4/24/2020 Price Change Price Change EDA & Electronic Materials Stocks Forward P/E Forward P/E VLSI’s Electronics Materials Stock Index gave back 0.2%, DuPont was this week’s biggest winner. EDA DNP -3.2% – Cadence Synopsys Electronic Materials 30 26 DuPont JSR Shin-Etsu 4 – – 2.4% -1.3% 9.2% -1.5% -5.0% BASF BASFY Cadence CNDS DNP 7912 JSR 4185 SOI.PA Synopsys SNPS Cabot Microelectronics CCMP DuPont DD Shin-Etsu 4063 SOITEC Tokyo Ohka 4186 BASF Cabot Microelectronics -3.7% -6.3% 2 SOITEC Tokyo Ohka 8.2% 0.5% – – 15 VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster Copyright © 2020 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved. Distribution rights contained in T&Cs.

  15. Companies Companies Max Growth Weekly Growth VLSI’s Indices of Chip Industry Stocks Min Growth Range of S&P 500 S&P 500 The Prior Week's Close Growth Growth Down Up Semi Stocks Equipment Stocks Materials Stocks EDA Stocks Semi Stocks Equipment Stocks Materials Stocks EDA Stocks 20-Sep-19 27-Sep-19 04-Oct-19 11-Oct-19 18-Oct-19 25-Oct-19 01-Nov-19 08-Nov-19 15-Nov-19 22-Nov-19 29-Nov-19 06-Dec-19 13-Dec-19 20-Dec-19 27-Dec-19 03-Jan-20 10-Jan-20 17-Jan-20 24-Jan-20 31-Jan-20 07-Feb-20 14-Feb-20 21-Feb-20 28-Feb-20 06-Mar-20 13-Mar-20 20-Mar-20 27-Mar-20 03-Apr-20 10-Apr-20 17-Apr-20 24-Apr-20 85.4 83.6 84.6 86.0 86.2 88.2 90.3 91.7 92.0 90.0 90.9 92.6 96.7 99.2 100.0 100.3 101.5 104.7 106.1 98.4 102.5 106.5 103.7 93.1 91.8 81.1 69.6 78.3 77.1 85.6 89.1 88.7 84.5 83.6 84.4 86.4 86.7 92.4 92.6 94.9 97.0 92.0 93.7 94.7 98.0 99.9 100.0 100.2 100.9 104.8 105.1 98.4 101.3 106.6 99.3 90.4 91.0 78.3 65.2 78.7 73.4 84.0 88.4 86.1 94.5 93.8 93.1 95.0 97.5 100.0 101.2 103.2 101.5 98.7 96.7 95.5 100.0 100.1 100.0 98.9 99.2 101.0 100.5 96.0 100.4 101.0 98.1 85.5 84.8 71.0 67.0 76.6 72.6 82.6 82.7 82.5 95.0 94.7 96.0 96.0 94.5 94.9 94.8 96.1 97.6 95.9 100.1 95.5 96.9 99.6 100.0 100.5 104.7 106.4 107.8 103.8 107.2 114.2 106.4 96.2 95.1 90.7 78.4 88.7 89.9 99.7 111.3 111.9 -2.6% -2.1% 1.1% 1.7% 0.2% 2.4% 2.4% 1.5% 0.4% -2.2% 1.0% 1.8% 4.5% 2.6% 0.8% 0.3% 1.2% 3.2% 1.3% -7.3% 4.2% 3.9% -2.6% -10.2% -1.5% -11.6% -14.2% 12.6% -1.6% 11.1% 4.0% -0.4% 1.3% -1.1% 1.1% 2.3% 0.3% 6.6% 0.2% 2.5% 2.1% -5.1% 1.8% 1.1% 3.5% 1.9% 0.1% 0.2% 0.7% 3.9% 0.3% -6.3% 2.9% 5.3% -6.9% -8.9% 0.6% -13.9% -16.7% 20.6% -6.7% 14.5% 5.2% -2.6% -1.3% -0.7% -0.8% 2.0% 2.7% 2.5% 1.3% 1.9% -1.6% -2.8% -2.0% -1.2% 4.7% 0.1% -0.1% -1.1% 0.2% 1.8% -0.5% -4.5% 4.6% 0.6% -2.8% -12.9% -0.7% -16.3% -5.7% 14.4% -5.3% 13.8% 0.2% -0.2% 0.8% -0.4% 1.4% 0.0% -1.5% 0.4% -0.1% 1.3% 1.6% -1.8% 4.4% -4.6% 1.5% 2.7% 0.4% 0.5% 4.2% 1.7% 1.3% -3.8% 3.3% 6.5% -6.9% -9.5% -1.2% -4.6% -13.6% 13.1% 1.4% 10.9% 11.7% 0.6% 19 16 34 35 28 46 36 37 31 7 37 33 48 39 29 23 32 45 29 3 45 47 6 0 18 0 3 52 14 54 41 17 5.7% 3.7% 10.1% 9.0% 11.2% 15.6% 9.9% 12.5% 10.8% 5.7% 5.0% 8.2% 10.7% 12.5% 5.9% 9.5% 7.2% 19.1% 14.9% 2.2% 21.4% 27.5% 4.5% -0.8% 7.9% -2.1% 15.3% 36.1% 17.4% 38.2% 17.0% 9.2% -35 -37 -20 -15 -23 -7 -15 -14 -20 -44 -14 -19 -3 -13 -23 -24 -22 -10 -25 -51 -10 -8 -49 -55 -35 -55 -52 -3 -41 -1 -10 -37 -8.3% -12.1% -3.5% -4.4% -6.0% -16.3% -12.1% -4.2% -5.0% -17.7% -15.0% -4.8% -1.4% -8.4% 2.7% -3.4% -4.8% -3.8% -10.8% -17.7% -11.7% -10.0% -17.1% -21.3% -11.0% -26.6% -28.9% -11.7% -15.1% -2.3% -6.1% -9.8% 14.0% 15.8% 13.6% 13.4% 17.2% 31.9% 22.0% 16.7% 15.8% 23.4% 20.0% 13.0% 12.1% 20.9% 8.6% 12.9% 12.0% 22.9% 25.7% 19.9% 33.1% 37.5% 21.6% 20.5% 18.9% 24.5% 44.2% 47.8% 32.5% 40.5% 23.1% 19.0% 92.3 91.4 91.1 91.7 92.2 93.3 94.7 95.5 96.3 96.0 96.9 97.1 97.8 99.4 100.0 99.8 100.8 102.8 101.7 99.5 102.7 104.3 103.0 91.2 91.7 83.7 71.1 78.4 76.8 86.1 88.7 87.6 -0.5% -1.0% -0.3% 0.6% 0.5% 1.2% 1.5% 0.9% 0.9% -0.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.7% 1.7% 0.6% -0.2% 0.9% 2.0% -1.0% -2.1% 3.2% 1.6% -1.3% -11.5% 0.6% -8.8% -15.0% 10.3% -2.1% 12.1% 3.0% -1.3% VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster Copyright © 2020 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved. Distribution rights contained in T&Cs.

More Related