Spatial economics and location theory – implications for modeling environmental impacts of future development patterns

1. Spatial economics and location theory – implications for modeling environmental impacts of future development patterns Brian Voigt NR385 – Ecological Economics Brian Voigt NR385 – Ecological Economics

2. Early City Development? • Agricultural surplus • technological innovation: irrigation, plow • The defensive city • fortified storage facility • The religious city • worship on a grander scale • scale economies in the provision of religion

3. A Brief History of Location Theory • David Ricardo (1772 – 1823) • theory of differential rent based on variation in fertility • J-H von Thünen (1738 - 1850) • model based on a central market place with varying land uses radiating outward • Walter Christaller (1893 – 1969) • theory of central place defined by hexagonal pattern based on top-down approach • August Lösch (1906 – 1945) • bottom up approach modeled after Christaller • William Alonso (1933 – 1999) • model of demand for land as a function of distance from CBD • locus of opportunities v indifference surface

4. von Thünen’s Isolated State

5. A Brief History of Location Theory • David Ricardo (1772 – 1823) • theory of differential rent based on variation in fertility • J-H von Thünen (1738 - 1850) • model based on a central market place with varying land uses radiating outward • Walter Christaller (1893 – 1969) • theory of central place defined by functions of cities • hexagonal pattern based on top-down approach • August Lösch (1906 – 1945) • bottom up approach modeled after Christaller • William Alonso (1933 – 1999) • model of demand for land as a function of distance from CBD • locus of opportunities v indifference surface

6. Villages at vertices Town = City = Conurbation = Christaller & Lösch

7. A Brief History of Location Theory • David Ricardo (1772 – 1823) • theory of differential rent based on variation in fertility • J-H von Thünen (1738 - 1850) • model based on a central market place with varying land uses radiating outward • Walter Christaller (1893 – 1969) • theory of central place defined by hexagonal pattern based on top-down approach • August Lösch (1906 – 1945) • bottom up approach modeled after Christaller • William Alonso (1933 – 1999) • Location and Land Use (1964) • model of demand for land as a function of distance from CBD • locus of opportunities v indifference surface

8. Evolution Of Urban Form • Topographic constraints • Ports and waterways (1840s) • Walking city • 2 mile radius = 1 hr walk from edge to center (pre-1850s) • Transportation options • Horse drawn and electric trolley – expanded ring to 5 miles around city, linear development, empty space b/t trolley lines (1850s – 1900) • Cars and buses – expanded ring to 10 mile, fill in between trolley lines, primarily auto dependent (1930s) • Decentralization of the central city • Redefining the American dream – post-WWII development of the 1940s • Suburban, ex-urban, and edge cities • Sprawling development

9. City Statistics • 1950: 70% of population lived in cities • 2000: 60% of population lived in suburbs • Of the 157 urbanized areas in 1950 • 69 million people and 12,715 sq miles • Same 157 urbanized areas in 2000 • 155 million people and 52,388 sq miles • Net result • 2.25 x population • 4.12 x land area

10. Factors of Influence on Urban Form • Social factors • segregation – racial, class, religious • congestion • Economic • maximizing individual satisfaction (Alonso, 1964) • cheap land and subsidized transportation costs • Technological change • transportation • telecommunication – substitute for human interaction? • Government policy • Federal – highways, water & sewer • State & local – land use planning

11. Land Use Planning Land Use Planning • Originated in the 1920s as a means to protect human health and welfare from neighboring industrial development • Can we protect people from themselves? • Segregation of land uses • Causes and characteristics of sprawl • affordable transportation, federally funded highways • affordable home mortgage rates post WWII • low density, non-contiguous land patterns • Can we plan our way out of sprawl? Portland v Phoenix • Originated in the 1920s as a means to protect human health and welfare from neighboring industrial development • Can we protect people from themselves? • Segregation of land uses • Causes and characteristics of sprawl • affordable transportation, federally funded highways • affordable home mortgage rates post WWII • low density, non-contiguous land patterns • Can we plan our way out of sprawl? Portland v Phoenix

12. Modeling with UrbanSim • University of Washington, Dept of Urban Design and Planning • www.urbansim.org • Dynamic disequilibrium approach • avoid oversimplification of general equilibrium conditions • perfectly competitive market, products are homogenous, resources are mobile, present and future costs are known to all • Actor adjustment processes occur at varying rates • short: travel behavior • medium: household / business location • long: real estate development • Simulates annual evolution of households, jobs and real estate • individual-based for household and employment location • grid-based real estate market • Allows for hypothesis testing on specific policy alternatives or impact evaluation of scheduled events from Waddell, et al, 2003

13. UrbanSim cnt’d • Model architecture • suite of tools that interact through a data store • each component is recalculated annually • exogenous inputs • macroeconomic model predicts future conditions based on logistic regression analysis • travel demand forecasts future travel conditions • user input – changing land use policy, scheduled events • Model components • accessibility – normal good w/positive economic value • economic transition – distribution of jobs through employment sectors • demographic transition – distribution of households by type over time • employment mobility – P(job moves from one location to another) • household mobility – P(household moves from one place to another) • employment location – P(new or relocated job, located at a particular site) • household location – P(new or relocated household, located at particular site) from Waddell, et al, 2003

14. Data Economic land value, employment Biophysical topography, soils Infrastructure roads, transit Planning & zoning land use, available housing Census population, household income, race, age Case example Chittenden, Addison and Lamoille Counties Model calibration 1990 – 2002 Model run 2000 – 2015 Coordinated research effort: habitat fragmentation northern forest research EPA grant Applying UrbanSim to Northern VT

15. Model Outputs – Land Use Change: 1980 - 1994

16. Conclusions • Variation from early theories • global market place • changing technology • Utility of current modeling effort • model outputs inform planning process & ecosystem modeling • export to GIS for spatial analysis and visualization • Relevance to land use planning • assess impacts of current development patterns on environmental quality • test impacts of alternative land use policies • improved alternative to current growth model • minimize habitat fragmentation, enhance restoration, and protect species biodiversity

17. "… we have been the most prodigal of people with land, and for years we wasted it with impunity ... no matter how much we fouled it, there was always more over the next hill, or so it seemed." William Whyte (1968), The Last Landscape