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The President III

The President III. 2/16/2012. Clearly Stated Learning Objectives. Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: understand and interpret the United States Constitution and apply it to the present (the sections on the presidency and Electoral College).

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The President III

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  1. The President III 2/16/2012

  2. Clearly Stated Learning Objectives • Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: • understand and interpret the United States Constitution and apply it to the present (the sections on the presidency and Electoral College). • assess the 2008 & 2012 Presidential Elections without resorting to partisan bickering. • identify and explain the role of formal and informal institutions and their effect on policy.

  3. Office Hours and Readings • Readings- Chapter 10 on the Bureaucracy • Office Hours • Today 11-2 • No office hours on Monday

  4. Winning the Electoral College The Way to become president

  5. Who the Electoral College Helps • Big States • Small States • Swing States

  6. It helps the president

  7. Who Does it Hurt • Third Parties • Remote States • Partisan States

  8. It is not rocket science! Winning the election

  9. Electoral College Do’s and Don’ts DO Don’t Spend time where you can’t win Spend time where you will win Spend time in remote areas • Treat the Race as 51 separate elections • Win Your Home State • Win your V-P’s State

  10. Ignore Popular Votes and Focus on the Map

  11. Focus on the Swing States • These are the states that matter • The Electoral College is Winner take all • Obama wins 10 of 11 swing states in 2008

  12. Spend!

  13. Avoid The October Surprise

  14. The Electoral College Still Favors the Democrats Running the Numbers in 2012

  15. President Obama Will be Tough To beat • The Last incumbents who lost were • 1992 • 1980 • 1976 • President Obama has no primary challenger • The President plans to spend 1 billion dollars

  16. A Republican Win: Step 1

  17. A Republican Win Step 2

  18. A Republican Win Step 3

  19. A Republican Win Step 4

  20. Not Bloody Likely Reforming the Electoral College

  21. A National Popular Vote • How it Would Work • Advantages

  22. A National Popular Vote • Disadvantages • Unanticipated Consequences

  23. Not that Great The Constitutional Basis of presidential Power

  24. The Founders Vision • There needs to be an executive • The balance between impotence and tyranny • The office has outstripped this vision

  25. The Formal Powers are Limited • Serve as administrative head • Lead the armed forces • Appointment, pardons and treaties • Give a speech • Call emergency

  26. The Modern Responsibilities are Not • The President is now the dominant branch • It performs many new functions • We expect the president to solve the world’s problems!

  27. Presidential Success Using other powers

  28. The President • Constitutional powers are • Vague • Limited • The Demands of the Office are Great • Presidents must then use all the tools at their disposal

  29. The Vice President • Picked for different purposes • Limited Constitutional Power • At the discretion of the President • Can be a liability • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3hZtW_q_6Ug&feature=related

  30. Why did McCain Choose Palin? • Get space between himself and Bush • Get someone who was not an old man • Get someone to appeal to the conservative base • McCain loses no matter who he picks

  31. Executive Stuff Executive Orders Executive Agreements Bilateral agreements with other nations Carry the weight of a treaty Not that great of a power The Senate hates these • Carry the weight of law • Must be on a single issue • Cannot require new revenues • Die when the president leaves

  32. The Veto • The “Smart Bomb” in the legislative process • Most vetoes are sustained • Can be overused • Threats work better

  33. Politics by other Means Informal powers

  34. The Power to Persuade • Richard Neustadt • Presidential Power is the Power To Persuade

  35. Persuasion • What is Persuasion • You have to convince them by what ever means necessary • Getting Decision makers to do what you want • The Johnson Treatment

  36. Getting things Done: Trading Favors • Prestige of the office • Granting New Favors • Calling in Past Favors

  37. Getting Things Done: Reprisals • Monetary Threats • Campaign Threats • Policy Threats

  38. Why Persuasion Fails • Threats are Not Credible • Favors are not worth it • Electoral Security and temporal forces

  39. Why President Obama is Currently having difficulty persuading • Republicans do not want to compromise • Democrats are already on board • The Election is getting close

  40. Everything is inside

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