1. Drought Monitoring and Prediction Kingtse C Mo Climate Prediction Center NCEP/NWS/NOAA CTB SAB meeting 2007

2. The impact of the CTB • CTB accelerates this work • The research on the ensemble NLDAS products was inspired from the recommendation by the SAB to focus on the MME. • CTB encourages the collaboration between the CPC and the EMC and outside researchers

3. A good example of Technology transfer and Research operations Partners: CPC: Kingtse Mo , Wanru Wu and Muthuvel Chelliah EMC: Ken Mitchell, Youlong Xia NASA GSFC: Brian Cosgrove and Charles Alonge

4. Research Accomplishments • Deliver the best NLDAS forcing with the elevation adjusted precipitation and biases corrected fields (NASA) • Improve the Noah model(EMC) • Inter compare four NLDAS (Noah, RR, Mosaic and VIC) and compare with observations • Examine the relationships among E, P and soil moisture revealed by NLDAS. • Verify the week1 and week2 forecasts and correction of systematic errors. • Study the regional preference of drought and the associated physical mechanisms

5. Research  Operations • 1. Four NLDASes (Noah, VIC, Mosaic and SAC) are in operation • at the EMC in near real time. All NLDASes are driven by the same forcing. • 2. Based on research, a web page has been established to support the CPC Drought Outlook • Assess the current drought/floods conditions • Atmospheric and hydro meteorological conditions in support of drought/floods • Assess week1 and week2 conditions and in support of the CPC hazard assessment. • Drought briefing is given each month to review conditions of the previous month.

6. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

9. P patterns have been persistent Wet: S-Plains Dry: Southeast Late monsoon

10. Soil Moisture anom Ensemble mean July 2007 Each individual model Dry SM over the Southeast Wet over the Great Plains

11. Soil moisture anom Change Total SM anomaly change from June to July 2007 Monsoon region – increase S-Plains –increase N-Plains –decrease SE- not much change

12. P over S-Plains GPLLJ lat

17. FY08 CTB Priority forNIDIS -Drought • Hydrological conditions from multi NLDAS ensemble products on time scales from weekly, intraseasonal, interannual to decadal • Coupled and un-coupled downscaling of dynamical forecasts to serve hydrological community • Objective drought outlook based on consolidation of multi model ensemble and statistical tools • Improve dynamical seasonal forecasts based on atmosphere-ocean-land coupling

18. Near Future (2008 Plan) • Four NLDAS will be performed from 1979-present and then continue to run near real time with forcing derived from the NARR • Anomalies will be based on longer time period. • Add monitoring/forecast of heat waves/ cold spells • Bring the 50+ (1948 on ward) Noah run to operation in near real time to study historical perspective of drought/flood conditions. • Start to test downscaling with forcing from the GFS forecast to drive NLDAS

19. Long term planA proposal to the CTB Run five NLDAS (Noah, VIC, Mosaic and Sacramento, and CLM3) from 1950-present with bias corrected forcing and continue as real time operation. Establish monitoring with ensemble NLDAS with a longer climate data base. Perform ensemble downscaling for hydrological applications

20. Total SM percentile for selected River Forecast Center areas Vic(Blue), Noah (black) From 1950-2001 For RFC lower Mississippi, the VIC and the Noah agree well For Missouri basin, there are large differences

21. Thanks • We appreciate any comments and suggestions from the SAB on both the research direction, operational products and applications • We do need support from the CTB