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Basic Probability Concepts

Section 01. Basic Probability Concepts. Probability. Probability is the foundation of the P exam! Be sure you understand all the concepts in Section 1 They should be familiar from Stat 414 These are the basics that the rest of the manual builds upon Also, easy points on exam.

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Basic Probability Concepts

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  1. Section 01 Basic Probability Concepts

  2. Probability • Probability is the foundation of the P exam! • Be sure you understand all the concepts in Section 1 • They should be familiar from Stat 414 • These are the basics that the rest of the manual builds upon • Also, easy points on exam

  3. Probability Spaces and Events • Mutually exclusive • Cannot occur simultaneously; events have no intersection • Exhaustive • Outcomes combine to cover entire probability space; i.e., at least one outcome must occur whenever experiment is performed • Partition • Events are mutually exclusive AND exhaustive

  4. Rules of Probability • REMEMBER: Union=“or” ; Intersection=“and” • If , then

  5. DeMorgan’s Laws • Both rules generalize to any number of events

  6. Actex, Ex 1-3, pg 42 Suppose that: Find:

  7. Actex, Sec 1 #4, pg 50 An auto insurance company has 10,000 policyholders. Each policyholder is classified as: • Young or old • Male or female • Married or single Of these policyholders, 3000 are young, 4600 are male, and 7000 are married. They can also be classified as 1320 young males, 3010 married males, and 1400 young married persons. Finally, 600 policyholders are young married males. How many policyholders are young, female, and single?

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