1. Jack Hayes NOAA Assistant Administrator for Weather Services, and National Weather Service DirectorNorman, OK, October 10-12, 2007 National Weather Service Multifunction Phased Array Radar: View from Operations

2. The Improvement Chain Balanced Science Technology Infusion NOAA Research Integration Information Technology Data Assimilation Research Dissemination Action Observations Modeling Predictions Feedback

3. Radar is critical to NWS Mission • Radar will remain as an operational sensor in the foreseeable future given its proven value. • NEXRAD reduced tornado injuries and deaths by up to 40% and 45%, respectively [Simmons & Sutter, WF, 2005] • Up to 47% of NWS text and digital products utilize radar data. A Typical Year Brings: • 7 Hurricanes • 1,000 Tornadoes • 5,000 Floods • 10,000 Violent Thunderstorms • Drought Conditions • 500 Deaths; 5,000 Injuries; $14 Billion in Losses

4. WSR-3 WSR-57 WSR-74 WSR-88D Robust NWS Science and Technology Infusion History 1992 1976 Ca. 1957 1958

5. WSR-57 Toward Service Improvements May 19, 1960 / Tornado 19 Aug 2007 PAR PAR KTLX KTLX

6. Tornado Warnings Flash Flood Warnings Modernization Modernization NWS is Performance Driven Tornado lead time jumps from about 6 min to about 10 min after modernization Flash flood lead time jumps from about 20 min to about 50 min after modernization

7. Our Vision for the Future 2025 Vision • Neighborhood-scale warnings of: • High-Impact Weather events including a 45 to 60 minute tornado lead time • Increasing flash flood lead time from 1 to 3 hours • Increasing quantitative precipitation estimation accuracy by reducing bias four-fold • – All enabled by the integration of surveillance radar and sensors sampling the boundary layer driving regional integrated cloud-scale models and intelligent computing along with adaptive systems • --Fewer deaths and injuries will result from longer lead times and improved accuracy

8. The Future: What will R&D bring? Time = 0 minutes Storm-scale Model Forecast at 60 min Probabilistic Tornado Warning Projected low-level reflectivity at 1 hour from storm-scale NWP model Most Likely Tornado Path 30% Developing thunderstorm.. 50% 70% T+60min T+50min T+40min T+20min T+30min 60 Minute Forecast Current

9. The Challenge: Demonstrate Service significance • Value of new technology to NOAA mission should be well demonstrated • The business case must rest on value/benefit • Want compelling examples of how warnings and services are improved

10. Backup

11. The Future? What will the R+D bring?

12. Toward Service Improvement:Tropical Storm Erin TVS near Norge, OK PAR PAR 19 August 2007 PARVCP 12 BMX 60 sector Images ~ 43 s KTLX KTLX WSR-88D VCP 12 Images ~ 4.1 min

13. Toward Service Improvements May 19, 1960 / May 29, 2004 Tornado

14. NOAA’s NWS in Your NeighborhoodDoppler Radars

15. Informational Needs & RequirementsDerived from NOAA NWS Mission Needs NEXRAD resolution

16. Enabling Technologies Surveillance Radars Adaptive Data Integration Diverse, Short Wavelength Gap-Filling Radars (SWR) Radar Partnerships Vision Pulls the Radar Roadmap 2025 Vision Neighborhood-scale warnings of: (i) High Impact Weather events including a 45± minute tornado lead time; (ii) Hurricanes & Inundationimprovements in QPF increasing flash flood lead time from 1 to 3 hours; (iii) Drought & WaterResource managementfour-fold improvement in QPE reducing in-rain bias from 4 mm to 1 mm – All enabled by the integration of surveillance radar, short-wavlength radars and other sensors sampling the boundary layer, driving regional integrated cloud-scale models and intelligent along with adaptive systems. WSR-88D (NPI) A4 A1 A2,3 B1 B4 B2 MPAR C2 C1 D1 D2 D3 SWR E1,2,3 Targets of Opportunity R&D Fiscal Year (CONCEPTUAL TIMELINE) Acquisition /Deploy.

17. The Future? What will the R+D bring?