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Climate Review for WY 2004 and Outlook for WY 2005

Climate Review for WY 2004 and Outlook for WY 2005. Nate Mantua, Ph.D. Climate Impacts Group University of Washington Annual Fall Forecast Meeting September 22, 2004, Portland OR . Global Average Annual Surface Temperatures, 1870-2003. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/gcag/gcag.html.

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Climate Review for WY 2004 and Outlook for WY 2005

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  1. Climate Review for WY 2004 and Outlook for WY 2005 Nate Mantua, Ph.D. Climate Impacts Group University of Washington Annual Fall Forecast Meeting September 22, 2004, Portland OR

  2. Global Average Annual Surface Temperatures, 1870-2003 http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/gcag/gcag.html

  3. Oct 2003 - Feb 2004 US Climate % Normal Precip Temperature (Deg F)

  4. March-April 2004 US Climate % Normal Precip Temperature (Deg F)

  5. 300 mb height anomalies (meters): March-April 2004 March-April 2004: a west coast ridge that would not quitBlame it on the butterflies?

  6. Water Year 2004 US Climate % Normal Precip Temperature (Deg F)

  7. NOAA-CPC climate outlook from last fall: • climatological odds for fall/winter PNW precip • in spring 2004 odds tilted in favor of above average precip. • (forecast from August 17, 2003)

  8. NOAA-CPC climate outlook from last fall: • climatological odds for fall/winter/spring PNW temperatures • (forecast from August 17, 2003)

  9. Summary: NW climate in water year 2003-04 • Overall a warm and dry water year; average precipitation from Oct-Feb, then a very warm and dry March. • The water year as a whole was warm/dry throughout most of the western US • CPC forecasts from last August called for “climatological odds” for fall/winter/spring precipitation and temperature • The tropical Pacific was just slightly warm, so forecasts called for “ENSO neutral” conditions (neither El Niño or La Niña) in the tropics

  10. A history of the PDO A history of ENSO warm warm cool 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

  11. Early September tropical ocean temperatures:a weak El Niño is underway

  12. Equatorial Ocean Temperature deviations from the long-term average: 1982-September 2004 82/83 97/98 91/92 02/03 86/87/88 94/95 93 EN

  13. Multi-model forecast summary

  14. Ocean temperature anomaliesAugust 15-September 11, 2004

  15. 2 leading patterns of North Pacific SST since 1950 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 The PDO has been less prominent since the early 1990s-presentFrom Bond et al. 2003, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol 30: 2183-2186. PDO “Victoria Pattern”

  16. Phase plot for the 2 leading patterns of North Pacific wintertime SSTs (5 yr avgs) • The PDO pattern was strong from 1950s through the 1980s • The Victoria pattern was strong from the 1990s through 2003 • In the winter of 2003-2004, the North Pacific was warm, yet the pattern of warmth did not resemble either a PDO or Victoria pattern • From Bond et al. 2003, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol 30: 2183-2186. Victoria pattern index 50s-mid70s late 70s/late 80s PDO index

  17. 1990-97 1999-02 Wintertime SST anomaly patterns 2003

  18. Pacific Ocean Outlook Summary • Current forecasts rate a “weak to moderate El Niño” as most likely situation for fall-winter • PDO? • A simple forecast with skill relies on “PDO persistence + ENSO influence” • Expect weak to moderate warm phase PDO conditions for fall/winter (PDO = +0.5 to +1 st devs for Nino34 = .4 to 1.2) • Other? • consistently warm ocean temperatures in the far N. Pacific have not been captured very well by the PDO index in the period from 1990-2002

  19. CPC Climate Forecastsfor Oct-Nov-Dec 2004, issued September 16 Temperature Precipitation

  20. NOAA/CPC forecasts issued September 16, 2004

  21. Summary and Conclusions • Expect a weak to moderate intensity El Niño for this winter • Nearshore ocean temperatures for OR/WA likely to be warmer than average this winter • NOAA CPC forecast for NW • Increased odds for a warm fall and winter; increased odds for a dry winter, especially over the upper Columbia Basin • Extreme cold, low elevation snows, and extreme flooding has been less frequent than average in past El Niño winters in the PNW region

  22. Climate information • International Research Institute for Climate Prediction http://iri.columbia.edu • Western Regional Climate Center http://www.wrcc.dri.edu • NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center http://cpc.ncep.noaa.gov • Office of the Washington State Climatologist http://www.climate.washington.edu • Oregon Climate Service http://www.ocs.oregonstate.edu

  23. A North-South see-saw in salmon production spring chinook returns to the Columbia River mouth (1000s) Alaska pink and sockeye catch (millions) Cool PDO Warm PDO Cool PDO Warm PDO ???

  24. March 2004 US Climate % Normal Precip Temperature (Deg F)

  25. George Taylor’s outlook OND T OND P JFM T JFM P

  26. George Taylor’s Picks 1994-95 (EN) 1987-88 (EN) 1999-2000 (LN) 1971-72 (LN) W-M El Niño years 1986-87 1987-88 1991-92 1993 (JFM) 1994-95 2002-03 Analog Years

  27. Weak-to-moderate El Niño fall/winter composites OND T OND P JFM T JFM P

  28. Weak-to-moderate El Niño fall/winter composites Surface Temperature Precipitation rate

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