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Future of Telecommunications

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  1. Future of Telecommunications Amit PatelCTO, US Strategic Accounts January 2009

  2. The Future of Telecommunications • 1) Today’s Telecom Environment • 2) Small/Medium Business Telecommunications Trends • 3) What’s Possible in the Next Decade ?

  3. 73M US Homes BROADBAND 65% Penetration 280M US Mobile Phones MOBILITY 90% Penetration What Do We See Today ? • Two very clear growth factors

  4. Consumer Trends – New Generation, New Usages . . . Driving Data Usage • “Connected” generation born with Internet and mobile • A global communication experience: instant information access, multimedia content creation and sharing • A continuum of service usage: SMS, Instant Messaging, Email, Online Gaming, Blogs, File Sharing • Key for the individual social identity: personal blogs, video, picture and music file sharing • Fast evolving preferences following fashion trends • New network applications changing everyone’s life • Blogs: 70M in 2005 – 120M in 2007 • Social Networking: Facebook 26M – 90% growth in 2007 • Banking Transactions: negligible in 2006 – 8M in 2008 • Telecom part of “green” & “socially responsible” culture

  5. What Are We Doing on the Internet ? • 76% of P2Ptraffic is video Non-P2P (client-server) applications • MySpace • Facebook • YouTube • iTunes • Napster • Gaming

  6. It took 200 years to fill the Library of Congress • 57 million documents, 29 million books, 12 million photos • Worldwide, an equal amount of digital info is generatedalmost 100 times per day • One Exabyte = 1 quintillion bytes = 1,152,921,504,606,846,976 bytes (or 1B GB) • 12 Exabytes = Sum of all human produced information (audio, video, text/books) through 1999 (of which 1.5 exabytes was created in 1999 alone) * • Worldwide Information Tracker - http://www.emc.com/leadership/digital-universe/expanding-digital-universe.htmshows 431 Exabytes created and replicated worldwide since 1/1/2008 (to 12/1/08 10pm) ** • That’s 1.2 Exabytes a day !! * University of California at Berkeley study** IDC – The Diverse and Exploding Digital Universe How Much Data Is There ? consumes more bandwidth today than the entire Internet did in 2000

  7. Today • Wireless Access Technologies • Speeds: 100% per year ! • An even faster, cheaper bandwidth capability • Ubiquitous broadband coverage Mobile Broadband Peak rate doubles every year and is increasing ! 1000 Mbps UMB LTE WiMAX FDD 100 Mbps WiMAX TDD HSPA+ 10 Mbps 1xEVDO Rev. B 1xEVDO Rev. A 1xEVDO Rev. 0 HSDPA 1 Mbps EDGE UMTS GPRS CDMA 2000 100 Kbps CDMA 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 10 Kbps ‘Peak rates are the maximum under a perfect RF condition. Actual rates may be much lower depending on RF conditions’ How Fast Are Data Speeds Growing Across Fixed and Mobile Networks ? • Wireline Access Technologies • Speeds: +50% per year • Faster connections: more consumption • Broadband/home: +20% over the last few years and will be boosted by HD video

  8. US Subscribers Based on CDG, GSMA and internal estimates Wireless Phone Explosion 280M Phones90% Penetration We’re almost at the cell phone ‘saturation’ point . . . But there’s still lots of device growth as consumers swap older technology with new 3G/4G phones

  9. The Handset as the Enabler of New Usage Watching a single half hour video on the Internet consumes as much bandwidth as sending 200 emails a day for an entire year. • Experimenting With New Applications • Increasing The Time Spent on Communication Experiences Source: MMetrics, March 2008 Source: iSuppli, April 2008 Smart devices are key to high growth in applications and revenue from new business models

  10. Other Key Technology Trends Technology Trends Integrated Circuits x2 in density/speedevery 18-24 months Photonics x2 in transmission capacityevery year Storage x2 in storage densityevery9 months Displays x2 in pixelsevery 2 years Wireless x2 in peak data rateevery year Software x2 in operating system size every 2 years

  11. The Future of Telecommunications • 1) Today’s Telecom Environment • 2) Small/Medium Business Telecommunications Trends • 3) What’s Possible in the Next Decade ?

  12. T1 / DSL/ Fiber / Ethernet • 1.5 Mbps / 10 Mbps / 100 Mbps /1 Gbps / 10 Gbps / 100 Gbps(Bandwidth needs of SMBs are gorwing rapidly) • Multi-location VPNs, LAN emulation • One stop for all voice needs, Hosted VoIP, unlimited calling plans • Hosted Messaging, Security, Back-up Services, Hosted Website, Video conferencing, Teleworker Support • WiFi/3G/4G, Fixed-Mobile Convergence, Dual Mode Phones Key Small/Medium Business (SMB) Needs Ubiquitous connectivity Wireless enablement Other hosted applications Local Phone LD BroadbandInternet Access

  13. View of VoIP SMB Offers in the Marketplace • Basic “Plain Old Telephone Service” (POTS) Replacement • Typical Feature Offerings: • Caller ID Call Forwarding Call Logs Three-Way Calling • Voice Mail Do Not Disturb Simultaneous Ring Visual Voice Mail • Speed Dial Unified Messaging Click to Dial Conferencing • E911 Find Me / Follow Me Call Return Call Transfer • Advanced Feature Offerings: • Video Calling Presence/Availability Instant Messaging Location • Web Portals with a GUI Interface to allow for simpler usage of features • Most Providers Offer a Variety of Choices and Bundles • limited Long Distance or all you can use LD for a low cost • economical International Calling Plans and Choices VoIP Is More Reliable Now – and More Feature RichThan Traditional Phone Service

  14. Examples of Web Portal and PC/Phone Clients Two ways to access VoIP features: • Web portal access • PC/phone client Both enable views of more communications information, and easier manipulation of features

  15. Find Me Follow Me • Sally is a busy woman. A successful business owner, two kids active in the community, but travels frequently…and even squeezes in the occasional vacation. She needs to make sure she receives calls from a couple of key clients wherever she is, but uses the capabilities of a web portal to help manage her time to maximize efficiency by determining who reaches her and when. And where – office phone, home phone, cell phone, hotel… • Sally uses Find me Follow me to set up profiles – for example, she created 6 profiles and names them Work, Meeting, Travel, Evening, Weekend, and Vacation. By then selecting her current profile, she instantly changes the routing for all incoming callers. Her special clients, office manager, and her family always route to her cell phone…unless she’s in a meeting, when they go to her secretary. Employees reach her office phone or secretary during work hours, but go to voice mail at other times. Unknown callers always route to her secretary during the day, voice mail other times. While on vacation, her main client and secretary route to the hotel or her cell phone, business associates get routed to the secretary and friends route to her cell phone voice mail. She even uses the web portal from the hotels “house” PC to scan her voice mails. To Voicemail To Secretary

  16. Call Pick Up, Call Hold/Retrieve, Click to Dial, Click to Answer • Everyone in the office has their own IP phone in their office and share a common SMB number. • Sally’s is in Dave’s office when her client calls, She knows she can’t make it to her office to pick up in time. • Sally dials a code and picks up the call on Dave’s phone in his office without running down the hall. She has the option to place the call on hold and retrieve it in her office. • If Sally remains in Dave’s office, he still has the option to place/receive calls via his PC client.

  17. Small Office Auto-Attendant • In a small office, several extensions cover different services such as billing, sales, ordering. Using Basic Auto-Attendant, a shop offers better customer relation management before reaching to the specific person(s). • A new customer Chris dials into the office and receives a greeting “Welcome to Hillside Florist, if you know your party’s extension number, please dial the extension number now, otherwise, for sales press 1, …” Chris presses 2 to reach the ordering department. • Mark, a long-time customer, dials into the main number and knows the extension of shipping, he presses 324 to reach the shipping Ext 324 Dial 2

  18. Tele-Worker, Selective Call Acceptance, Click to Dial • Sally is on a conference call with her clients and suppliers using her PC Client on her laptop. • To minimize interruptions during the call, she predetermines which calls to accept or redirect to voice mail. She can then retrieve the voice mail on her laptop during the conference call. • Sally checks her voice mail. A customer has a question about one of her products. Sally checks the customer’s status in the PC Client’s buddy list, and sees that they are available for phone calls. • Sally calls her customer using the PC client’s click to dial capability

  19. Click-to-dial with Any Dial • Sally is on a conference call with her clients and suppliers using her PC Client on her laptop. • After her call, she checks her call history on her service provider’s web portal to see if she had any missed calls. She sees that her brother John had called. By simply clicking on the missed number, she can automatically dial him back from the call history. John reminds Sally that tomorrow is their mother’s birthday and that she should order flowers from the two of them. • Sally’s mother lives in Tampa, FL and doesn’t know of any local florists. She searches the internet. Her search results give her two flower shops with their phone numbers. Using the browser’s Any Dial plug in feature, Sally can click on either number to place a call.

  20. Fixed Mobile Convergence • Cellular – WiFi Convergence • Ability for phone to work in cellular mode (outside) and WiFi mode (inside) • Cellular Extension • Ability for mobile phone to be part of PBX/Centrex group – to leverage extension dialing, call park/retrieve, call pick-up, etc. • Seamless Handoff • Ability to start a call in wireless or WiFi mode, and transition inside/outside without the call dropping • Femto Cell • WiFi like device that works at the same macro cellular spectrum in the home

  21. The Future of Telecommunications • 1) Today’s Telecom Environment • 2) Small/Medium Business Telecommunications Trends • 3) What’s Possible in the Next Decade ?

  22. Connected Home Ubiquitous Broadband – At Home, At The Office, and On The Road Ultra High Bandwidth Services… • Fully interactive experiences • Transport-centric services • Media/content portability • Rich multiscreen entertainment experience • …optimized for any device… Handsets Vehicles Gaming/Tablet …enabling a seamless service experience

  23. What Will be the Next Generation of Applications ? • “Mash Ups” – telecom + web content mashed up together • Location Based Services – maps/directions, social networking, advertising, . . . • Machine to Machine – ambient, cross media, intuitive applications • “Sensors” Within Advertising, Posters, Magazines, . . . • Who knows what more . . . SOCIAL NTWKGSticky NotesMeeting AlertsGeoBlogging PROXIMITY MKTGTargeted opt-in marketing ASSET TRACKINGChild TrackingFleet Tracking GAMINGTreasure HuntGeo-Tag EMERGENCY ALERTSTrafficWeather TRAVEL GUIDES3rd Party Guides

  24. A user’s location is compared to Geofences. An event is triggered (e.g., send SMS) when the opted-in user enters or leaves a specific Geofence. A Geofence Application Example Sally, this is the best pizza in NYC Opt-in 30% off all Shirts at The Shop Sally this is the best pizza in NYC - Mike 30% off all Shirts at The Shop Code XR456 Sign me up Accept x Sally’s profile and location match a GMS Sally’s profile and Location match a GMS Sally gets a GMS Sally gets a GMS Peers or third party content providers leave GMS message for Sally around a location WEB Sally moves around the world Sally opts-in • SMS • or • WAP

  25. A “Crazy Idea” For the Next Generation . . . Navigation Parking Cameras Google Maps Location Info Heads Up Display ONTO Intelligent Windscreen