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Implementing the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty

Implementing the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty What would Entry Into Force entail for States Parties Hein Haak Version with less pictures Introduction Overview CTBT States Signatories role in PrepCom stage States Parties role after EIF CTBT the Holy Grail of Arms Control

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Implementing the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty

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  1. Implementing the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty What would Entry Into Force entail for States Parties Hein Haak Version with less pictures

  2. Introduction • Overview CTBT • States Signatories role in PrepCom stage • States Parties role after EIF

  3. CTBT the Holy Grail of Arms Control • …. not to carry out any nuclear weapon test explosion or any other nuclear explosion …. (Article I. Basic obligations) • CTBT the longest-sought, hardest-fought prize in arms control … (Clinton, 1996) • 1996-2006: 10 years CTBT in the PrepCom stage

  4. CTBT: art. II The Organization • International Verification of Compliance • Treaty with extensive verification facilities based on objective information • Forum for consultation and cooperation among States Parties • Organization: • Conference of States Parties • Executive Council • Technical Secretariat to assist States Parties in the implementation of the Treaty

  5. CTBT: on the national levelArticle III National Implementation Measures • … each State Party shall designate or set up a National Authority … • The National Authority shall serve as the national focal point for liaison with the Organization and with other States Parties. • (Most states have a National Data Center)

  6. CTBT: basic facts PrepCom phase (October 2006) • 176 signatures • 135 ratifications • 34 article XIV ratifications out of 44 for EIF (from the 10 remaining states 3 have not signed) • Provisional Technical Secretariat with ~270 staff members from 69 States Signatories • Policy making organs: Working Groups A & B and Advisory Group

  7. The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty • The Preparatory Commission for the CTBTO was set up “for the purpose of carrying out the necessary preparations for the implementation” of the CTBT • The Provisional Technical Secretariat is establishing the verification system foreseen under the Treaty, prior to its entry into force. • International Monitoring System • International Data Centre • On-Site Inspection provisions • Underwater Tests • Atmospheric Tests • Underground Tests

  8. The Global Verification Regime Structure • International Monitoring System (IMS): • 321 Stations: seismic, infrasound, hydroacoustic, radio nuclide • 16 Radionuclide Laboratories • International Data Centre (IDC) • Global Communication Infrastructure (GCI) • Consultation and Clarifications • On-Site Inspections (OSI) • Confidence-Building Measures

  9. Infrasound Station Radionuclide Station Radionuclide Lab Hydroacoustic (hydrophone) Station Hydroacoustic (T-phase) Station Seismic Primary Array Seismic Primary 3-comp Station Seismic Auxiliary Array Seismic Auxiliary 3-comp Station International Monitoring System 321 Stations, 16 Radionuclide Laboratories

  10. Status of the IMS Network(to date, by technology, no labs included)

  11. Infrasound Station Radionuclide Station Radionuclide Lab Hydroacoustic (hydrophone) Station Hydroacoustic (T-phase) Station Seismic Primary Array Seismic Primary 3-comp Station Seismic Auxiliary Array Seismic Auxiliary 3-comp Station IMS Stations in IDC Operations 31 July 2006 (189 Stations)

  12. AfricaMiddle East and South Asia Algeria Madagascar South Africa Bangladesh Kuwait Burkina Faso Malawi Tunisia Iran (Islamic Republic of) KyrgyzstanEgypt Mali Uganda Israel OmanEthiopia Morocco Zambia Jordan Tajikistan Kenya Namibia Zimbabwe Kazakhstan Uzbekistan Libya Nigeria Secure Signatory Accounts as of 31 January 2006 Eastern Europe North America and Western Europe Albania Hungary Austria France SpainArmenia Lithuania Belgium Germany Sweden Azerbaijan Poland Canada Greece Switzerland Belarus Romania Cyprus Iceland Turkey Bulgaria Russian Federation Denmark Italy UK Czech Republic Slovakia Finland Netherlands USA EstoniaSlovenia Norway Georgia Ukraine Latin America and the Caribbean South-East Asia, the Pacific and the Far East Argentina Honduras Australia New Zealand Thailand Belize Jamaica China Papua New Guinea Viet Nam Bolivia Mexico Indonesia Philippines Brazil Panama Japan Republic of Korea Chile Paraguay Malaysia Solomon Islands Costa Rica Peru Ecuador Uruguay El Salvador Venezuela Guatemala TOTAL: 91 States with 738 Users (Principal Users - 461, Regular Users - 201 and Station Operators - 76)

  13. Cooperation with Hosting Countries 1. IMS Station Installation • site survey contracts • site preparation contracts • installation contracts and training • station operation contracts 2. Training • IMS Technical Training Programme • Specialized training operators 3. Spin-off Scientific Benefits • modern monitoring stations • natural hazard mitigation

  14. Data Processing: Indian Nuclear Test: 11 May 1998 Origin Time: 1998/05/11 10:13:44.2 Coordinates: 27.09o N 71.69o E +- 13-14 km mb = 5.0 MS = 3.2

  15. Seismic Waveforms and Regional MapPakistani Nuclear Test: 28 May 1998 Origin Time: 1998/05/28 10:16:17.6 Coordinates: 28.91o N 64.84o E +- 13-15 km mb = 4.9 MS = 3.5

  16. Seismic Waveforms and Regional Map:Kursk Nuclear Submarine Accident 12 Aug 2000, 7:30:42 GMT, 69.59N 37.41E 12-15 km

  17. Volcanic Activity, Etna Italy

  18. Transporting Data and Products to and from IDC: Global Communications Infrastructure Eutelsat W3 at 7° E Europe Region Superbird-B2 at 162° E Japan Galaxy XI at 269° E US Mainland Region Intelsat 801 at 328.5° E Atlantic Ocean Region Intelsat 804 at 176° E Pacific Ocean Region Intelsat 901 at 64° E Indian Ocean Region Satellite Coverage Hubs in: • Griesheim, Germany • Fucino, Italy (2) • Maryland, USA • Sydney, Australia • Tokyo, Japan

  19. IDC Reviewed Event Bulletin21 February 2000 - 31 October 2005: 135,035 Events

  20. Infrasound: Civil and Scientific Applications Tangurahua Volcano Guagua Pichincha Volcano Detection of volcanic explosions would assist in aviation safety. Specific ways for the cooperation between the PTS and the International Civil Aviation Organization were discussed by scientific experts in Berlin.

  21. Seismology: Civil and Scientific Applications Data on potentially damaging earthquakes and tsunami-related events worldwide to assist disaster management and response efforts are available from the IDC. Australia, Japan, Malaysia, United States receive real-time data for tsunami warning-related efforts.

  22. Civil and Scientific Applications of CTBT Verification Technologies Potential civil and scientific applications were identified and examined during three scientific experts discussions held in 2002 (London, UK), 2003 (Sopron, Hungary), 2004 (Berlin, Germany) and 2006 (Budapest, Hungary): • Seismic -Research on earthquake/volcanic eruption prediction • -Studies on earth’s structure • Hydroacoustic- Location of underwater volcanic events • - Monitoring of sea temperature and signs of global warming • Infrasound - Detection of volcanic eruptions (aviation) • - Oceanic swell research • - Atmospheric and meteorological studies • - Detection of meteor impacts in the atmosphere • Radionuclide- Radiation monitoring on possible radioactive releases • - Studies on natural radioactivity • - Atmospheric monitoring and biological research

  23. International Cooperation (1) • States-sponsored national seminars for CTBT States in Africa (The Kingdom of the Netherlands) • Zambia on 21 February 2006 • Malawi on 23 February 2006 • Mozambique (TBD) • Workshops and Expert Meetings: • Workshop for states from South-East Asia: • Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia in 31 May - 2 June 2006 • Interregional Workshop for States in Gulf Coast and Asia • 4th quarter 2006 (TBD)

  24. International Cooperation (2) • Workshops and Expert Meetings (cont’d) • Expert Meeting for States From West Africa • planned for 2nd quarter 2006, but postponed-TBD • States-sponsored workshops • Regional workshops for States in the Greater Caribbean (Canada and Mexico) • Mexico City, 11-12 October 2006 • Expert meeting on Civil and Scientific Applications of CTBT Verification Technologies (Hungary) • Budapest, Hungary, 2-3 September 2006

  25. International Cooperation (3) States-sponsored NDC-related training courses • Finland: Hands-on training course for NDC staff to 4th quarter 2006 • Japan: Global seismological observation training course 4th quarter 2006

  26. Services to States Signatories:NDC Software Models Option 1 Browser Option 2 NDC-in-a-Box Option 3 Mini IDC • Option 2+ • IDC-like data acquisition and forwarding • IDC-like processing and analysis • IDC-like data management system • Cost/NDC: US$ 500-10,000K • Staff/NDC: 10-1000 • Display data and products • Download data and products • No analysis • Option 1+ • Limited detection and location • Could add national data

  27. International Data Centre (1) Measures supporting NDC capacity building • Provision of IMS data and IDC products • Specific presentation will be made • Technical assistance • services@ctbto.org • Over 400questions received and dealt with in 2006 • Increased autoDRM request and e-mail message limits • Provision of software and related documentation • INF.785 described software available to Member States • NDC in a box latest version (V2.0)

  28. International Data Centre (2)Measures supporting NDC capacity building • Training courses • Introductory course, 8 – 12 May, 20 participants from 19 countries • Customized regional trainingcourses • Egypt, 5 - 9 June, 11 participants from 9 countries • Mexico, 31 July – 4 August, 12 participants from 7 countries • Croatia, 25 – 29 September • Advanced technical course, 4 -8 December • Deadline for registration: 20 October 2006

  29. International Data Centre (3)Measures supporting NDC capacity building • Visitors’ programme • Two visitors from China spent 6 weeks at the IDC in March-April 2006 (About 160 PTS staff hours were dedicated to support them) • Development of E-learning capabilities • Dedicated presentation • Workshop for NDCs and Station Operators • Venue: 20-24 November, Vienna, Austria • Agenda (dedicated presentation)

  30. CTBT: combined efforts • Cooperation among states and the PTS for installation of stations, calibration and operation and maintenance • Cooperation to implement the best analysis techniques at the IDC • Cooperation to assist states in their own verification activities • Cooperation to ensure that the best scientific methods are used throughout the whole of the verification system

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