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Investigating Systematic Errors in Neutrino Oscillation Measurements for T2K

This study aims to clarify significant systematic errors in neutrino oscillation measurements, focusing on the T2K experiment. Collaborators from KEK, Kyoto University, and Tokyo University address critical uncertainties impacting oscillation analysis, including flux normalization, non-QE ratio, and energy scale. We explore potential indirect error reductions through far-near observation methods and propose innovative techniques for robust measurement against systematic uncertainties. Furthermore, the study emphasizes the importance of assessing hadron production uncertainties and optimizing methodology for accurate neutrino interaction analysis.

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Investigating Systematic Errors in Neutrino Oscillation Measurements for T2K

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  1. A study to clarify important systematic errors A.K.Ichikawa, Kyoto univ. We have just started not to be in a time blind with construction works. Activity members come from KEK, Kyoto univ and Tokyo univ.

  2. Hiraide study in 2004http://www-he.scphys.kyoto-u.ac.jp/member/hiraide/t2k/index.html Systematic shifts on (sin22q23,Dm232) are evaluated with following systematic errors. • Flux normalization uncertainty (10%) • Non-QE ratio uncertainty (20%) • Energy scale uncertainty (4%) • Spectrum shape uncertainty (FLUKA/MARS) • Spectrum width uncertainty (10%)

  3. K.Hiraide OA2.5deg Systematic shift d(sin2 2q) d(Dm2) MINOS 90% nqe shape esk width width norm stat. esk stat. norm shape nqe Various systematic shifts are shown as a function of true Dm2. Dashed lines indicate the size of statistical error.

  4. This was a very instructive study. Direct reduction of above systematic errors is very important. • Indirect reduction of systematic errors by cancellation btw. near and far observation is not evaluated. • Near to Far Extrapolation method should be studied. A new method may be useful if that is found to be robust against systematic uncertainty. • Default : Far/Near ratio • Matrix in (Enfar, Ennear) plane. • Using parent’s(=p,K) (p,q) distribution • Some of the systematic errors is not evaluated. (e.g. beam related ones.)

  5. Cancellation of syst error on N11exp N11exp(f) NSKMC(f) ∝NKTMC(f) From K2K

  6. From K2K Contribution of syst. errors on spectrum Spec. nQE/QE Spec.+nQE/QE Total SK Escale eSK F/N

  7. K2K-II ne appearance searchError on backgrounds from nm * Super-K intrinsic

  8. Short term goal of this study • Find the best near to far extrapolation method • The best one would varies depending on statistics and information from NA61 and ND measurements. • Can ND mesurements constrain hadron production uncertainty when there is uncertainty on netrino interaction? • Make oscillation analysis tool for T2K based on the K2K method. • See next slide. • Clarify the importance of following systematic errors as a function of statistics • Hadron production • Compare GFLUKA, MARS and FLUKA2007 • Getting reasonable error matrix on flux by assuming reasonable uncertainty in (p,q) distribution • After NA61 results come, this will be replaced. • Beamline origin (misalignment etc.) • Neutrino interaction Energy dependent non-QE/CCQE ratio, NC/CC ratio • Super-K intrinsic energy scale and normalization (comes from FV, PID etc.) For ne appearance, statistical and Super-K intrinsic error would be dominant. Still update of p.7 table with T2K off-axis flux is important to confirm this.

  9. From K2K Likelihood Normalization term Shape term for FCFV 1Rm Systematic parameter constraint term

  10. T2K Near to Far extrapolation Matrix En(Super-K) Robustness against the hadron production uncertainty will be checked. En(Super-K) v.s. En(on-axis) will be made, too. Very Preliminary En(Off-axis ND280) K.Sakashita

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