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Systematic Errors

Systematic Errors. Thomas Jung European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Scope of the Lecture. Question: “Do we still have significant systematic errors in the ECMWF forecasting system?”. If so, what are the main problems? How do systematic errors grow?

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Systematic Errors

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  1. Systematic Errors Thomas Jung European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

  2. Scope of the Lecture Question: “Do we still have significant systematic errors in the ECMWF forecasting system?” • If so, what are the main problems? • How do systematic errors grow? • How did systematic errors evolve over the years? • How well do we simulate specific phenomena (e.g., blocking, extratropical cyclones)? • Does increasing resolution help? • Which techniques can be used to understand systematic error?

  3. Two kinds of forecast error • Random error (model+initial error) • Systematic error (model error*) Introduction Two principal sources of forecast error: • Uncertainties in the initial conditions (“observational error”) • Model error

  4. Concept of Systematic Error • Relatively straightforward to compute • BUT can be difficult to identify the origin of errors • Moreover there are pitfalls: • finite length (significance tests help partially) • apparent systematic error for short time series (loss of predictability) • observations might be biased

  5. Observed Anomaly “Systematic Error” when predictability is lost Fingerprint of loss of predictability: “Systematic error” resembles the opposite of the observed anomaly Loss of Predictability and “Systematic Error” “Forecast” “Observed”

  6. Observed Anomaly Mean Error @ D+10 Example: Z500 DJF 2005/06 Spatial correlation=-0.78

  7. Uncertainty of our “Truth”

  8. Data • Medium-range forecasts • Primarily hindcasts from ERA-40 and ERA-Interim (robust statistics). • Seasonal integrations: • 13 month long integrations started on 1st November of each of the years 1962-2005 (or a subset of this period). • Diagnosis of standard seasons DJF, MAM, JJA, SON (errors had at least 1 month to grow, asymptotic errors). • Most experiments at TL159 with 91 levels in the vertical. • Observed lower boundary conditions (uncoupled integrations). • Observational data: • ERA-40 • Other “observational” data sets.

  9. Systematic Error Growth How do systematic errors grow throughout the forecast?

  10. Systematic Z500 Error Growth from D+1 to D+10

  11. Systematic Z500 Errors: Medium-Range and Beyond Asymptotic: 31R2 D+10 ERA-Interim

  12. Evolution of Systematic Error How did systematic errors evolve throughout the years?

  13. 1983-1987 1993-1997 2003-2007 Evolution of D+3 Systematic Z500 Errors

  14. Evolution of Systematic Z500 Errors: Model Climate 35R1 33R1 32R3 32R2 32R1 31R1 30R1 29R2

  15. Systematic Z500 Errors: Impact of Recent Changes Control Old Convection Old TOFD Old Vertical Diff Old Radiation Old Soil Hydrology

  16. Phenomena

  17. Blocking Methodology L H L

  18. ERA-40 D+1 D+4 D+7 D+10 Blocking Frequency Errors (23r4) DJF 1990-2001

  19. ERA-40 D+1 D+4 D+7 D+10 Blocking Frequency Errors (31R2) DJF 1990-2001

  20. ERA40 33R1 32R3 29R2-32R2 Blocking Frequencies: DJF 1990-2005

  21. New Blocking Diagnostic • Feature tracking software from Kevin Hodges • Track positive stream function anomalies at 1000 hPa • Some filtering: T3-T12 • Diagnostics: • Number, frequency, lifetime, …

  22. Frequency of Anti-cyclones (1962-2005 DJF) ERA40 31R1-ERA40 33R1-ERA40 33R1-31R1 Long-lived anticyclones only (> 2 days)

  23. Average Lifetime of Anticyclones (1962-2005 DJF) ERA40 31R1-ERA40 33R1-ERA40 33R1-31R1

  24. Extratropical Synoptic Systems • Two appoaches: • Compute standard deviation of highpass or bandpass filtered time series (“Eulerian” approach). • Track individual systems (“Lagrangian” approach).

  25. “Observed” Tracks of Long-lived Cyclones >2 days

  26. Sensitivity to Horizontal Resolution: 29R1

  27. Sensitivity to Horizontal Resolution: 31R1

  28. Number of Extratropical Cyclones (DJFM) Lifetime > 1day

  29. Computational Effort • 12% of all CPUs on HPCE cluster • Wall clock time about 20 hours • About 70 times more expensive than TL95! 1 Integration (151 days) @ TL511L91:

  30. Synoptic Activity Error: Evolution 35R1 32R2 33R1 31R1 32R3 30R1

  31. The Madden-and Julian Oscillation

  32. Schematic of the MJO From Madden and Julian (1994)

  33. Near Global Impact of the MJO (Precipitation) Conv.: Indian Ocean Conv.: Maritime Continent Conv.: Central Pacific Conv.: WH/Africa

  34. The Madden and Julian Oscillation ERA-40 ECMWF Model

  35. Conclusions (1) Main systematic errors: • Concept of systematic error is very straightforward. • But there are pitfalls: • Short time series (sampling issues + loss predictability). • Uncertainty about the true state of the atmosphere. • Systematic error are a clear sign of model error. • Understanding systematic error is challenging.

  36. Conclusions (2) Main systematic errors: Do we still have systematic errors in the ECWMF model? • Yes, we do. • Most systematic errors have been substantially reduced in recent years. • Some key-challenges remain, however!

  37. Conclusions (3) Main systematic errors: Key-challenges: • Tropical circulation + hydrological cycle • Madden-Julian Oscillation • Indian Summer Monsoon • Quasi-Biennial Oscillation • Euro-Atlantic blocking • Synoptic activity (severe wind storms) • Others (surface related fields)

  38. Further Reading Bechtold, P., M Koehler, T. Jung, M. Leutbecher, M. Rodwell and F. Vitart, 2008: Advances in simulating atmospheric variability with the ECMWF model: From synoptic to decadal time scales. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 134, 1337-1351. Jung, T. and A.M. Tompkins, 2003: Systematic Errors in the ECMWF Forecasting System. ECMWF Technicial Memorandum 422. http://www.ecmwf.int/publications/library/do/references/list/14 Jung, T., A.M. Tompkins, and R.J. Rodwell, 2004: Systematic Errors in the ECMWF Forecasting System. ECMWF Newsletter, 100, 14-24. Jung, A.M. Tompkins, and R.J. Rodwell, 2005: Some Aspects of Systematic Errors in the ECMWF Model. Atmos. Sci. Lett., 6, 133-139. Jung, T. and co-authors, 2009: The ECMWF model climate: Recent progress through improved physical parametrizations. ECMWF Seminar Proceedings on Parameterization of Subgrid-scale Processes, 233-249. Available from the ECMWF website. Jung, T., 2005: Systematic Errors of the Atmospheric Circulation in the ECMWF Model. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 131, 1045-1073. Jung, T., S.K. Gulev, I. Rudeva and V. Soloviov, 2006: Sensitivity of extratropical cyclone characteristics to horizontal resolution in the ECWMF model. Quart J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 132, 1839-1857. Hoskins, B.J. and K.I. Hodges, 2002: New Perspectives on the Northern Winter Storm Tracks. J. Atmos. Sci., 59, 1041-1061. Koehler, M., 2005: ECMWF Technicial Memorandum 422. http://www.ecmwf.int/publications/library/do/references/list/14 Palmer, T.N., G. Shutts, R. Hagedorn, F. Doblas-Reyes, T. Jung, and M. Leutbecher, 2005: Representing Model Uncertainty in Weather and Climate Prediction. Ann. Rev. Earth. Planet Sci., 33, 163-193. Rodwell, MJ and T Jung, 2008: Understanding the local and global impacts of model physics changes: An aerosol example. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 134, 1479-1497.

  39. Recent Model Changes

  40. Sensitivity to Model Formulation

  41. Systematic Errors: AMIP Models

  42. Demeter Models (DJF Precipitation) LODYC CERFACS ECMWF Meteo-France MetOffice MPI

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