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ON THE CLIMATE PREDICTION AND MONITORING OVER THE BRAZILIAN AMAZON

ON THE CLIMATE PREDICTION AND MONITORING OVER THE BRAZILIAN AMAZON. Everaldo B. de Souza everaldo@ufpa.br Faculdade de Meteorologia Universidade Federal do Pará - UFPA Belém-PA. Precipitation over South America. Obregon 2003. Precipitation over South America. Obregon 2003.

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ON THE CLIMATE PREDICTION AND MONITORING OVER THE BRAZILIAN AMAZON

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  1. ON THE CLIMATE PREDICTION AND MONITORING OVER THE BRAZILIAN AMAZON Everaldo B. de Souza everaldo@ufpa.br Faculdade de Meteorologia Universidade Federal do Pará - UFPA Belém-PA

  2. Precipitation over South America Obregon 2003

  3. Precipitation over South America Obregon 2003

  4. General circulation of the Atmosphere

  5. The annual cycle

  6. The Amazonian precipitation variability is related to the ocean-atmospheric modes observed over the tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans

  7. Pacific and Atlantic monitoring indices

  8. The unfavorable scenario Souza, Kayano, Ambrizzi 2005

  9. The favorable scenario Souza, Kayano, Ambrizzi 2005

  10. The intraseasonal variability The beginning... R.A. Madden and P.R. Julian. 1971: Detection of a 40–50 Day Oscillation in the Zonal Wind in the Tropical Pacific. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences: Vol. 28, No. 5, pp. 702–708. R.A. Madden and P.R. Julian. 1972: Description of Global-Scale Circulation Cells in the Tropics with a 40–50 Day Period. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences: Vol. 29, No. 6, pp. 1109–1123.

  11. Intraseasonal variability ( ~ 15-90 dias) INTRASEASONAL Mode ~ 30 – 70 days planetary wave (MJO) SUB-MONTHLY Mode ~ 15 – 30 days 4-6 zonal wavenumber

  12. Evidences of the intraseasonal variability Primavera Primavera Verão Verão Outono Outono Vitorino et al., 2006

  13. Evidences of the intraseasonal variability Souza and Ambrizzi 2006

  14. Planetary mechanism: The Madden-Julian oscillation Carvalho et al., 2004

  15. Planetary mechanism: The Madden-Julian oscillation Souza and Ambrizzi 2006

  16. Wavetrains from MJO Cunningham and Cavalcanti, 2006

  17. Regional mechanisms within the MJO envelope: SACZ and ITCZ CHI200; V200 OLR; qV SST;V1000 Dia –18 Dia –15 Dia –12 Dia –9 Dia -6

  18. Regional mechanisms within the MJO envelope: SACZ and ITCZ CHI200; V200 OLR; qV SST;V1000 Dia –3 Dia 0 Dia +3 Dia +6 Dia +9

  19. Lets back in the time… we are in January 2007. we need to produce the seasonal forecast for the Amazônia for the next the 3 months (Feb – Mar – Apr 2007)

  20. Results of the climate models for FEB – MAR – APR 2007 CPTEC: Kuo DERF RAS GRELL NCEP ECMWF IRI CPTEC ETA

  21. The seasonal forecast: The precipitation observed in Feb – Mar – Apr 2007

  22. REDE ESTADUAL DE PREVISÃO CLIMÁTICA E HIDROMETEOROLÓGICA DO PARÁ RPCH EXECUTOR: UFPA - Everaldo Souza (Coordenador) CO-EXECUTORES: SECTAM (NHM) INMET (2º DISME) SIPAM (CTO-BELÉM) CONVÊNIO 3641/06

  23. Objetivo da RPCH: Implementar e sistematizar um Rede integrada de pesquisa e previsão climática no Estado do Pará, focalizando a escala de tempo sazonal e intrasazonal, com vistas ao aprimoramento do conhecimento científico sobre a climatologia dinâmica tropical e, consequentemente, tanto melhorar como aumentar a capacidade de desenvolvimento das previsões das condições do clima regional sobre a Amazônia oriental.

  24. Metas físicas da RPCH: • Estudos observacionais; • Modelagem climática regional (RegCM3 for Amazon); • Análise e modelagem hidrometeorológica; • Implementação e consolidação das Discussões Mensais de Análise e Previsão Climática; • Estabelecer mecanismos de disseminação e aplicação da informação e previsão climática.

  25. Equipe da RPCH: Estudantes e Bolsistas Pós-Graduação: Douglas Marcio João Paulo Andressa Saulo Antonio Denise Graduação: Ronaldo Luis Felipe Chymeny Carlos Sheila Hildo Alex Everaldo Aurora Galdino José Ricardo Midori Hernani João Batista Paulo Souza Carvalho Cattanio Danilo Isa Julia Renato Bergsson Rosilene Tiago Edson Jorge Rodrigo Cesar Marcio Rolim J.Raimundo Alcy Rai Sandim Paulo Tiago Reginaldo Outras instituições: Defesa Cilvil, ADA, UFRA Pedro Martorano Pacheco Major Norat Paula Parcerias: IEPA, INPE e IAG-USP Alan Assunção Gandú Pablo Luciano Tércio Rose Pessoal diretamete envolvido: 12 Doutores, 8 Mestres, ~25 Graduados, 2 Mestrandos, 2 Bolsas Iniciação Científica

  26. Climate change in the eastern Amazon…

  27. Belém city ~ 1960 Belém city ~ 2000

  28. MÉDIA ANUAL DA TEMPERATURA DO AR (ºC) BELÉM/PA (1923 – fev/2007) Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia Cortesia: J. Raimundo

  29. VARIAÇÃO SAZONAL DO CLIMOGRAMA BELÉM/PA (1930 – 2007) Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia Cortesia: J. Raimundo

  30. obrigado! everaldo@ufpa.br

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