Climate prediction

1. Climate prediction Ding Yihui, Liu Yanju, Liu Yiming, Shi Xueli National Climate Center, CMA

2. 1. 9-yr seasonal prediction for flooding period NCC-CGCM

3. Seasonal precipitation prediction (left) and observation (right) for 1998 summer (Anomaly percentage:%) 1998 summer, heavy floods occurred in whole Yangtze basins, predictions for range and intensity are quite successful

4. Seasonal precipitation prediction (left) and observation (right) for 1999 summer (Anomaly percentage:%) 1999年夏季（6～8月）降水量距平百分率预报图 1999年夏季（6～8月）降水量距平百分率图 1999年夏季，预报为中等旱涝年景，多雨范围比前一年小 ，少雨范围比前一年大，与实况一致。但预报主要雨带偏北 ，位于江淮、黄淮、华北中南部到东北东部一带；实况是主要雨带偏南，位于长江以南地区；出入较大。

5. Seasonal precipitation prediction (left) and observation (right) for 2000 summer (Anomaly percentage:%) 2000 summer, predictions are right for flood over Huanghe and Huaihe valleys and drought over some regions in North of China, The prediction evaluation highly reached 76%, with 11% increase compared to which in “9th 5-yr plan” and being the third since 1978.

6. Seasonal precipitation prediction (left) and observation (right) for 2001 summer (Anomaly percentage:%) 2001 summer, the prediction is consistent to observation, there are flood over East of Huanghe and Huaihe valleys, lower of Yangtze basin, most regions in South of China, east of Southwest China, northwest of Sinkiang, with drought over most regions in North China and Yangtze basins. But raininess belts in prediction is weaker than observation in South of China and stronger in north of China.

7. Seasonal precipitation prediction (left) and observation (right) for 2002 summer (Anomaly percentage:%) 2002年夏季（6～8月）降水量距平百分率预报图 2002年夏季（6～8月）降水量距平百分率图 预报 2002年夏季，我国多雨的范围比前一年增大，江淮、长江中下游、江南东部、华南大部、云贵高原南部等地降水偏多，部分地区洪涝灾害比前一年加重。北方大部地区以少雨为主，华北、西北东部和东北的部分地区要多年连续干旱。上述预报意见基本正确。但部分地区预报与实况有出入。

8. Seasonal precipitation prediction (left) and observation (right) for 2003 summer (Anomaly percentage:%) 预报总体上正确：北方降水比前四年增多，可能出现南北两支多雨带。江淮地区少雨，有夏旱（高温少雨）。长江流域不会出现严重洪涝。登陆台风个数偏少。但淮河流域突发性暴雨未报出。

9. 2004 Prediction OBS

10. 2005 Prediction OBS

11. 2006 Prediction OBS

12. 2. Regional climate model to predict flooding seasons

13. Physical Process Parameterization Schemes of RegCM_NCC Land-surface1. BATS2. LPM Cumulus1. Kuo－Anthes3. MFS Convective 2. Grell4. Betts－Miller Rad. Trans.1. CCM2 2. CCM3 1. Non-Holtslag3-6. TKE 2. Holtslag(various formula) PBL

14. Model Domain of operational hindcasts & predictions

15. Precipitation Anomaly over 160 station (upper) and North China (below) in summer 1991-2000 simulation

16. ACC distribution of summer precipitation Simulation Hindcast

17. Assessment of RegCM_NCC hindcast (1)

18. Precipitation Anomaly of summer 2002 (%) Prediction OBS Above normal: the mid-low reach of the Yangtze River valley, most part of the South china; Below normal: most regions to the north of the Yangtze River valley

19. Precipitation Anomaly of summer 2003 (%) Prediction in March Observation Prediction in May Above normal: regions between the Yellow river and Huaihe river valley; Below normal:Regions to the south of the Yangtze river valley, and Inner-Mongolia

20. Precipitation Anomaly of summer 2004 (%)

21. Precipitation Anomaly of summer 2006 (%) 新疆西北部、河套地区、华北大部、东北西部以及华南部分地区降水较常年同期偏少；西南地区大部、黄淮、江淮、江南部分地区降水较常年同期偏多，其余地区接近常年同期。

22. 3. Monsoon onset simulation by using high-resolution regional climate model

31. 4.Prediction of South China Sea summer monsoon onset with POAMA

32. POAMA • Newest operational model: 9 months • AGCM: BAM, T47,17 layers • OGCM: ACOM2（Version 2）,25 layers, 196*182 grids

33. 2003 OLR（110-120）NCEP Ensemble forecast 16 members( April15 _30, 2003) Forecast (right) Observation (left) U850 OLR

34. Ensemble forecast 16 members( April15 _30, 2003) Forecast (right) Observation (left) Precipitation

35. onset index:Wang.et.al(2004) Actual onset date （4th pentad of May） Actual onset date （4th pentad of May） accepted accepted （17/30=57%）

36. Taylor diagram March 2003 850 hPa Zonal wind (a) Taylor diagram summary of POAMA predictions for 2003. Diagrams on up (bottom) are for ensemble members with lead times of 61-31 (30-1) days. The number on each of the diagram signifies the starting date for the ensemble member and CLM the Climatological prediction April Cor=0.625 Rmse=4.6 (b) 850 hPa Zonal wind

37. Taylor diagram March 2003 OLR (c) April Cor=0.51 Rmse=36 (d) OLR

38. Taylor diagram March 2003 (e) precipitation April Cor=0.73 Rmse=7 precipitation (f)

39. Case2 2004 Observation

40. Taylor diagram 泰勒图的分析 March 850 hPa Zonal wind （a） 2004 April Cor=0.47 （b） 850 hPa Zonal wind

41. Taylor diagram 泰勒图的分析 March 2004 OLR (a) April Cor=0.35 (b) OLR

42. Actual onset date （4th pentad of May） Actual onset date （4th pentad of May） accepted accepted （18/30=60%）

43. Ensemble forecast 16 members( April15 _30, 2004) Forecast (right) Observation (left) U850 OLR

44. Thank you!