NIGERIA 2006 POPULATION AND HOUSING CENSUS,CONSTRAINTS AND RECOMMENDATIONS.PRESENTED BY MRS SAIDU D.S. AT 2007 AFRICA SYMPOSIUM ON STATISTICAL DEVELOPMENT KIGALI, RWANDA.15-18 JANUARY, 2007.
PRESENTATION OUTLINE • Introduction • Key census activities • Lessons learnt • Recommendations
INTRODUCTION • Nigeria is popularly referred to as the giant of Africa because of her population size, land mass and extensive natural resources. Nigeria’s current estimated population is 140.3 million. • In March 2006, Nigeria for the first time conducted a Population and Housing Census. The key activities involved were:
KEY CENSUS ACTIVITIES • Enumeration Area Demarcation and production of maps • Development and review of census questionnaires and forms • Pilot Surveys (Pre-test of the census questionnaires/procedures and Trial Census)
KEY CENSUS ACTIVITIES • Advocacy and public awareness campaign in support of the census • Census enumeration • Post Enumeration Survey • Data processing and Tabulation • Census results and Data dissemination
ENUMERATION AREA DEMARCATION (EAD) • Enumeration Area Demarcation (EAD) was a pre-census activity designed to produce maps that serve as guide to Enumerators on the areas of assignments to be covered during enumeration. • Nigeria’s 923,768 sq.km was divided into small Areas called Enumeration Areas (EAs). • 662,000 EAs were created for the 2006 census and assigned to 332,800 Enumeration teams (ETs).
DEVELOPMENT OF CENSUS QUESTIONNAIRES AND FORMS • Draft questionnaire was prepared in-house • It was subjected to a data users/producers workshop in Kaduna, September 2004. • The workshop recommendations led to modification of the questionnaire which was finally used.
PILOT SURVEYS Pre-Test It was conducted between 11th and 13th, April 2005 in 20 randomly selected EAs per state. The conduct of the exercise was to enable the Commission test the accuracy and reliability of EA maps and the census instruments like the census questionnaire, PES questionnaire, Household listing and house numbering form and so on
PILOT SURVEYS Cont’d Trial Census The trial Census was considered as a full dress rehearsal for the actual census. It was conducted between 29th August and 3rd September 2005, in some selected EAs of some LGAs in all the states and the FCT. Its objectives among others were: • To establish a full scale logistics support for the distribution of materials and transportation of human and material resources within and between local governments
PILOT SURVEYS Cont’d • To evaluate the effectiveness of the established method of training of non- NPC staff who will be involved in the census exercise • To test the enumeration procedures such as de facto enumeration and thumb dubbing with indelible ink
PILOT SURVEYS Cont’d • To establish a comprehensive programme of information and advocacy techniques about the census • To test all arrangements already made for the census field organization • To estimate enumeration time, i.e. how long would it take to enumerate an average household? how long will it take to enumerate a whole EA?
PILOT SURVEYS Cont’d • To evaluate the adequacy of data processing strategy established for handling the census data. That is, to know how accurate and speedy the new innovations of OMR/OCR/ICR forms were. • To evaluate the effectiveness of public holiday on the enumeration during the Census exercise.
PILOT SURVEYS Cont’d • To determine the comprehensiveness and usefulness of the list of historical events as an aid for estimating the age of respondents. • To evaluate the quality of EAD work on a large scale for the census field organization.
ADVOCACY AND PUBLIC AWARENESS CAMPAIGN The National Population Commission arranged an elaborate census publicity, public enlightenment and advocacy programmes aimed at enlisting the interest of the general public and its cooperation. • Intensive publicity was done through electronic and print media. • Posters, handbills, pamphlets and stickers in 4 prominent languages were produced and distributed widely. • The main themes in the publicity campaign were, the relevance of the census, coverage, accuracy and usefulness of census data.
TRAINING • Training was conducted at each level of the key activity.
CENSUS ENUMERATION • The Census enumeration was held on 21st to 27th of March, 2006. It covered 774 LGAs of the 36 states including the Federal Capital Territory (FCT ABUJA). • Responses were recorded on specially printed machine readable forms, using OMR/OCR/ICR format to enable data capture by scanning which provides the combined benefit of speed and accuracy in large volume data capture. • De facto method was used.
POST ENUMERATION SURVEYS (PES) The Post Enumeration Survey was conducted from 21st to 27th June, 2006 involving 17,000 ETs which represented 5% of the national frame. • It was conducted to ascertain the content and coverage errors so as to permit a better interpretation of the census result.
PES Cont’d • To solicit for additional questions which will be used to generate vital demographic indices not covered during the census. For example fertility (quest. 23,24,25) and mortality (quest. 26, D1-D3) of NPC 02. • To evaluate census migration (quest. 12,13 &14 of NPC02).
MATCHING OPERATION This was the first time ‘matching’ was introduced into the Nigerian Census process. The process was not without its problems in terms of implementation. • Matching was a follow-up activity to PES in an attempt to realize the objectives of the PES. It is a process of comparing/matching the information in the PES and the Census.
MATCHING OPERATION cont’d • There were two types of matching: aggregate matching which was done in all the PES EAs and individual matching done in some samples taken from the PES samples. This exercise was carried out in seven (7) Data Processing Centres (DPCs) throughout the nation. The staff involved were trained by a combined team of foreign experts and some NPC personnel.
DATA PROCESSING AND TABULATION The data processing was designed and implemented around a powerful high Tech up to date information Technology framework, that is, high speed Scanners built on state of the art OMR/OCR/ICR technology were used • The data collected was collated, edited, scanned and analyzed. It took nine months to release the provisional figures • The tabulation plan was adapted from UN recommendations covering basic lists of indicators that make up minimum planning requirements. They are: Demographic and social characteristics, fertility and mortality, household, economic and housing characteristics
NIGERIAN’S 2006 CENSUS FIGURES • The National Population Commission released the provisional figures of the national headcount on the 29th December, 2006 and puts the nation’s population at 140,003,542 out of which the males are 71,709,859 and females 68,293,683. The figure shows a sex ratio of 105 to 100, with annual growth rate of 3.2 percent. • The tabulation available now is; The total national population of Nigeria desegregated by sex and population of the 36 states and the FCT by sex. More detailed information on the population size, characteristics and composition will be contained in the final figures to be released at a later date.
CENSUS TRIBUNAL In line with general practice, National Population Commission Act 1989, provides for establishment of Census tribunals in designated centres • NPC proposed to set up machinery to establish efficient and transparent 2006 Census Tribunals, where complaints or objections to census results as they relate to specific LGAs or localities will be heard.
DATA DISSEMINATION • The census data will be disseminated in hardcopy and electronic form to all the end users and stakeholders through seminars, workshops and internet. • To assist with the dissemination process a census database will be established.
LESSONS LEARNT FROM EAD The following were some of the lessons derived: The EAD exercise was faced with series of challenges: • Boundary disputes threatened the demarcation exercise in many areas which were surmounted by persuasion and others were referred to the National Boundary Commission for intervention. Special codes were provided for disputed areas to ensure proper enumeration.
LESSONS LEARNT FROM THE PILOT SURVEYS • It was found out that some EAs were poorly drawn. Also, some EAs were not correctly described. • Many EAs were found undersized. This gave the idea behind adopting ETs/ETAs in determining workload. • A few EAs were found to be oversized. Such EAs were split to allow for easy coverage during enumeration within the stipulated time.
LESSONS LEARNT FROM THE PILOT SURVEYS Cont’d • Some questions were found too ambiguous and sensitive, for example, the question on income. • It was discovered that the time allotted to training was inadequate and that emphasis should be more on field practical.
LESSONS LEARNT FROM THE PILOT SURVEYS Cont’d • Training manuals were reviewed several times. This was informed by the fact that many functionaries were not able to quickly understand the contextual meaning of some concepts and definitions.
LESSONS LEARNT FROM THE PILOT SURVEYS Cont’d • Due to the delicate nature of OMR/OCR/ICR forms, it was found that they were not properly handled which subsequently led to the delay in the processing of the forms. The forms were mutilated or damaged because enumerators used cello tapes, pins and other adhesives to tie them. Due to this problem, the scanners could not process such forms
LESSONS LEARNT FROM THE PILOT SURVEYS Cont’d • Some of the would-be respondents saw the PES as a disturbance after census and therefore were reluctant to cooperate with PES enumerators during enumeration. • Difficult respondents may not have been enumerated during the main census and PES.
LESSONS LEARNT FROM THE MATCHING • Lack of previous experience and capacity to undertake desk matching exercise • International PES experts arrived only in July 2006, so the manuals for training and estimation procedures was delayed until early August • Use of multiple names in Nigeria • Due to confusion of reported names and relationship to the head of household between PES and Census, some people initially classified as missed were found during the reconciliation visits • Logistic problems of setting up of Matching Offices and the field reconciliation visits
LESSONS LEARNT FROM PUBLICITY AND ADVOCACY The sustained publicity programme for the 2006 Census process, made it possible for the Commission to overcome major attitudinal and behavioral problems identified as being responsible for inadequate cooperation and ownership of census process in the past by Nigerians. These include: • Inadequate commitment and ownership of census taking by communities making it look like a purely government affair.
LESSONS LEARNT FROM PUBLICITY AND ADVOCACY Cont’d • Lack of faith in the country’s ability to undertake a successful census and mistrust of Government officials and programmes including census. • Ignorance of the importance of reliable data for developmental planning. • Ignorance of census related activities and terminologies by the public.
LESSONS LEARNT FROM PUBLICITY AND ADVOCACY Cont’d • General lack of awareness and inadequate knowledge of census process. • Confusing census with other government programmes such as the national I.D card project. • Insufficient private sector participation.
LESSONS LEARNT FROM PUBLICITY AND ADVOCACY Cont’d • Inadequate perception of Census and its use for development purpose by political, religious and traditional rulers. • Unnecessary movement of people just before the census (census migration). • Lack of awareness on penalties for census offences.
RECOMMENDATIONS Following the above challenges and lessons learnt, it is hereby recommended that: • Adequate time be allotted to the planning of a census. Thus a minimum of 36 months planning period is recommended.
RECOMMENDATIONS • Funds should be released promptly to the organizing agency to facilitate the smooth conduct of the exercise. • The Due Process concept in the award of contract is desirable, but for a warlike operation like the census, the protocols slowed down activities. In future, waivers should be applied to hasten procurements.
RECOMMENDATIONS • The populace should be educated on the importance of population as an integral part of development and not for political purposes. • It is therefore recommended that population educational curriculum be embraced at all levels to inculcate positive attitude of the citizenry towards census from early age.
RECOMMENDATIONS • A qualitative workforce is important for the generation of accurate and reliable data .To this end, it is recommended that for every census, a national examination be conducted for all applicants for all levels of functionaries. • Payment for all census functionaries should be paid once, after successful completion of assignment and retrievals. • Effective and efficient publicity is necessary in the conduct of any census and therefore must be encouraged.