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February 5, 2009

Strategic Vision Plan City of Mandan Community Meeting. February 5, 2009. Community Meeting. Presented By J. Mac Holladay , CEO Alex Pearlstein , Senior Project Manager Ellen Anderson, Research Manager. Agenda. National realities About Market Street

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February 5, 2009

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  1. Strategic Vision Plan City of MandanCommunity Meeting February 5, 2009

  2. Community Meeting Presented By • J. Mac Holladay, CEO • Alex Pearlstein, Senior Project Manager • Ellen Anderson, Research Manager

  3. Agenda • National realities • About Market Street • Overview of the Strategic Vision planning process • Key findings from the Economic and Demographic Snapshot • Next steps

  4. National Realities

  5. U.S. Economy: Job losses in 2008 Total jobs lost: 2.5 million Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, seasonally adjusted

  6. U.S. Economy: Gains and losses by sectorDecember 2008 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Seasonally adjusted.

  7. Unemployment Rates: December 2008 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, seasonally adjusted

  8. Metro Economies Report, 2000-2008 -2.73+ -2.5 to 0 0 to 2.5 2.5+ Source: U.S. Conference of Mayors, Jan. 2009

  9. The World in 2009 “Anyone hoping for a period of calm after the turbulence of the past year will be disappointed. For the economy and for business, as well as for politics, 2009 promises to be a year of bracing adjustment to a changed world.” Daniel Franklin, Editor The World in 2009 The Economist

  10. Announced Job Cuts – January 2009 212,675 JOBS

  11. Losing Confidence The consumer confidence index from a survey of 5,000 U.S. households: Seasonally adjusted: 1985=100 January 37.7 Nov. 2006: 105.3 October 2008: 38.0 December 2008: 38.6 Source: The Conference Board

  12. Recent Headlines “Macy’s to Shed 7,000 Jobs” Rachel Dades Wall Street Journal February 3, 2009 “More States Considering Tax Breaks to Woo Jobs” Stephaine Simon Wall Street Journal February 2, 2009 “Unemployment Rises in Every State” Conor Dougherty Wall Street Journal January 28, 2009 “Conference Board: U.S. could lose another 2 million jobs in 2009” Adam Kress Atlanta Business Chronicle January 12, 2009 “Yearly Job Loss Worst Since 1945” Kelley Evans & Kris Maher Wall Street Journal January 10-11, 2009

  13. Metro Economies Report Projected 2009 Employment (Q4 08 – Q4 09) Source: U.S. Conference of Mayors, Jan. 2009

  14. “Business’ 10 Biggest Battles” • Labor Elections: Why Obama may Disappoint the Unions • Housing: The Mortgage Fight has Just Begun • Climate Change: A Rising Chorus for a Law that Limits Emissions • Health Reform: Stumbling Blocks still Remain • Corporate Taxes: The Country Struggle over Who Pays What • Broadband: Faster or More Inclusive? • Education: NO Option Left Behind • Immigration: One Reform at a Time • Executive Pay: Bailout Money Could Have More Strings Attached • Trade: Hawks will Square off Against Retailers Source: John Carey & Theo Francis Business Week January 26, 2009

  15. How Far Down?Recession Realities • Mortgage and financial crisis • Huge decline in discretionary (especially retail) spending • The continuing decline in housing value, sales, and new construction • Plummeting consumer confidence • Job losses every month of 2008 • Rising food costs • Federal and state deficits • Automakers at risk and requesting bailout • The continuing cost in Iraq and Afghanistan (human and fiscal) • Enormous stock losses and continuing fluctuation • Recent reductions of oil prices but no stability Source: J. Mac Holladay, January 2009

  16. Employment Prospects • Long-Term Prospects • Teachers – Post-Secondary, Elementary, and Assistants • Computer Software Engineers • Data Communications Analysts • Systems Analysts • Accountants and Auditors • Truck Drivers • Security Guards • Carpenters • Landscapers • Management Analysts Top Jobs • Nurses • Home Care and Nursing Aides • Orderlies • Pharmacy Techs • Physical Therapists • Physician and Dental Assistants • Mental Health Counselors Small Base – Fast Growing Jobs • Veterinarians and Vet Technicians • Makeup Artists • Skin Care Specialists • Gaming Investigators Source: The Kiplinger Letter Washington January 30, 2009

  17. “Elvis Has Left the Mountain” “First, if it is not apparent to you yet, it will be soon: there is no magic bullet for this economic crisis, no magic bailout package, no magic stimulus…We are going to have to learn to live with a lot more uncertainty for a lot longer than our generation has ever experienced.” Thomas L. Friedman New York Times February 1, 2009

  18. Market Street Services

  19. Background on Market Street • Market Street brings original insights and clarity to the evaluation and revitalization of the places where people live, work and grow. • Through honest and informed assessments, we can equip you with the tools to create meaningful change. • Our solutions successfully merge our experience and expertise with the economic and social realities of our clients. • Market Street’s community clients are successful at creating stronger programs, increasing operational budgets, and creating new quality jobs that improve the quality of life in their communities.

  20. Market Street’s Client Communities • Current projects: • Palm Beach County, Florida • Tulsa, Oklahoma • Fort Benning (GA) Regional Growth Management Plan • Little Rock, Arkansas • San Marcos, Texas • Decatur, Alabama • Implementation contracts: • State of West Virginia • Gwinnett County, Georgia • Recent projects: • Austin, Texas • Jefferson City, Missouri • Nashville, Tennessee • State of Wyoming

  21. Mandan’s Strategic Visioning Process

  22. Scope of Work Completed March In Progress April/May May

  23. Economic and Demographic Snapshot • Analyze demographic and economic trends and assess their impact on community capacity • Provide information on: • Growth patterns – population and employment • Community make-up - age and race • Community well-being – poverty, per capita income • Economic structure – business sectors • Labor force capacity – participation rates, unemployment rates • Compare Mandan-Morton County to the Bismarck metro area, state of North Dakota, and the U.S.

  24. Community Assessment • Competitiveness is far more holistic than just traditional infrastructure and business costs • Key factors: • Education and workforce development • Infrastructure and land use • Business costs • Quality of life

  25. Stakeholder Input Process • Qualitative information gathering • Build consensus • Project website: mandanvisionplan.com

  26. Strategic Vision Plan • Culmination of all prior research components • Recommendation of goals, objectives, and action steps to re-align Mandan for the future • Describes best practices and provides benchmarks and performance measures • Strategy areas could include: • Preferred land-uses by district • Marketing efforts • Development preferences by type • Education and training programs • Entrepreneurship and small business programs • Leveraging regional assets

  27. Implementation Guidelines • Critical to the success of the Vision Plan • Key components: • Program assessments and recommended enhancements • Funding allocation recommendations • Timetable – 1-year and 5-year • Priority actions identified to provide “early victories”

  28. Economic and Demographic Snapshot

  29. Demographic Trends:Population change Great Plains Hit Hard by Out-Migration (2000-2007) Source: U.S. Census Bureau and the USDA Economic Research Service

  30. Demographic Trends:Population change Total Population Growth, 2000-2007 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

  31. Demographic Trends:Age distribution Population Change by Age Group, 2000-2007 Note: Like most Great Plains communities, Mandan-Morton County has a slightly older age distribution compared to the U.S. Source: U.S. Census Bureau

  32. Demographic Trends:Race and ethnic composition Population Change by Race and Ethnicity, 2000-2007 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

  33. Demographic Trends:Educational attainment Mandan-Morton County Educational Attainment (for adults ages 25+) Source: U.S. Census Bureau

  34. Demographic Trends:Poverty rates Total Population Rates Child Poverty Rates

  35. Demographic Trends:Per capita income Real Per Capita Income, 2000 and 2006 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

  36. Economic Trends:Employment and wages Total Employment and Wages, Q2 2006 and Q2 2008 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

  37. Economic Trends:Unemployment rates Monthly Unemployment Rates, 11/2007 – 11/2008 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

  38. Economic Trends: Economic Structure, Mandan-Morton County Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

  39. Economic Trends:Average Annual Wages

  40. Economic Trends:Entrepreneurship Non-Employer Average Annual Earnings, 2002 and 2006 • Smaller proportion of local entrepreneurs in “white collar” services • professional and technical services • real estate • finance and insurance • and information • High proportions of local entrepreneurs in • other services • retail trade • health care • construction Source: U.S. Census Bureau

  41. Key Findings: Demographics • Slow, steady population growth in Mandan and Morton County • Older age distribution than the region, state, and nation • Growing more diverse, but is still fairly homogenous • Educational attainment of local adults trails behind, but is improving • Lower percentage of local adults with a bachelor’s, graduate, or professional degree; however, there has been growth in these segments since 2000 and a decline in the percentage of residents without a high school diploma • Per capita incomes lag behind, but have experienced strong growth • Real PCI grew 15.7 percent in Morton County, more than the region and state and triple the national rate • Childhood poverty rates are an area of concern

  42. Key Trends: Economics • Mandan-Morton County’s economy is growing and well diversified; however, growth trails the metro area and state, and local unemployment is higher • Still, the local economy is performing better than the nation • Local job growth in key sectors including health care, construction, manufacturing, education, and professional and technical services. • Average wages in Mandan-Morton County are rising, both overall and in key sectors • Nearly 2,000 local residents claim themselves as “non-employers” – and their average income is rising

  43. Next Steps

  44. Next Steps in Process February – May • Market Street will continue to work with the Steering Committee May 27 (5:00 – 6:00) – Community Meeting • Public roll-out of the Mandan Vision Plan In the mean time….log on and take the online survey! • Mandanvisionplan.com

  45. Online Survey Mandanvisionplan.com

  46. “Coming together is a beginning; keeping together is progress; working together is success.” Henry Ford

  47. Questions?

  48. Thank you!

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