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Weekly Weather Briefing 09/29/2011 srh.noaa/shv/briefing

Weekly Weather Briefing 09/29/2011 www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefing. Keith Stellman Warning Coordination Meteorologist. National Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana. Overview. Today and Friday Near Record high temps ~100 Today Cold front pushes through the 4 state area Thur Night.

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Weekly Weather Briefing 09/29/2011 srh.noaa/shv/briefing

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  1. Weekly Weather Briefing09/29/2011www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefing Keith Stellman Warning Coordination Meteorologist National Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana

  2. Overview Today and Friday Near Record high temps ~100 Today Cold front pushes through the 4 state area Thur Night. Strong winds and Low RH values on Fri make for potential Red Flag Conditions. Weekend Much Cooler and remaining dry. Monday through Wednesday Slow warmup through the week…remains dry. National Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana

  3. Currently at the Surface Tonight/Friday Front Old Front More Humid Airmass

  4. Thursday Highs • Sept 29th is the latest recorded 100 degree day for SHV. • Oct 1,2 for East TX • Low RH values today as well

  5. Fire Danger Thursday • RH values will be low combined with dry fuels from lack of rain the past week. • Winds running less than 10 mph during the day

  6. Friday • Front moves through • Cooler …but much drier with strong winds H L

  7. Friday Max Winds • Winds strongest through 1 – 2 pm… decreasing through the afternoon • Strongest across East TX • Wind Direction = N -> NE 10-15 mph 15-20 mph 20-25 mph

  8. Friday Minimum RH % • RH values decreasing through the day as drier air filters in. • Lowest RH values 2 - 6 PM 20% - 25 % < 15% 15% - 20 %

  9. Sunday • Upper level low over great lakes will shift east • Upper ridge and surface ridge build in. • Nice weekend • Highs – low 80’s • Lows – 50’s L H

  10. Tuesday • Pattern Change?!!! • Ridge shifts east • Trof develops over the west • Nice Weather • Highs – Mid 80’s • Lows – upper 50’s/low 60’s L H

  11. Next Thursday • Pattern Change!! • Large trof develops across the west • Gulf opens up and humidity returns • Chance of rain…? By Fri/Sat L H

  12. Tropics Neither are expected to impact the US over the next 7 days

  13. Ongoing Drought Virtually no change… NCDC “An analysis of Texas statewide tree-ring records dating back to 1550 indicates that the summer of 2011 is matched only by the summer of 1789.” FIRE DANGER PERSISTS!

  14. NEXT CONFERENCE CALL: Thursday Oct 6, 2011 10 AM www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefing National Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana

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