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Weekly Weather Briefing 08/25/2011 srh.noaa/shv/briefing

Weekly Weather Briefing 08/25/2011 www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefing. Keith Stellman Warning Coordination Meteorologist. National Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana. Overview. Today and Friday Triple Digit Temps Continue Across the Area Heat Advisory continues for most of the area Today

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Weekly Weather Briefing 08/25/2011 srh.noaa/shv/briefing

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  1. Weekly Weather Briefing08/25/2011www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefing Keith Stellman Warning Coordination Meteorologist National Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana

  2. Overview Today and Friday Triple Digit Temps Continue Across the Area Heat Advisory continues for most of the area Today Weekend More Heat Slight Chance precipitation Monday through Wednesday High pressure ridge shifts…but still influencing Near Triple Digit Temps Continue Dry Conditions National Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana

  3. Currently H

  4. Radar Series Overnight 3 AM 448AM 548AM 754AM

  5. Rainfall EstimatesLast 24 hours ending 7 AM

  6. TemperaturesThursday Friday

  7. Weather Pattern (Fri – Sat) Friday AM Irene H Saturday PM H • Ridge remains west of the region • Irene moves up East Coast

  8. Weather Pattern Change (Mon – Wed) Monday PM Irene H Tues PM H • Ridge Begins to Shift East • Irene moves up East Coast • Sends front into Gulf

  9. Weather Pattern – Friday Sept 2 • Upper Ridge shifts east • Opening up tropics to western Gulf (If anything exists). • Models hinting at a wave in southern Gulf H

  10. Precip Totals for the Weekend • Very Little Rainfall • Diurnally Driven Showers and Tstms… primarily Thursday (Today)

  11. Tropics Nothing short term affecting western Gulf – through 5 days TD 10 Irene

  12. Record Heat Info

  13. Ongoing Drought Fire Danger Persist

  14. Ongoing Drought • Much of Northwest and North-central Louisiana remains under D3-D4 drought conditions. • Improvements in South LA

  15. Ongoing Drought • ALL of East Texas along/south of I-20 under D3-D4 drought conditions.

  16. Ongoing Drought • Much of SouthWest Arkansas under D3-D4 drought conditions.

  17. Ongoing Drought Fire Danger Persist

  18. Ongoing Drought Cedar Grove and Oil City Fires Courtesy KSLA

  19. Ongoing Drought Bowie County Fires Courtesy KSLA

  20. Are there more 100 degree days now?

  21. Are there more 100 degree days now?

  22. Current Precip Departures • Shreveport -25.38” over last 18 Months • Last 11 of 12 months have been below normal • Lufkin -18.40” over last 12 months • Tyler -28.44” over last 18 months

  23. What to Expect • La Nina Watch issued for this Winter • IfLa Nina returns, • Drier than normal winter • Above normal temps…mixed in with some extreme cold snaps Surface Ocean Bottom The latest weekly SST departures are: Niño 4 -0.2ºC Niño 3.4 -0.7ºC Niño 3 -0.5ºC Niño 1+2 -0.3ºC South America Asia

  24. LA Nina CompositesOct-Dec • 19 Case Studies • 70-80% of the time = Much below normal rainfall ( 3”-6” below normal)

  25. Current Average

  26. NEXT CONFERENCE CALL: Thursday Sept 1, 2011 10 AM www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefing National Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana

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