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Severe Weather Briefing 04/26/2011 srh.noaa/shv/briefing

Severe Weather Briefing 04/26/2011 www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefing. Keith Stellman Warning Coordination Meteorologist. National Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana. Overview. Tornado Outbreak Forecast – Today/tonight Another Very Dangerous Situation Developing – HIGH Risk out today

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Severe Weather Briefing 04/26/2011 srh.noaa/shv/briefing

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  1. Severe Weather Briefing04/26/2011www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefing Keith Stellman Warning Coordination Meteorologist National Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana

  2. Overview Tornado Outbreak Forecast – Today/tonight Another Very Dangerous Situation Developing – HIGH Risk out today Setup: Second in a series of storms moving through. Warm Front basically along the US 82 Corridor Very Unstable atmosphere across NE TX/SE OK…later across NW LA and S Arkansas Supercells capable of long track tornadoesdeveloping this afternoon across East Texas..near dryline Tornadoes, Large Hail, and damaging winds National Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana

  3. Currently Monday’s system Today’s System L 140 kt upper jet H National Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana

  4. 900 AM Surface/satellite Moisture is recovering to the west • 70+dewpoints National Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana

  5. Severe Weather Threat Area Tuesday SPC High Risk Area Greatest Threat region Moderate Risk SPC Slight Risk area More isolated in coverage • Impacts • Long Track Tornadoes (Strong to Violent) • Damaging Winds (Strong Bows) • Large Hail

  6. Tornado Threat Tuesday 15% 30% Significant/Violent Tornado Risk Area Any location within The pink outline Has higher risk for strong tornadoes

  7. Hail Threat Tuesday Very Large Hail Possible > 2”

  8. Wind Threat Tuesday Very high risk Bow echos Wind threat will evolve/increase with time…become later in the evening/overnight

  9. 130 PM Timing • Hi Res WRF runs showing development in the early afternoon in East Texas. (1-3 PM) • We believe best chances will be later with surface low deepening 330 PM

  10. Total Rainfall ForecastTuesday-Wednesday 4” – 6” 2” – 4” 1” – 2” 0.5” – 1”

  11. Summary This afternoon through tonight: Forecast of a Tornado Outbreak Very Dangerous Situation Developing Very high risk for tornadoes…some could be strong/violent and long track Evolving into a significant damaging wind event overnight Tuesday Outlook SPC High Risk Area Greatest Threat region Moderate Risk SPC Slight Risk area More isolated in coverage From SPC Outlook “...DANGEROUS TORNADO AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM NE TX ENEWD TO THE MS RIVER... “

  12. NEXT CONFERENCE CALL: Thursday 10 AM – Weekly Webinar www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefing National Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana

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