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The Low Carbon Road Transport Challenge: Getting the Genie Back in the Bottle

This paper discusses the potential for significant carbon reductions in road transport through enforcing speed limits of 70 mph and reducing them to 60 mph. It highlights the guaranteed carbon savings, safety benefits, cost-effectiveness, and political feasibility of this policy. The urgency to act is emphasized by rising CO2 concentrations and average temperature change. Implementing this policy now can lock in the benefits of other policies and contribute to meeting climate change targets.

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The Low Carbon Road Transport Challenge: Getting the Genie Back in the Bottle

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  1. The ‘Low Carbon Road Transport Challenge’“Getting the genie back in the bottle”Jillian Anable, UKERC and The Centre for Transport Policy, The Robert Gordon UniversityPaige Mitchell,The Slower Speeds InitiativeRussell Layberry, UKERC and The Environmental Change Institute, The University of Oxford

  2. The perfect policy? • Guaranteed carbon reduction • Significant carbon reduction • Other significant benefits (e.g. safety) • Equitable • Can be implemented now • Cost effective • Maximises efficiency in the system • Locks in the benefits of other policies • Politically deliverable

  3. 6.8 MtC savings from the transport sector by 2010 Total emissions from this sector still way above 1990 levels The UK Climate Change Programme

  4. UK Climate Change Programme: Transport policies Abandoned Underperforming ? ? Net savings= 1MtC

  5. UK Climate Change Programme: Transport policies + ?

  6. Speed Reduction and Enforcement

  7. The perfect policy? • Guaranteed carbon reduction • Significant carbon reduction • Other significant benefits (e.g. safety) • Equitable • Can be implemented now • Cost effective • Maximises efficiency in the system • Locks in the benefits of other policies • Politically deliverable

  8. The Low Carbon Road Transport Challenge Entry Two: A model of carbon emissions savings by 2010 from: (i) enforcing the current top 70 mph speed limit on motorways and dual carriageways for all 4-wheeled vehicles AND (ii) reducing this to 60 mph

  9. Guaranteed carbon savings Diesel Euro II cars (1.4 – 2l) emit 14% less CO2 at 70mph than at 80mph

  10. The potential to save carbon 4-wheeled vehicles on 70 mph roads = 41% road transport CO2 & 8% of all CO2 Ca. 50% of cars exceed the speed limit on motorways

  11. Model assumptions • Motorways and dual carriageways - all 4- wheeled vehicles • Traffic growth figures based on NTM midpoint projections for interurban roads to 2010 • No knock-on savings in demand or car purchasing • Average emissions coefficients reflecting: (i) fleet technology mix for each year (ii) relevant speed distribution (2004 data) • All distance previously driven above 70mph or 60mph redistributed to highest remaining band

  12. Significant carbon savings 2.8 - 5.4% reduction in carbon emissions from the transport sector in 2010.

  13. UK Climate Change Programme: Transport policies + speed limit (1 Mtc) Equals 15-29% of the total savings expected from the transport sector by 2010

  14. Additional carbon savings • Reduction in traffic growth • Maximising capacity by improving traffic flow • Rationalising car design

  15. Reduction in traffic growth Additional CO2 reductions under a scenario of ‘moderate’ traffic restraint: 3% (70 mph) – 7% (60 mph)

  16. Improved traffic flow • Highway capacity is a function of speed • Traffic ‘smoothing’ (e.g. M25) • Fewer crashes and disruption • Effect on driving style - combine with ecodriving and in car guidance systems • Renders motorway widening schemes unnecessary?

  17. Rationalising car design • Capping speed limits = a system boundary • Safer roads - set the context for lighter, less powerful and more efficient vehicles • Speed enforcement - encourage voluntary uptake of speed limiters • Average top speed of best performing models is 102mph

  18. Other benefits • Early win / certainty – no technological innovation required

  19. Why the urgency?

  20. CO2 concentrations and average temperature change • ‘Safe’ concentration has already been exceeded • Concentration rising by 2ppmv per year Stabilisation targets and temperature rise:

  21. Other benefits • Early win / certainty – no technological innovation required • Safety benefits – 60mph limit would halve deaths on motorways • Cost effectiveness – immediate carbon savings are cheaper = net benefit to society • Equity – reduce the differential between the fast and the slow, the rich and the poor

  22. Public Acceptability • Least intrusive measure • Egalitarian • Straightforward • Direct benefits – fuel savings and operating costs • Time penalties (if any) no worse than other measures • Improved journey reliability • M25 trials – 68% of drivers happy

  23. The perfect policy? • Guaranteed carbon reduction • Significant carbon reduction • Other significant benefits (e.g. safety) • Equitable • Can be implemented now • Cost effective • Maximises efficiency in the system • Locks in the benefits of other policies • Politically deliverable

  24. A systems approach

  25. Conclusions • NO case for not enforcing 70mph • 60 mph would bring significant benefits (29% of • Too good to ignore • Need a comprehensive review of the options • What’s your excuse?

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