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The Hay Wired Scenario – How can the San Francisco bay region bounce back better?

Natural Hazards : Earthquake • Volcanic Eruption • Landslide • Flood • Geomagnetic Storm • Wildfire • Tsunami • Coastal Erosion. NATURAL HAZARDS MISSION AREA. The Hay Wired Scenario – How can the San Francisco bay region bounce back better?.

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The Hay Wired Scenario – How can the San Francisco bay region bounce back better?

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  1. Natural Hazards: Earthquake • Volcanic Eruption • Landslide • Flood • Geomagnetic Storm • Wildfire • Tsunami • Coastal Erosion NATURAL HAZARDS MISSION AREA The HayWired Scenario – How can the San Francisco bay region bounce back better? Ken Hudnut; USGS Science Advisor for Risk Reduction Dale Cox; USGS SAFRR Project Manager with Anne Wein, Keith Porter, Laurie Johnson & Jenn Strauss Earthquake Country Alliance, San Francisco Bay Area Regional Workshop (3/1/2018) Cisco, San Jose, CA 1 1

  2. The USGS SAFRR-led Scenarios ShakeOut: San Andreas fault (southern California) earthquake scenario (2008) ARkStorm:winter storm scenario impacting U.S. West Coast (2010) Tsunami Scenario: tsunami generated by an Alaskan earthquake and impacting the U.S. West Coast (2013) HayWired:Hayward fault (northern California) earthquake scenario (in progress; April 18, 2018 - release date) ARkStorm Retrospective: 2017 ARs, disaster declarations, beach loss, extreme storms, snow pack & melt runoff

  3. Risk is high where humans and hazards collide Disaster vs. Catastrophe Risk reduction can help save lives

  4. HayWired: Building a USGS SAFRR-led Scenario

  5. But, we have lots of other faults and earthquakes; it’s not all about the “Big One”…. Let’s look at the Hayward Fault

  6. HayWired: Why the Hayward Fault? Why now? Urgent to reduce risk. The Hayward Fault is arguably the most urbanized active fault in the United States. It offers an informative case study of the effects of a large urban earthquake on a modern U.S. metropolis. Despite major investments in earthquake counter-measures since the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake (~$50B), many vulnerabilities remain.

  7. HayWired SIR Vol. 2 – innovations & impacts/results • HAZUS MH • HAZUS aftershocks analyses • Life safety building codes are not enough, according to poll; immediate occupancy codes are preferred (more resilience) • Drop, Cover and Hold On (DCHO) and ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) can prevent many injuries and costs • Urban Search & Rescue will tax firefighters’ resources; people will be trapped: • elevators without backup power • collapsed buildings • Significant losses from water supply disruption and fire following earthquake

  8. Some high bang-for-the-buck mitigation options Building code enhancements Portable water supply system Accelerate water pipe replacement Elevator emergency power Earthquake early warning + DCHO (And fix bad existing buildings, like SF, Berkeley, Santa Monica...)

  9. HayWired Volume 3: Societal Consequences • Benefits of earthquake early warning • Lifeline infrastructure exposure to hazards • Communities-at-risk • Telecommunications and Internet • Economic impacts: jobs, digital economy

  10. "Good science, when applied in the way that the people of Alaska have done,made the difference between an emergency and a tragedy."Charles Groat, Director, United States Geological SurveyEach day, the Trans-Alaska oil pipeline carries one million barrels of oil, about 17% of the domestic oil supply for the United States, valued at about $25 million. If the pipeline had ruptured during the 2002 Denali earthquake, the lost revenue and cost of repair and environmental cleanup would have been incalculable. Design & Mitigation Work: How we can fight and win! M 7.9 - similar to the anticipated San Andreas fault 'Big One' How to improve our transportation robustness?

  11. Seismic retrofitting works for securing critical infrastructure Over $50 billion spent on earthquake counter- measures in SF Bay Area since 1989 earthquake but more remains to be done HayWired will help… SFPUC water main crossing Hayward Fault in Fremont, CA has been retrofitted to handle fault slip & equipped with shut-off valves

  12. Earthquake Counter-Measures; Risk Reduction • Risk is high where humans and hazards collide • Identify areas at high risk and fix them • Disaster vs. Catastrophe • It makes sense to fix things before disaster strikes • Identify intersections of hazards & assets • Ports, cities, mountain passes (co-located lifelines) • We can combat earthquakes and save lives by reducing risk; this general approach will work, but requires creative thinking, hard work and resources to fix problems

  13. HayWired: Year of Intensive Interaction; Roll-Out Planning April 2017 Kick-Off Year-long series of - workshops - exercises - reduce risk Creation of a HayWired Partner Package Public Rollout April 18, 2018 ShakeOut: Oct. 18, 2018 Together… we can Outsmart Disaster

  14. Questions? hudnut@usgs.govdacox@usgs.gov

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