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POTENTIAL OF CONTROLLABLE CONSUMPTION IN CR possibilities of smart technologies application

POTENTIAL OF CONTROLLABLE CONSUMPTION IN CR possibilities of smart technologies application. Michal Macenauer Jiří Ptáček EGÚ Brno, a. s., e lectric power system operation and development ČEZ Měření conference, 2012. EGÚ Brno, a.s. Research, development, production,

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POTENTIAL OF CONTROLLABLE CONSUMPTION IN CR possibilities of smart technologies application

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  1. POTENTIAL OF CONTROLLABLE CONSUMPTION IN CR possibilities of smart technologies application Michal MacenauerJiří Ptáček EGÚ Brno, a. s., electric power system operation and development ČEZ Měření conference, 2012

  2. EGÚ Brno, a.s. Research, development, production,           engineering in the production, transmission,                    distribution and use of electricity, gas and heat • more than 60 years of history and experience (from the beginning of the interconnected power system of CR) • major activities:analysis of power system operation and its developmentfrom the short term to long-term and strategic considerations • long-term missions and goals: to be independent and credible long-term partner in the planning balance electricity and gas networks in CR (the balance between supply and demand or production and consumption) • company particularly focuses on: • analysis and development on system-wide basis • high-voltage electrical equipment, monitoring of operationand faults • network overvoltage, development of the protections, testing

  3. EGÚ Brno, a.s. Department of operation and development of power system • developing "Long-term electricity balances EC CR“ • calculations and analysis of electrical networks at levels 400 kV to 110 kV • calculations and analyses the source and the fuel base • developing “Typical Load Profiles” for electricity and gas distribution • preparation of data for regulated prices determination for electricity distribution • support for energy legislation and strategic decision-making, expert and advisory activities in the field of long-term electricity • maintaining a comprehensive database and simulation models for CR power system and developing technical database of the powersystemsofCentral Europe

  4. Contents • Control of thedemand side in general • balance between supplyand demand (production and consumption) • situation in CR • household and electro-mobiles consumption – controllability • Consumption and load shapes prediction • total values • load shapes • Analysis of control possibilities • preconditions • quantification • Summary

  5. Control of the demand side in general Balance between supplyand demand (production and consumption) • problematicissuein thebeginningbecauseofunreliabilityofproductionsources • methodsofregulationwerefoundthanks to development • thefollowingquestionwasanswered: How to provideindividualconsumerswithtake-off by theirtimeschemes? • solutionof balance becameaddedvalue – itisprovided as a serviceofpowerindustry to consumers, whopayfortheutilizationincrease. • time-independent energytake-offis utility – electricnetworks are invisible • nowrevivalofoldparadigm – to movesecuringthe balance partiallyback to thedemandside

  6. Control of the demand side in general • Largeconsumptionsector • shapeoftake-offisdetermined by technologicalrequirements • motivation to control on consumersideisrelated to pricesforpeak and lowload • Commercialconsumptionsector • shapeoftake-offisdetermined by operationalrequirements • partlycontrolled by HDO • Household consumption sector • shapeoftake-offismostlydetermined by scheduleofdailyactvities • partlycontrolled by HDO Situation in CR – current state – consumption structure Other (withoutpumpedstorage) Householdconsumptionsector Largeconsumptionsector Commercialconsumptionsector

  7. Control of the demand side in general Situation in CR – current state and future Current consumption sectors • Large consumption sector • Commercial consumptionsector • Household consumption sector New consumption sector • Electro-mobiles potentialisdetermined by prices on the market; technologicallyit has beenalreadysecured direct control has alreadybeenimplementedby HDO(Ripplecontrol)potentialofhighercontrolisinsignificantmildincrease in direct controlisanticipated direct control has already been implemented by HDOpotentialofhighercontrol significant consumption (6 % DNC in 2040)issueofthecapacitynecessityofcharging-controlcoordination

  8. Control of the demand side in general Household consumption sector according to control possibilities • every appliance is controllable...the issue is added (reduced) value of the control • precondition: wedon’twant to reducethevaluearisingfrom electricity utilization • there are two kinds of consumption in termsof controllability: • Electricity consumption withpotentialoftimepostponingwhilemaintainingitsutilizationaddedvalue • appliancespartly independent on powersupplyorapplianceswhosereadiness and prompt response need not beimportantvalue • Consumption withoutpotentialoftimepostponingwhilemaintainingitsutilizationaddedvalue allothers, especiallythoseappliancesused in relativelyfixedtime

  9. Control of the demand side in general Household consumption – ways of controllable consumption control • Electricity consumption with potential of time postponing whilemaintaining its utilization added value a) DIRECT CONTROLappliances with efect partly independent on power supply period customer can fully leave the control under pre-determined conditions b) INDIRECT CONTROLapplianceswhosereadiness and prompt response need not beimportantvaluecustomerwilldecideif/when to leavethecontrol

  10. Control of the demand side in general Householdconsumption – typesof non-controllableconsumption • Consumption without potential of time postponing whilemaintaining its utilization added value a) STRICTLY NON-CONTROLLABLEappliancesused in relativelyfixedtimecontroltotallyimpossible b) USUALLY NON-CONTROLLABLEappliances whose control is connected with partial loss of comfortemergency control possible

  11. Control of the demand side in general Electro-mobiles consumption – possibilitiesornecessityofcontrol • newsector – uncertainfuturedepends on many factorsthat are difficult to predict, • electro-mobilesconsumption in case of 100% substitution couldtotal13 TWh(in 2060 itwouldaccountfor 15% DNC), • itwillbelowervaluebecauseofcircumstances, • electro-mobileswillbe a significantproblemfor balance ensuringespecially in distributionnetworks – significantpowerproblems – necessityof big investments in high and lowvoltagegrids, • Electro-mobiles consumption character: • controllable and non-controllable(in certainproportions) • controllable part is: directlycontrollable and alsoindirectlycontrollable

  12. Control of the demand side in general Electro-mobiles consumption – possibilitiesofstorage • due to electro-mobilesoperationcharacterwecananticipate: • about60% ofenergywillbeused up in theevening and night times – possibilityof night consumption decreasecompensation, • onlyabout 1/5 ofelectro-mobilescanbeused in the mode ofpower and energy supply (1/5 ofelectro-mobilesconnected to the network atthesametime), • possibilityofpostponedcharging (necessity to plantheoperationinterruptionofelectro-mobiles) poses a significantlossofcustomercomfort (limited numberofcycles... about 3000).

  13. Control of the demand side in general Consumption according to controllability DIRECT CONTROL INDIRECT CONTROL CONTROLLABLE NON-CONTROLLABLE STRICTLY NON-CONTROLLABLE USUALLY NON-CONTROLLABLE

  14. Contents • Control of thedemand side in general • balance between supplyand demand (production and consumption) • situation in CR • household and electro-mobiles consumption – controllability • Consumption and load shapes prediction • total values • load shapes • Analysis of control possibilities • preconditions • quantification • Summary

  15. Consumption and load shapes prediction Prediction of annual consumption values of sectors and DNC + 33 % + 24 %

  16. Consumption and load shapes prediction Prediction of household sector load shapes – three views (MW) 1st Sunday of April – day with high load Day of minimum – day with minimum load 3rd Wednesday of April – day with medium load

  17. Consumption and load shapes prediction Prediction of annual values of electromobiles consumption 2,8 TWh 950 GWh low reference high history

  18. Consumption and load shapes prediction Weekday and weekend load shape in 2020 and 2030 - comparison Prediction of the electro-mobile load shape workingday non-workingday Weekday 2030 power (MW) workingday non-workingday Weekend 2030

  19. Consumption and load shapes prediction Summary – consumption and loadshapesprediction • between 2015 and 2030 weanticipate: • increase in DNC ofabout 27 %, • increase in househodsectorconsumptionofabout 18 %, • increase in commercialconsumptionsectorofabout 29 %, • householdsectorconsumption diagram: maximum and minimum loadwillincrease by about18 % between2015 and 2030, • commercialsectorconsumption diagram: maximum loadwillincreasebyabout16 % between 2015 and 2030, minimum willincrease by about24 % (in accordancewithpreconditionofseasonalbalancing), • Electro-mobilessector: 840 thousandcars – about950 GWhyearly.

  20. Contents • Control of thedemand side in general • balance between supplyand demand (production and consumption) • situation in CR • household and electro-mobiles consumption – controllability • Consumption and load shapes prediction • total values • load shapes • Analysis of control possibilities • preconditions • quantification • Summary

  21. Analysis of control possibilities Preconditionsfordirectcontrol • directcontroliscurrentlyimplemented by HDO, • direct controlcanbeimplemented by anyway(itdepends on market organisation and settingrules), • characterof direct controlissignificant: customercanfullyleavethecontrolunderpre-determinedconditions (numberofhoursor basic parametersofcontrolscheme), • Theaimofthe controlling subjectis to modifytheshapeoftheload digram – a customergetspricebenefitsforprovidingthe consumption forcontrol, • Unfortunately, thecurrentstateisspecific by stronglyunsuitable rule setting(tariffpolicy) ofthisservice– in somecasesitleads to misusing and thereby to deteriorationoftheprice benefit service (costs are thusunfairlydividedamongcustomers).

  22. Analysis of control possibilities Development of direct control for household sector – three views (MW) 3rd Wednesday of April – day with middle load 1st Sunday of the year – day with high load Day of minimum – day with minimum load (weekday)

  23. Analysis of control possibilities Summary – direct control • household consumption sector: • mild decrease in total annual energy in 2030 to about 97.8% of 2015 value is anticipated especially because of buildings insulation and higher efficiency of warm utility water use, • average annual power of direct control: anticipated on the level of 360 MW in long-term horizon, • annual energy of direct control diagram is anticipated on the level of 3.1 TWh (about 5.3% of today’s DNC), • commercial consumption sector: • increase in total annual energy is anticipated in 2030 to the level of 109.3% of 2015 value especially because of commercial consumption sector development (economic growth of CR), • average annual power of direct control for commercial consumption sector is anticipated on the level of 130 MW, • annual energy of direct control diagram is anticipated on the level of 1.1 TWh (1.9% of today’s DNC).

  24. Analysis of control possibilities Preconditionsforindirectcontrol • indirectcontroldoes not havepotential in commercial consumption sector – (shapeofload diagram isdetermined by production and addedvaluerequirements), • onlyapplianceswithcontrollable consumption willparticipate in indirectcontrol(applianceswhosereadiness and prompt response need not beimportantvalue) – washingmachine and dishwasher, • consumption withstrictly non-controllablecharacterwasseparated(appliancesused in fixedtimes) – consumptionforcookingmainly, • only intra-dayshiftsof part of consumption are possible, • operationallimitsforcontrolwere set and observed– diagramsof maximum consumption availableforconnecting and disconnecting in certainhours(very complicatedissue).

  25. Analysis of control possibilities Structure of electricity consumption for average household

  26. Analysis of control possibilities Structure of electricity consumption for average household

  27. Analysis of control possibilities Limits of indirect control – 1st Sunday of 2030 maximum availability of switched off appliances power (MW) maximum availability of switched on appliances

  28. Analysis of control possibilities Limits of indirect control – 3rd Wednesday of April 2030 maximum availability of switched off appliances power (MW) maximum availability of switched on appliances

  29. Analysis of control possibilities Limits of indirect control – a day of minimum in 2030 maximum availability of switched off appliances power (MW) maximum availability of switched on appliances

  30. Analysis of control possibilities Indirect control – balancing of household consumption sector shape – 1st Sunday of 2030 householdconsumptionshape Optimization to household consumption sectorshape householdconsumptionshape withoutdirectcontrol householdconsumptionshape withoutdirectcontrolandstrictlynoncontrollableconsumption power (MW) householdconsumptionshape withoutdirectcontrolandstrictlynoncontrollableconsumption balanced householdconsumptionshape balanced

  31. Analysis of control possibilities Indirect control – balancing of household consumption sector shape – 3rd Wednesday of 2030 householdconsumptionshape Optimization to household consumption sectorshape householdconsumptionshape withoutdirectcontrol householdconsumptionshape withoutdirectcontrolandstrictlynoncontrollableconsumption power (MW) householdconsumptionshape withoutdirectcontrolandstrictlynoncontrollableconsumption balanced householdconsumptionshape balanced

  32. Analysis of control possibilities Indirect control – balancing of household consumption sector shape – day of minimum in 2030 (weekday) householdconsumptionshape Optimization to household consumption sectorshape householdconsumptionshape withoutdirectcontrol householdconsumptionshape withoutdirectcontrolandstrictlynoncontrollableconsumption power (MW) householdconsumptionshape withoutdirectcontrolandstrictlynoncontrollableconsumption balanced householdconsumptionshape balanced

  33. Analysis of control possibilities Indirect control – balancing of DNC shape – 3rd Wednesday of April 2015balanced 2030balanced optimization to DNC shape power (MW) 2015 2030

  34. Analysis of control possibilities Indirect control – customers’ willingness For 50% of original price => estimated utilization of about 22% % utilizationofwholepotential 22% of potential % originalprice highestim. reference estim. lowestim.

  35. Analysis of control possibilities Indirectcontrol – summary • percentageexpressionofcontrolpossibilities – 2015 – dailylevel(% ofdailyhousehold consumption sector):

  36. Analysis of control possibilities Indirectcontrol – summary • percentageexpressionofcontrolpossibilities– 2015 – dailyenergy (GWh):

  37. Contents • Control of thedemand side in general • balance between supplyand demand (production and consumption) • situation in CR • household and electro-mobiles consumption – controllability • Consumption and load shapes prediction • total values • load shapes • Analysis of control possibilities • preconditions • quantification • Summary

  38. Summary Direct control • majority of controllable consumption in CR is controlled directly by HDO (about 81%) • Only minor increase in controllable energy is anticipated for direct control (0.7% between2015 and 2030) Indirect control • indirect control is not applicable in production sectors (large consumption sector, commercial consumption sector) – the load shape is determined by technological and operational requirements • energy for indirect control for household consumption sector is anticipated on the level ofabout 5.4 % of daily consumption • whilerespecting the estimated willingness of customers itwill only accountforabout 1/5 of the theoretical potential, it is about 1.2 % of daily consumption (the level of 50%for price benefits) • utilization for electro-mobiles sector – significant potential

  39. Finally, let’s think about... • Is the potential of indirect control on the demand side usable for common operation of theCzech power system? • the effect has stochastic character – it cannot be used directly as ancillary service guaranteeing the effect • the functionality is conditioned by adequate price benefit(or price disadvantage … not applicable) • additional tool for ensuring the balance especially in emergency cases (switching off certain consumption sectors) – the precondition is appropriate adjustment • it can reduce investments in infrastructure connected with anticipated electro-mobile sector development (especially in big agglomerations) – the most significant potential

  40. Thank you for your attention. michal.macenauer@egubrno.cz jiri.ptacek@egubrno.cz EGÚ Brno, a. s.electric power system operation and development

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