Minnesota’s Changing Healthcare Labor Market

1. Kyle Uphoff Regional Analysis & Outreach Manager MN Dept. of Employment & Economic Development 651-259-7185 Kyle.uphoff@state.mn.us Minnesota’s Changing Healthcare Labor Market

2. About DEED’s regional analysts • Collaborate with regional stakeholders on new research • Extend access to DEED reports and statistics • Conduct presentations and training onregional economy and labor market • Original research and analysis intended to answer “the tough questions” • Five regional analystsstationed across the state

3. Labor market information (LMI) • Each state produces employment and economic statistics in cooperation with U.S. Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics • LMI includes statistics about labor supply and demand, workers’ characteristics, industries and more… • LMI is the foundation for informed, market-responsive planning

4. What is labor market information? • Labor market information is any information about people, work and the job market: • Geographic area – where people work • Industry or business – who people work for • Occupation – what people do • Wages – how much they earn

5. How do we get this information? From businesses • There are over 170,000 employers in Minnesota. • Over 200,000 people are self-employed and own their own business. From households • Minnesota’s population is 5.3 million. • There are 2.9 million workers in Minnesota.

6. Healthcare in Minnesota • Healthcare is a major industry in Minnesota accounting for 390,000 jobs or 12.4% of total employment. • Healthcare has added 73,700 jobs since 2000 for a growth rate of 27%- the highest growth rate of any industry in the state. • Healthcare accounts for 23% of open vacancies in Minnesota and has historically experienced some of the most intense workforce shortages.

7. Employment Trends Over Ten Years

8. Minnesota’s Unemployment Rate Seems to have Plateaued and is decreasing

9. Industries losing jobs in MN since March 2008 • Total Employment: -140,000 in 2 years • Construction: -28,600 (-36,800 in 3 years) • Manufacturing: -42,550 (-46,700 in 3 years) • Wholesale: -6,500 • Retail: -19,000 • Transportation: -10,000 • Information: -3,700 • Professional & Technical Services: -11,000 • Employment Services: -9,000 • Leisure & Hospitality: -12,800

10. Temp Agency Employment tells us Something about Total Employment

11. A few Industries are still adding jobs • Healthcare: +8,300 • Social Assistance: +5,100 • Wholesale Nondurable: +1,100 • Insurance: +1,200 • Food Manufacturing: +1,000 • Utilities: +650 • Education: +3,600 • Government: +200

12. Employment Change since 1991: MN Manufacturing vs. Healthcare

13. Healthcare has been rapidly adding jobs in specific sectors

14. Projections: 2009-2010

15. Projected Employment in Healthcare: 2009-2010, Minnesota • Ambulatory Healthcare: +3,281 +2.5% • Offices of Dentists: +418 +2.5% • Offices of Doctors: +1,652 +2.5% • Hospitals: +653 +0.7% • Nursing and Residential Care Facilities: +976 1.0%

16. The Minnesota Job Vacancy Survey: Numbers and job titles of current openings How long have positions been open? Required education & experience? Starting wage offers? Occupations in Demand NOW! The MN Job Vacancy Survey www.positivelyminnesota.com/Data_Publications/Data/All_Data_Tools/Job_Vacancy_Survey

17. Job Openings have Collapsed as Unemployment has Increased

18. Job Vacancies in Healthcare-related Occupations

19. 4,400 healthcare occupation vacancies Hiring demand is the highest for many healthcare-related occupations Healthcare practitioners: 2,089 (1.4%) Healthcare support: 2,428 ( 2.7%) Job Vacancy Survey Findings 25,885 total job openings in the Minnesota job market at time of survey (4Q, 2009)

20. Attributes of Healthcare Practitioner and Technical Vacancies • 2,089 Vacancies in Minnesota • 50% of vacancies are part-time • 94% require education beyond high school and 29% require experience in the field. • 50% of vacancies have been open more than 60 days or are open continuously- 72% in 2001 • Median wage offer: $19.36 • Most common occupations • RN’s: 652 • LPN’s: 387 • Occupational Therapists: 104 • Physical Therapists: 107

21. Attributes of Healthcare Support Vacancies • 2,428 Vacancies in Minnesota • 70% of vacancies are part-time • 33% require education beyond high school and 18% require experience in the field. • 30% of vacancies have been open more than 60 days or are open continuously- 82% in 2001. • Median wage offer: $10.30 • Most common occupations • Home Health Aides: 1,328 • Nurses aides & orderlies: 862 • Occupational Therapist Assistants: 32 • Medical Assistants: 42

22. Registered Nurses (1) Home Health Aides (2) Nursing Aides & Orderlies (5) L.P.N.s (8) Occupational Therapy Assistants (26) Physical Therapists (30) Medical Assistants (34) EMT’s (35) Medical & Health Svcs. Mgrs. (37) Pharmacy Technicians (43) Occupational Therapists (44) Family & General Practitioners (52) Medical & Clinical Lab Technologists (56) Radiologic Technicians (64) Medical Scientists (68) Physical therapy assistants (75) Speech Pathologists (77) Pharmacists (79) Health Specialty Teachers (83) Massage Therapists (85) Dental Hygienists (93) Internists, general (94) Surgical Technicians (96) Healthcare is well represented among the highest demand occupations Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development

23. Are workforce shortages over? • Worker availability is the highest it has been in over 20 years and turnover has been falling but what happens when the labor market starts growing faster? • Educational system may be limiting in some occupations with output not necessarily keeping up with demand. • Wage issues are likely to become a bigger issue: Support occupations often require higher education but wages may make other occupations (with lower education requirements) more attractive.

24. MN 2006-16 Employment Projectionswww.positivelyminnesota.com/apps/lmi/projections/ • Projections are estimated over a 10 year period every two years for the state and regions (also nationally). • Projections are largely based on past trends. We cannot predict: • Recessions, depressions, energy crises... • Natural Disasters • Wars • Technology change • New business processes • Legislation (insurance!)

25. Healthcare is expected to add 74,000 jobs in MN 2006-2016

26. Healthcare makes up 3 of the fastest growing industry sectors (MN, 2006-16)

27. The aging population will drive healthcare growth between 2006-2016 while retirements exacerbate shortages

28. Network systems and data communications analysts Registered nurses Computer software engineers Dental hygienists Financial analysts Dental assistants Sales representatives Radiologic technologists and technicians Computer systems analysts Management analysts Pharmacists Minnesota’s fastest growing occupations • Industrial engineers • Accountants and auditors • Medical and clinical laboratory technologists and technicians • Paralegals and legal assistants • Medical and health services managers • Securities and financial services sales agents • Child, family and school social workers • Human resources specialists Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development

29. Personal and home care aides Registered nurses Home health aides Combined food preparation and serving workers Retail salespersons Office clerks Customer service representatives Computer software engineers Maids and housekeeping cleaners Child care workers Sales representatives Truck drivers, heavy and tractor-trailer Social and human service assistants Janitors and cleaners Waiters and waitresses Accountants and auditors Bookkeeping, accounting and auditing clerks Executive secretaries and administrative assistants Nursing aides, orderlies and attendants Receptionists and information clerks Network systems and data communications analysts Occupations adding the most jobs in Minnesota Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development

30. Available job openings require higher amounts of education

31. Skills areas projected to be most utilized by future occupations: Reading Comprehension Active Listening Speaking Writing Active Learning Coordination Monitoring Instructing Critical Thinking Knowledge areas projected to be most utilized by future occupations: Customer Service Mathematics Clerical Education/training English Sales/marketing Psychology Computers/electronics Administration/management Skill and Knowledge Areas for “In Demand” Jobs

32. Demographics: Working in an era of shortage Labor Availability- Twin Cities Region

33. Labor Growth will Slow MN Demographic Center

34. Minnesota is Aging When will they retire? How productive can they be? Will there be enough?

35. Rural America is bottoming out MN Demographic Center

36. Migration will be Increasingly Important MN Demographic Center

37. Where can I get this information? • Kyle Uphoff (Manager): (651) 259-7185 • Central/SW: Cameron Macht (320) 231-5174 • Northeast: Drew Digby (218) 723-4774 • Northwest: Nate Dorr (218) 333-8220 • Metro: Rachel Vilsack (651) 642-0728 • Southeast: Jennifer Ridgeway (507) 285-7327 www.positivelyminnesota.com