Examination of the Mitigation Sections of the Initial Communications

1. Examination of theMitigation Sections of the Initial Communications The CGE Global Hands-on Training Workshop on Mitigation AssessmentsSeoul, Republic of Korea, 26–30 September 2005 Thematic Group on MitigationConsultative Group of Experts (CGE)

2. Background • Guidelines for the preparation of initial communications by parties not included in Annex I to the Convention (Annex to decision 17/CP.8) • Reporting on climate change: User manual for the guidelines on national communications from Non-Annex I Parties • Decision 3/CP.8, Terms of Reference, paragraph 9 • 31 NCs from NAI Parties were examined

3. List of national communications

4. Criteria for examination

5. Summary of examination • The scope, coverage and depth of reports vary significantly among Parties. • Information that many Parties elaborated well include: • Social and economic development framework for climate change mitigation • Identification of mitigation options related to the most important future sources and sinks sectors • Barriers and opportunities for implementation • Programs and measures implemented or planned that contribute to mitigate climate change

6. Summary of examination • Information that many Parties didn’t elaborate well include: • Tools/models and methods used to assess mitigation, sectors analyzed, data and/or information gaps, and limitations of the technical resources • Integration of GHG reductions and costs across measures and sectors, through the construction of GHG mitigation marginal cost curves • Qualitative description of main macroeconomic impacts of national climate change mitigation strategies • Assessment of key macroeconomic parameters

7. Mitigation assessment • Most Parties provided general information on the social and economic development framework for CC mitigation • Several Parties showed the main national economic and social trends, including GHG emission outlook • Time horizon: 2010, 2020, 2030 or 2100(Kyrgyzstan) • Many Parties provided only historical trends • No GHG emission forecast by many Parties

8. Technical resources for mitigation analysis • Major approach: bottom-up • Both B-U and T-D approaches by some Parties (India, Brazil) • Tools/models and methods • Major tools: LEAP and COMAP • MAKAL, EFOM, COPATH used by several Parties • Some Parties addressed the problem of lack of data

9. Baseline, mitigation scenarios and projections • Major parts that most Parties had difficulties in elaborating the information • Identification and screening of mitigation options relative well elaborated by many Parties • Many Parties didn’t provide any results on assessment of reduction potential and cost of mitigation • No GHG mitigation marginal cost curve by integration of GHG reductions and costs across measures and sectors • Tanzania: MC curves for energy and forestry sectors for 2030 • No macroeconomic assessment for mitigation options

10. Barriers and opportunities for implementation • Most Parties elaborated challenges/limitations well and described needs of financial and technical supports, capacity building, etc.

11. Implications and Recommendations • Technical difficulties in analyzing mitigation potentials, costs and macroeconomic impacts • Technical support and capacity building for mitigation analysis needed for preparation of the informative second and where appropriate third NCs • Heavy data requirement • Standardization of time period for GHG emission projection and mitigation assessment

12. Problems to solve & Further works by CGE • Completion of examination for all 42 NCs • Cross check of examination results by thematic group members • Scope of report • 10/CP.2: refers only to programs containing measures to address climate change • 17/CP.8 & User manual: not for the initial communication • Thematic group: 10/CP.2 including information which are not required by 10/CP.2, but provided.