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The Next 100 Generations of Risk Assessment, Resilience and Early Warning Systems for Weather/Climate Related Hazards for the Benefit of Humanity: IAA-IGMASS action and new development in ACP Countries By Tomukum Chia , Cameroon, Africa , Email: glocecohadim@justice.com . Key Words

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  1. The Next 100 Generations of Risk Assessment, Resilience and Early Warning Systems for Weather/Climate Related Hazards for the Benefit of Humanity: IAA-IGMASS action and new development in ACP CountriesBy TomukumChia, Cameroon, Africa, Email: glocecohadim@justice.com. Key Words Space Based Instruments, Ground Segments, Climate change, Risk Assessment, EWS, EO, Monitoring, Enabling and Empowering Humanities

  2. Outline A - Introduction, Summary DVD one minute Film on Risk Assessment, Resilience and Early Warning Systems on weather/climate related hazards in ACP Countries B - Aims/Objectives/Goals/Utility C - Background Information, Why the Next 100 years, IAA-IGMASS Project implementation in ACP Countries, Optimism of IAA-IGMASS and GLOCECOHADIM Projects D - Challenges and Opportunities- Looking into the future, The next generation optimal system Nigeria sat2, Hands on trainings and capacity building programmes, Achievements E – Recommendations and Upcoming Activities Expected ,-Mandated for 2015-2045,-call for joint efforts,-Concrete gaps, welcome action pledges F – Conclusion – The New factor of heliogeobiocorrelation terrestrial applications could provide substantial benefit in a timely development of green system with improvement in space energy conversion technology utilization. Looking to a longer term of 100 years,advanced space systems might also provide alternative approaches to renewable energy and green systems,- TomukumChia , remarks.

  3. A - Introduction • A One minute DVD film on the subject with emphasis on Risk Assessment and EWSs for weather /climate related hazards • During 2007-2013,the Global Centre for Compliance, Hazards and Disaster Management, (GLOCECOHADIM),Cameroon, the International Academy of Astronautics (IAA) ,France, and the International Global Monitoring Aerospace Systems (IGMASS) Russia, conducted many studies of climate change and Green systems as part of the celebrations of the 50th Anniversary of the creation of IAA. • Key areas for consideration on the study included: -Observing the Earth from Space -Leveraging Space-Ground Systems Integration -Enabling New Green Systems and energy. Space applications offer a unique perspective of the earth its resources and human impact upon it.

  4. Introduction continue • In the history of humanity, no matter how many millions and billions of years that humanity existed and continue to exist in the system of indefinite, exponential development, weather/climate related hazards would continue, no matter where it all began, • I would like to take this opportunity to thank the world community particularly the formal Union of the Soviet Socialist Republic whose vital role as the first to initiate the first and most complicated step in the transformation of human terrestrial into human astronuatical • It was thanks to you that my presentation today at the UN/Belarus workshop is possible, • Thus the next 100 generations of all humanity is in space. A genius predictor K.E. Tsiolkovsky once said that –the earth is the cradle of humanity, but the future belongs to human astronuatical. • NB/ The cycle of the global climate change were formulated behind the cycles of solar activity.

  5. DVD Film on Risk Assessment and Early Warning Systems for Weather/Climate related hazards • FILMS IN PROGRESS

  6. Fig 1 IGMASS DESIGN, DEVELOPMENT AND IMPLEMENTATION PROSPECTS

  7. B - Aims/Objectives/Goals /Structure/Utility • To understand the long term nature of weather/climate related patterns for accurate forecast • Providing data for weather analyses and forecast on national, regional and global levels • to solve the various problems dealing with on-line global forecast using effective real time EWS of global phenomena. • to monitor earth’s surface, atmosphere and near earth environment from space with the possibility to transfer observation data to ground situation centers which carry forecast and warning in quasi-real time to prevent natural and man-caused disasters • Main task are on remote observation of earth’s surface, atmosphere and ionosphere with use of visible and heat range equipment, low and high frequency wave complexes, complexes for monitoring of charged particles, magnetometers, mass-analyzers, spectrometers

  8. Objectives continue • To ensure a longer term record which requires a long term systematic commitment at local, national, regional and international levels, • To create another opportunity for the introduction of New Classes of so-called Green Propellants • To introduce terrestrial applications that provide substantial benefits in the timely development of green systems through improvement in space energy conversion technology • To create an advanced energy stage technologies for many years to come • To support the evaluation of vulnerability from climate events • To create and monitor Growth Corridors across ACP and the developing and developed countries as a robust for sustainable growth • To formulate the newest technology options for integrated closed-loop Eco-systems • To enable and enhance future space systems that could deliver solar power from orbit into longer term and providing enormous amount of carbon-free energy for all nations • Have a longer term vision for the development and utilization of in-situ-resources including the moon and near – earth-objects NEO , that would provide vast new resources for space and terrestrial economies with virtually zero climate impact.

  9. Goals • Decreasing of danger and negative consequences of natural and man – caused disasters for population and economic potential in the field of monitoring of earth lithosphere, atmosphere and ionosphere. • How these goals can be achieved: By means of effective development and mutual use of space potential, advanced monitoring technologies and procedures for data processing • On-line and operational delivery of necessary information to sates authorities both in Europe, Africa, USA, Asia and Australia in the interesting of hazards reducing • Remote education (distant learning),training specialists in the field of monitoring, forecast with the use of advanced space and information technologies

  10. Structure of IAA-IGMASS PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION Consist of space, air, and ground segments • Orbital segment of the systems has to consist of upper (GEO) and lower deck groups of satellites-also uses extra info obtained from satellites of other international disaster monitoring systems (GEOSS, GMES, DMC, Charter Disaster, Sentinel Asia). • The space-based segment enables obtaining of background distributions and emission of disturbances of thermal magnetic, and gravitational fields and plasma in ionosphere and detects changes in the ozone layer and atmosphere • It also detects geodynamic transformations in Earth’s crust and hydrodynamics fluctuations in underground waters, which could be forerunner of natural and man made disasters • Obtained data are transmitted to the situational centers for control during emergency situations which supplies users with information on results of monitoring.

  11. Structure of Global system providing monitoring information has three levels • 1st level includes international centers for control during emergency situations which are situated in Moscow, Geneva, Madrid, New York and other cities • 2nd level includes national centers for control during emergencies • 3rd consists of ground stations that provide obtaining of space data • Creation and operation of the system results in effect which has humanitarian, economic and ecological aspects • humanitarian ecological and economic

  12. Utility of IAA-IGMASS Initiative • UN to be a “one-stop-shop” for information and a platform for fostering alliances • Be user driven, that the work should be carried out to benefit the users community • Contribute to bridging the gap between the disaster management and space communities by creating a forum where all can meet • Make optimal use of the existing resources of space agencies • Focus on existing gaps that are limiting the use of space technology in risk reduction and disaster management • Have information, coordination and operational functions

  13. C – Background Information, Why 100 Years • The cycle of the global change of climate were followed behind the cycles of solar activities, • The long term nature of climate patterns necessitates that observation data be adequately preserved over long periods of time to ensure reliable long term records • The human race survived, survives and will survive within zone of permanent threats and risk which are an integrated component of all spheres of its activities • The epochs ,generations and technologies have been passed and disappeared/ mitigated, some were handed down to the next generations but for all the new threats and risks were always arisen, at a significant scale more menacing than the previous ones • Figures on disasters threads depicts schematically the global external and internal threats whereby humanity enters the post industrial phase of civilization-information society. • Hence are given the key contradictions remaining in force like exponent growth in population, limited resources, high frequency of weather/climate related hazards, cyclones of solar activity, asteroids attach/comet affects humanity. • Collision of the earth with big asteroids and comets were led to universal cataclysms-This sword of Damocles hangs permanently over the earth.

  14. Monitoring Natural Fires, Solar activities, Emergencies, catastrophes, Space Debris., asteroids, and comet hazards,

  15. Promoting the Monitoring of global phenomena

  16. Background information - Threat and risk classification • Risk of planetary scale can be divided into external and internal risks • External risk is due to the cycles of solar activity and global change of the condition • Risk of collision with asteroids and comet • Internal risks are caused by natural anthropogenic natural dangerous phenomena and processes • Risk of anthropogenic impacts • Risks of global changes of climate, degradation of environment • Ecological risks • Risk of depletion of renewable and non-renewable resources • Risk to induce the dangerous natural phenomena • Technological risks • Social risk of population explosion, terrorism, drugs distribution, risk of deteriorating of humanity’s gene pool and risk of civilizations

  17. Seismic Forecast Monitoring GIS portal project handling complex solutions on EWS and Forecast of devastating natural phenomena

  18. Integrating both existing and future national and international systems for monitoring global phenomena

  19. Integrated Data Viewer System for MonitoringEvaluation of Long term Climatic Data in the Lake Chad Basin

  20. Population affected by disasters in Africa

  21. Optimism of the project/programme • Humanity will soon be at the end of the available resources and weather/climate related hazards will increase drastically • The future belongs to human astronuatical as the crisis of earth civilization is steadily approaching, connected with exhausting resources required for civilized development • The 21st century stick only to the ecological problems of weather/climate change as a result of greenhouse emissions, lack of fresh water, pollution, soil degradation, depletion of ozone layer and natural resources, desertification and disorder of biogeochemical cycles • Pessimist scientist are forecasting the beginning of global ecological catastrophes in the next 100 years – a problem of ecological security is the problem of mankind development,

  22. Achievements • Monitoring and forecasting of emergency situations, earth quakes, floods, droughts, tsunamis waves, volcano eruptions and landslides • Dissemination of special and urgent global information about changes in lithosphere, atmosphere and ionosphere of the earth • Creation of the aerospace system which provide effective short-term forecast of origins and development of natural disasters and man caused catastrophes on earth • Demonstrating the possibilities of aerospace monitoring of the earth ,photos of catastrophes events • The programme of scientific research on creation of the system protecting the earth from collision with dangerous space objects • Space education in ACP countries through distant learning opportunities at Pan African Institute for Development, Cameroon, Africa ,etc • Development of a space facility with air and ground segments

  23. D – Challenges and Opportunities • Looking to a longer term advances space system of systems might also provide alternative approaches to green systems and renewable energy • Enable future space systems that could deliver solar power from orbit in the long term providing enormous amount of carbon- free energy for developed and developing nations • Creation of an integrated closed loop-eco –system • Seek for new space resource development with a longer term vision in the development, utilization of in-situ-resources including the Moon and near earth objects that could provide vast new resources for space and terrestrial economies with virtually zero Climate impact • Identify how best to develop and demonstrate transformational new green systems and energy technology remain our big challenge • Enabling new green systems and energy as a way forward • Providing free access to risk and vulnerability maps on weather/climate related events globally • Encourage and install distance learning opportunities globally

  24. Lake Nyos degassing project - Cameroon

  25. E – Recommendations and upcoming Activities expected • Joint efforts of many nations is highly welcomed ,with focus on existing gaps that ar4e limiting the use of space technology in risk reduction and risk management • Extending and establishment of regional and national IAA-IGMASS Centres/Modes on the international aerospace system for global geophysics phenomena monitoring and forecasting the origin and development of natural and man caused disasters on earth ands beyond • To provide access to and use all types of spaced based information to support the full disaster management cycle • UN-SPIDER/UNOOSA/ should coordinate as the one-stop-shop for information and a platform for fostering alliances • UN action should be user driven, involving the disaster management community at all levels with the intention of benefiting the user community • UN/SWF with other stakeholders should come together to bridging the gap between the disasters management and space community through forums/workshops/conferences in many countries • Make optimal use of the existing resources of space agencies, IAA,IGMASS, UNOOSA, GEOSS ,GMES, GLOCECOHADIM, Sentential Asia, JAXA,NASA,ESA etc • Develop a free knowledge portal on climate related hazards/weather maps

  26. F - Conclusion • Today’s task for the next 100 generations entails a transition to the stable development that assumes a step-by-step restoration of all natural ecosystems to an acceptable level that provides a stability of the environment and real opportunity for the existence of future mankind generations meeting their vital needs and interests, • Noting that space weather /climate are the major determining factors of the influence of near-earth objects on our daily life • Taking this factor into account, it is necessary to consider the influence of solar and geomagnetic activity on weather and global warming climate • However, as in creating models of sudden ionosphere perturbations in the periods of flares on the Sun and in creating models of UV and optical emissions of the upper atmosphere and ionosphere – thermosphere predictive models , the main problem remains that there are no data on the spectrum and the absolute flux of solar soft X rays and EuV radiation • This is one of our top priority directions as we leave this very important UN/Belarus Workshop, in Minsk,16, November,2013 • Alternatively, we can make a conclusion here that the Next 100 Generations Future factor of Heliogeobiocorrelation is hereby proposed whereby a microvolt radiation of the earth’s ionosphere, excited into Rydberg states by Super thermal electrons, most important photoelectrons of the earth’s upper atmosphere will influence the solar geomagnetic activity on weather and global warming climate. • THANKS FOR YOUR KIND ATTENTION TOMUKUM CHIA, Director General, GLOBAL CENTRE FOR COMPLIANCE.HAZARDS AND DISASTER MANAGEMENT,P.O.BOX 110,BELO BOYO,NORTH W3ESR REGION CAMEROON. Email: glocecoahadim@justice.com

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