Forecasting, Warnings and Evacuations

1. Forecasting, Warnings and Evacuations

2. Social Vulnerability Concepts • “Populations at Risk” • “Vulnerable Populations” • “Socially Vulnerable” • “Special Populations” Underlying each concept is that some citizens face higher risk of injury, property loss, or death because of their social and economic status and also because mainstream society marginalizes their cultural frameworks or situational locations (Phillips & Morrow, 2007)

3. Learning Goals • What are different ways of detecting hazards? • Understanding the importance of warning systems • Evaluate and select appropriate protective action for affected populations • Getting the Communities involved • Implications at the Jurisdictional level

4. General concepts… • Detect hazard • Seek additional information • Notify pertinent leaders • Activate the Emergency Operations Center (EOC) • Initiate the response

5. Hazard Detection • Senses • Feedback from field personnel • Dispatch • Increased radio traffic • News media • Hospitals

6. Hazard Detection (contd.) • Volunteers – ARES (Amateur Radio Emergency Services), RACES (Radio Amateur Civil Emergency Services), spot tornadoes and inform EM • Meteorological services and scientists – NOAA (National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration) • Technology – satellites, birds-eye view • Incident Page Network

7. Incident Page Network (IPN) • Sends alerts to your email, pager, cell phone or other wireless messaging device in real-time • Nationwide coverage, plus extended coverage in Canada and Australia • Worlds largest and most comprehensive breaking news notification network • Specific states, counties & cities, incidents, hours

8. Source Message Channel Receiver Effect Feedback Classic Persuasion Model Warning research: 1. hearing the warning, 2. believing that it is credible, 3. confirming the warning, 4.deciding if it pertains to the recipient, 5. determining if protective action is necessary, 6. deciding if protective action is feasible, and 7. determining what action to take

9. Environmental cues Social context Information sources Information channels Message content Receiver characteristics Predecisional processes Risk identification: “Is there a real threat I need to pay attention to?” Risk assessment: “Do I need to take protective action?” Information needs assessment: “What information do I need?” Protective action search: “What can be done to achieve protection?” Communication action assessment: “Where and how can I obtain this information?” Protective action assessment: “What is the best method of protection?” Communication action implementation: “Do I need the information now?” Protective action implementation: “Does protection action need to be taken now?” Protective Action Decision Model

10. Initial Steps a Person Takes • Seeking additional information -what happened? - has it been verified? - what are the consequences? - can city leaders or departments provide support? - what do first responders need? • Notifying and communicating with others - dispatch, field personnel, fire department

11. Thought Process • Assessment – information gathered, decisions made, message formulated • Dissemination – information relayed, time it is relayed, received and acted upon by public • Risk identification – do threats exist? • Risk assessment – protection required? • Risk reduction – is protection possible? • Protective response – what protective action is best and taking it

12. Watch and Warning • Watch – conditions are ripe for a hazard to occur • Warning – indicates hazard is imminent, is taking place, or has occurred - when, how long, - severity of impact, projected damages - potential power outages, - closed street areas

13. Types of Warning Systems • Sirens • Media • Emergency Alert System • Reverse 911 • Intercoms, Tele-typewriters, Telephone devices, strobe lights • Loud speakers, door-to-door notification, weather radios

14. Warning Considerations • Clear and accurate • Repeated and consistent • Credible sources must confirm • People perceive warnings differently

15. Why People Do not Evacuate? • Not aware of risk • Do not take the risk seriously • Warnings are not clear • Fear of looting • Age • Size and make up of family • Missing family members and pets • Neighbors behavior • Experience • Education, Type of housing

16. Evacuation • Horizontal and/or Vertical evacuation Procedures • Decision to evacuate • Notify population • Provide guidelines • Direct traffic • Ensure compliance and continued safety - stragglers • Monitor evacuation and traffic

17. Issues • Sampling vulnerable populations • Research teams • End user integration – participatory action research

18. Literature Overview - GENDER • Gender relations in family and work roles affect their vulnerability in different ways • Gender interacts with other variables to increase vulnerability – single-parents, females, lower income • Gendered practices thwart women’s potential contribution • Results in difficulties in responding to warnings and taking protective actions

19. Literature Overview • Limited research on what kinds of forecasting information the elderly want, through what channels, and how they come to a decision • Children • Race and ethnicity • Persons with disabilities

20. Getting the Community Involved • Discuss your work with friends and neighbors • Set up hazard hotline • Speak to various stakeholder groups – expand the pool of knowledgeable groups • Form citizen committees – neighborhood watch, CERTs

21. Implications at the Jurisdictional Level • Federal, state and local government agencies should work through peer groups rather than only through the newsmedia to increase hazard knowledge and trustworthiness www.opsplanner.com/Images/servicesolutiongrap...

22. Implications at the Jurisdictional Level • Increase support for public education programs by experts and knowledgeable organizations -FEMA, Red Cross, insurance agencies, disaster researchers www.isrt.com/simulation.jpg mainearts.maine.gov/organizations/community/i...

23. Implications at the Jurisdictional Level • Encourage formation and institutionalization of broad-based support groups for individual householders – Neighborhood Watch/ Community Emergency Response Teams http://www.tuscoema.org/CERT/Image2.jpg www.ci.daytona-beach.fl.us/police/images/CERT...

24. Implications at the Jurisdictional Level • Encourage businesses at the local level to participate in community dialogues to strengthen vertical and horizontal linkages – planning for business continuity http://www.controles.co.uk/solutions/business_continuity.jpg http://www.utopicsolutions.com/images/servic13.jpg

25. Implications at the Jurisdictional Level • Involve NGOs, NPOs, CBOs, religious organizations, and businesses during the early stages of risk communication www.volunteerministers.org/img/katrina/7_sept... medicine.plosjournals.org/archive/1549-1676/2...

26. Implications at the Jurisdictional Level • Renew funding for the ‘Community Partnership Model’ that was promoted by FEMA’s PROJECT IMPACT initiative to help transition from public education and preparedness to mitigation activities among local business communities and citizen groups

27. Reference: • Lindell, M.K., Prater, C.S. & Perry, R.W. (2006). Emergency Management Principles and Practices. Washington DC: John Wiley (Chapter 2) • Walter G. Peacock, Betty H. Morrow and Hugh Gladwin. Hurricane Andrew: Ethnicity, Gender and the Sociology of Disasters. Chp. 4 and 5.