OF MERMAIDS AND MANATEES THE MISIDENTIFICATION OF RISK Carl Taylor Center for Strategic Health Innovation
Where to Start? • There are basic needs or responses for any type of disaster. • However if you are starting here you are behind. • Unique events will require unique responses.
Purpose of the analysis is to identify what hazards pose the greatest threat to your: Hazard Vulnerability Analysis • community
Hazard Vulnerability Analysis • Benefits: • Prioritize mitigation/reduction and avoidance • Prioritize planning • Prioritize training and exercises • Better use of time
Hazard Vulnerability Analysis What is a hazard? • Internal threats such as loss of power • External threats such as mass casualties • Internal and External such as hurricanes or tornadoes
What Is A Vulnerability: Poor choices in planning and risk reduction Poor choices in social, political or economic decisions Natural selection such as location, population, geography
Process of evaluating risk associated with a specific hazard and defined in terms of: • probability & frequency of occurrence • magnitude & severity • exposure & consequences • preparedness Hazard Vulnerability Analysis Vulnerability equals hazard/threat probability, plus severity minus prepared response, or V = Pb + S - Pr
Consider each of the following when rating each potential hazard/event based on the following criteria: • Probability • Response time and scope • Human Impact • Property Impact • Business Impact • Preparedness • Internal Resources needed • External Resources needed
Hazard Vulnerability Analysis Who needs to be involved? • Safety Officer • Finance • Public Relations • Security • Risk Management • Infection Control • Administration • Plant Operations • Bio-med Engineering • Public Health Department • Emergency Management • Police and Fire • EMS • Haz-Mat • LEPC
Factors to Consider While Assessing Risks • Experience • Local resources such as EMA, LEPC’s and Public Health • Outside professional review • Self assessment including physical security, human resources practices, identification checks, technology and communications
Each hazard identified should be a chapter in your Disaster Manual Planning! Planning! Planning!
Each hazard identified should be a chapter in your Training Manual Training! Training! Training!
If this is such a good approach why do we always hear: “but its never flooded here before” or “we never thought this would happen”
January 4, 1493- Christopher Columbus wrote: “mermaids rose high out of the seas but they were not as beautiful as they are represented” BUYING HIGH AND SELLING LOW
We can blame our brain as optimism lights up our amygdala and rostral anterior cingulate cortex so we are wired (theoretically) to accentuate the positive and mute the negative Which leads to missing events which are rare, have extreme impact and are retrospectively predictable (Taleb) OUR COMMON PRESENT
Many of our risk and hazard evaluations follow the 4 M Fault Line The Motive- An illusion of understanding The Myth-That the NNT is 1:1 The Magnitude-Predicting failure The Management-arrogance of competence WHICH MEANS
We need to recognize that there is a gap between that risk we envision and that risk which needs to be envisioned We need to fill in that gap by recognizing there are unknown (to us) known's which if known can identify risks and enhance preparedness We must also include risk reduction/mitigation in our HVA as a way of eliminating disasters WHICH MEANS
CHOICES • Ask a black swan or • Create tools that visualize risk.
I TRACK Any situational awareness information from any source
To use discussions for information sharing realizing our communities may not be the first site to impacted. FORUMS
CHALLENGES REMAIN • The Domino Response vs. Shots on Goal • Silos of knowledge = Reductionism vs Systems Thinking • Biased advocacy depending on your domain • Managing our hypothesis instead of planning for uncertainty