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Chapter 13

Chapter 13. Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply. Learning Objectives. Define the aggregate demand curve Explain why it slopes downward Explain why it shifts Define the aggregate supply curve Explain why it slopes downward Explain why it shifts

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Chapter 13

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  1. Chapter 13 Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply

  2. Learning Objectives • Define the aggregate demand curve • Explain why it slopes downward • Explain why it shifts • Define the aggregate supply curve • Explain why it slopes downward • Explain why it shifts • Show how aggregate supply and demand determine short-run output and inflation • Show how aggregate demand, aggregate supply, and the long-run aggregate supply curve determine long-run output and inflation

  3. Learning Objectives • Analyze how the economy adjusts to expansionary and recessionary gaps • Relate this to the idea of a self-correcting economy • Use the aggregate demand – aggregate supply model to study the sources of inflation in the short run and in the long run

  4. Introduction • The Keynesian model assumes that producers meet demand at preset prices. • Does not explain inflation • Output gaps can cause inflation to increase or decrease • The aggregate demand - aggregate supply model shows both inflation and output • Effective for analyzing macroeconomic policies

  5. Interest in the Keynesian Model – An Example • Components of aggregate spending are C = 640 + 0.8 (Y – T) – 400 r IP = 250 – 600 r G = 300 NX = 20 T = 250 • PAE = 1,010 – 1,000 r + 0.8 Y

  6. Planned Aggregate Expenditures • Suppose the real interest rate is 5%, or 0.05 • Planned aggregate expenditures becomes PAE = 1,010 – 1,000 (0.05) + 0.8 Y PAE = 960 + 0.8 Y • Short-run equilibrium output is PAE = Y Y = 960 + 0.8 Y 0.2 Y = 960 Y = $4,800

  7. Fed Fights Inflation • Expansionary gap can lead to inflation • Planned spending is greater than potential output • The output level of full employment • Demand for output exceeds normal rate of production • If gap persists, prices will increase • The Fed attempts to close expansionary gaps • Raise real interest rate • Decrease consumption and planned investment • Decrease planned aggregate expenditures • Decrease equilibrium output

  8. Fed Controls the Nominal Interest Rate • Fed policy is stated in terms of interest rates • The tool they use is the supply of money • Initial equilibrium at E • Fed increases the money supply to MS' • New equilibrium at F • Interest rated decrease to i'to convince the marketto hold the new, largeramount of money MS MS' Nominal interest rate (i) F E i i' MD M Money (M) M'

  9. The Fed Fights Inflation Y = PAE Expenditure line (r = 5%) Expenditure line (r = 9%) E Planned aggregate expenditure (PAE) An increase in r shifts the expenditure line down and closes the expansionary gap G 4,600 Y* 4,800 Output (Y)

  10. Monetary Policy Rule (MPR) • The monetary policy reaction function shows the action a central bank takes in response to changes in the economy • Target inflation rate, *, is the Fed's long-term goal for inflation • Target real interest rate, r*, is the Fed's long-term goal for the real interest rate • If  > *, then r > r* • If  < *, then r < r* Slope = g MPR A r* Real interest rate set by Fed (r) * Inflation ()

  11. Inflation, the Fed, and the AD Curve • A primary objective of the Fed is to maintain a low and stable inflation rate • When inflation increases, the Fed increases the nominal interest rate which, in turn, increases real interest rates

  12. The Aggregate Demand Curve • Aggregate demand (AD) curve shows the relationship between short-run equilibrium output, Y, and the rate of inflation,  • Holds all other factors constant • AD has a negative slope • When inflation increases, theFed raises interest rates • Higher r means lower total spending • Along the AD curve, short-run Yequals planned spending Inflation () AD Output (Y)

  13. Y = PAE MPR B A PAE (r = r1) r2 A r1 PAE (r = r2) Planned Spending (PAE) B Real interest rate (r) 2 1 Y2 Y1 Inflation () Output (Y) • Initial conditions: 1, r1, Y1 • One point on AD • Suppose inflation increases to 2 • Economy moves to 2, r2, Y2 • Second point on AD 2 B Inflation () 1 A AD Output (Y) Y2 Y1

  14. Shifts in Aggregate Demand Curve • At a given inflation rate, aggregate demand shifts when • Exogenous changes in spending occur • Fed's monetary policy reaction function changes • Exogenous changes in spending are changes other than those caused by changes in output or the real interest rate • Consumer wealth • Business confidence • Foreign demand for US goods Inflation () AD' AD Output (Y)

  15. Exogenous Changes in Spending • Increases in aggregate demand could occur from a boom in the stock market • Consumer wealth increases • Consumption increases at each level of output and real interest rate • PAE curve shifts up • Y increases for each possible level of  • Aggregate demand curve shift right Inflation () AD' AD Output (Y)

  16. Fed's MPR Changes • The Fed's monetary policy reaction function ties inflation to real interest rates • Suppose the Fed's targets are 1 and r1 • MPR is shown in the graph • Fed normally follows a stable MPR • Fed can tighten or ease monetary policy • Shifts MPR • Tightening monetary policy lowers the long-run inflation target MPR r1 Real interest rate (r) 1 Inflation ()

  17. Tightening Monetary Policy • Tighter monetary policy results in each interest rate, r, being associated with a lower rate of inflation • A leftward shift of the MPR • The economy begins at the original target inflation rate, 1 • MPR shifts to MPR2 • Fed increases interest rate from r1 to r2 MPR2 MPR1 r2 r1 Real interest rate (r) 2 1 Inflation ()

  18. Easing Monetary Policy • Easing monetary policy results in each interest rate, r, being associated with a higher rate of inflation • A rightward shift of the MPR • The economy begins at the original target inflation rate, 1 • MPR shifts to MPR3 • Fed decreases interest rate from r1 to r3 MPR1 r1 MPR3 Real interest rate (r) r3 1 3 Inflation ()

  19. Shift in Aggregate Demand • MPR shifts up; interest rate increases from r1* to r2* • Higher r decreases PAE and shifts AD to AD' AD AD' MPR' Inflation () r2* MPR B Real interest rate (r) A 1 r1* B A 1* Y2 Y1 Inflation () Output (Y)

  20. Inflation and Aggregate Supply • Aggregate supply curve (AS) shows the relationship between the rate of inflation and the short-run equilibrium level of output • Holds all other factors constant • Aggregate supply curve has a positive slope • When output is below potential, actual inflation is above expected inflation • When output is above potential, actual inflation is below expected inflation • Movement along the AS curve is related to inflation inertia and output gaps

  21. Inflation Inertia • Inflation will remain have inertia if the economy is operating at Y* • No external shocks to the price level • Three factors that can increase the inflation rate • Output gap ■ Shock to potential output • Inflation shock • In industrial economies, inflation tends to change slowly from year to year for two reasons • Inflation expectations • Long-term wage and price contracts

  22. Inflation Expectations • Today's expectations affect tomorrow's inflation • Inflation expectations are built into the pricing in multi-period contracts • The higher the expected rate of inflation, the more nominal wages and the cost of other inputs will increase • With rising input costs, firms increase their prices to cover costs

  23. Expected Inflation • Expectations are influenced by recent experience • If inflation is low and stable, people expect that to continue • Volatile inflation leads to volatile expectations • Low and stable inflation creates a virtuous circlethat keeps inflation low • High and stable inflation creates a vicious circle that keeps inflation high

  24. The Role of Long-Term Contracts • Long-term contracts reduce the cost of negotiations between buyers and sellers • Cost - Benefit Principle • Labor contracts may be multi-year agreements • Supply agreements, particularly for high cost inputs, extend over several years • Long-term contracts build in wage and price increases that build in current expectations about inflation • In the absence of external shocks, inflation tends to be stable over time • Especially true in industrialized economies

  25. The Output Gap and Inflation

  26. The Aggregate Supply Curve Current inflation () = expected inflation (e) + inflation from an output gap • If the economy is operating at potential output, then= e = 1 at A • If the economy has an inflationary gap, Y > Y* and 2> e at B • If the economy has an expansionary gap, Y < Y* and 3< e at C • The AS curve slope up AggregateSupply (AS) B Inflation () 2 A 1 C 3 Output (Y) Y* Y2 Y1

  27. Shifts in the AS Curve • Two changes can shift the AS curve • Inflation expectations • Inflation shocks • If actual inflation exceeds expectations, expected inflation increases • AS curve shifts to the left • At each level of output, inflation is higher AS2 AS1 2 Inflation () 1 Y* Output (Y)

  28. Inflation Shock • An inflation shock is a sudden change in the normal behavior of inflation • A shock is not related to an output gap • A sudden rise in the price of oil increases prices of • Gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, heating oil • Goods made with oil (synthetic rubber, plastics, etc.) • Transportation of most goods • OPEC reduced supplies in 1973; price of oil quadrupled • Food shortages occurred at the same time • Sharp increase in inflation in 1974

  29. Inflation Shocks • An adverse inflation shock shifts the aggregate supply curve to the left • Increases inflation at each output level • Oil price increases in 1973 • A favorable inflation shock shifts the aggregate supply curve to the right • Lower inflation at each output level • Oil price decrease in 1986

  30. Long-Run Equilibrium • In the long run, • Actual output equals potential output • Actual inflation equals expected inflation • Long-run equilibriumoccurs at the intersection of • Aggregate demand • Aggregate supply and • Long-run aggregate supply Long-Run AggregateSupply (LRAS) AggregateSupply (AS) Inflation () AggregateDemand (AD) Output (Y) Y*

  31. Short-Run Equilibrium • Short-run equilibrium occurs when there is either an expansionary gap or a recessionary gap • Intersection of AD and AS curves at a level of output different from Y* • Point A in the graph • Short-run equilibrium is temporary LRAS AS1 Inflation () A 1 AD Y* Y1 Output (Y)

  32. An Expansionary Gap • Initial short-run equilibrium at A • AD is stable as long as there is no change in the Fed's monetary policy rule and no exogenous changes in spending • Inflation increases and expected inflation increases • Shifts AS curve to AS2 • Output is at potential, Y* • New expected inflation is 2 LRAS AS2 AS1 2 Inflation () 1 A AD Y* Y1 Output (Y)

  33. Adjustment from an Expansionary Gap • When output is above potential output, firms increase prices faster than the expected rate of inflation • Causes inflation to increase above expected level • As inflation rises, the Fed increases interest rates • Consumption and planned investment spending decrease • Planned aggregate expenditures decrease • Output decreases • This process continues until the economy reaches equilibrium at the potential level of output • Actual inflation is higher than initial level of inflation

  34. A Recessionary Gap • Initial equilibrium is at B, a recessionary gap • AD curve remains stable unless MPRF changes or exogenous spending changes • With inflation above its expected value, the Fedlowers interest rates • Aggregate supply shiftsto AS2 • The new long-run equilibrium is at potential output and an inflation level of 2 LRAS AS1 AS2 B 1 Inflation () 2 AD Y1 Y* Output (Y)

  35. Self-Correcting Economy • In the long-run the economy tends to be self-correcting • Missing from Keynesian model • Concentrates on the short-run; no price adjustments • Given time, output gaps disappear without any changes in monetary or fiscal policy • Whether stabilization policies are needed depends on the speed of the self-correction process • If the economy returns to potential output quickly, stabilization policies may be destabilizing • The greater the gap, the longer the adjustment period

  36. Self-Correcting Economy • A slow self-correcting mechanism • Fiscal and monetary policy can help stabilize the economy • A fast self-correcting mechanism • Fiscal and monetary policy are not effective and may destabilize the economy • The speed of correction will depend on • The use of long-term contracts • The efficiency and flexibility of labor markets • Fiscal and monetary policy are most useful when attempting to eliminate large output gaps

  37. Excessive Aggregate Spending Causes Inflation • Wars can trigger an inflationary gap • Economy starts in long-run equilibrium, 1 and Y* • Wartime government spending shifts AD to AD2 • Expansionary gap opens • Short-run equilibrium at 2 and Y2 • If AD stays at AD2 and the Fed does not change monetary policy, inflation is higher than expected • AS shifts to AS2 LRAS AS2 3 AS1 2 Inflation () 1 AD2 AD1 Y* Y2 Output (Y)

  38. Wartime Spending • The increased output created by the shift in aggregate demand is temporary • Economy returns to its potential output at Y* but at a higher inflation rate • Since Y had decreased, some component of aggregate spending has also decreased • As inflation rose, the Fed increased the real interest rate • Investment spending declined, crowded out by government spending

  39. The War and the Fed • The Fed can to prevent the increased inflation from the rise in military spending • The Fed aggressively tightens money during the military buildup • Real interest rates increase • Consumption and planned investment decrease to offset the increase in spending for the war • Lowers current and future standards of living • Planned spending is stable • No expansionary gap occurs

  40. US Inflation, 1960s • 1959-63 inflation averaged about 1% • By 1970 inflation was 6% • Inflation resulted from • Increases in government spending • Vietnam war caused defense spending to increase to 9.4% of GDP by 1968 and stay high • Great Society and War on Poverty programs • Failure of the Fed to contain inflation • Did not want to contribute to political turmoil • During the Reagan military buildup, the Fed successfully contained inflation

  41. Inflation in the 1970s • Inflation continued to rise in the 1970s • With inflation staying above 4% in 1971, Nixon imposed wage and price controls on August 15, 1971 • From 6.2% in 1973 to nearly 11% in 1974 • Inflation decreased 1974 – 1978, but increased again • 11.4% in 1979 and 13.5% in 1980 • Persistent inflation was caused by an adverse oil shock • Aggregate supply decreased, creating a recessionary gap • Stagflation, higher inflation and a recessionary gap, resulted

  42. Inflation in the 1970s • Adverse oil shock and stagflation are policy challenges • Government can keeps policies constant • Inflation will eventually decrease • Aggregate supply curve shifts right • Recessionary gap closes • However, economy has a prolonged recession while adjustment occurs • If the government attacks the recessionary gap with added government spending and loosening monetary policy, inflation increases • Higher and higher inflation rates resulted

  43. Inflation in the 1970s • Initial equilibrium is at 1 and Y*, potential output • Oil shock reduces aggregate supply to AS2 • Short-term equilibrium is a recessionary gap at 2 and Y2 • Government can increase AD to AD2 to address recessionary gap • Raises inflation to 3 • Government can keep policies constant and let the economy adjust back to AS1 with1 and Y* LRAS AS2 3 AS1 2 Inflation () 1 AD2 AD1 Y* Y2 Output (Y)

  44. Shocks to Potential Output • Oil shocks may lead to lower potential output • Compounds the inflationary effects of the shock • Suppose long-run equilibriumis at Y1 and 1 • Potential output falls to Y2and LRAS shifts to LRAS2 • Expansionary gap at Y1, 1 leads to lower output and higher inflation • Aggregate supply shock is either an inflation shock or a shock to potential output LRAS2 LRAS1 2 Inflation () 1 AD Y2 Y1 Output (Y)

  45. Greenspan, 1996 • The situation • With low unemployment, price and wage inflation were lower than previously at full employment • Inflationary pressures debatable • Rapid economic growth • Corporate profits were strong • Productivity was increasing • Greenspan believed the economy could continue to grow without increasing inflation • Fed did not increase interest rates

  46. Interpreting Macroeconomic Data • Productivity figures were hard to interpret • Business leaders reported productivity gains • Productivity gains did not appear in the government statistics • Service industries showed small or even negative growth in productivity • Large investment in technology was at odds with the data • Greenspan believed the productivity gains were real • Increased potential output s economy could grow without inflation

  47. Growth in the 1990s • Compared to 1985 – 1995 period, the last five years of the decade showed higher growth • Unemployment and inflation were lower • A positive shock to potential output causes the long-run aggregate supply curve to shift to the right • Downward pressure on inflation

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