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WATER SUPPLY

WATER SUPPLY. WATER MANAGEMENT. WATER QUALITY. GLOBAL FOOD PRODUCTION AND WATER - the Future Is Here - . Alberta Irrigation Projects Association November 27, 2012 Calgary, Alberta. Brent Paterson, P. Ag. Executive Director Irrigation and Farm Water Division

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WATER SUPPLY

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  1. WATER SUPPLY WATER MANAGEMENT WATER QUALITY GLOBAL FOOD PRODUCTION AND WATER - the Future Is Here - Alberta Irrigation Projects Association November 27, 2012 Calgary, Alberta Brent Paterson, P. Ag. Executive Director Irrigation and Farm Water Division Alberta Agriculture and Rural Development

  2. Future World Food Requirements • Global population is currently 7 billion, and is expected to grow to at least 9 billion by 2050. • World food requirements many need to double in the next 30 years.

  3. Future World Food Requirements Per Capita Food Consumption World Population Growth • Shift Towards More Animal Protein

  4. Percent of Animal-Source Foods in Diet China 1961-63 India 2007-09 Mexico Pakistan Japan Brazil Spain Italy USA 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Percent of animal-source foods in diet

  5. Food and Politics • Sharp increases in food prices due to world shortages. • July to September, 2010 wheat prices rose by 60-80%. • The “Arab Spring” uprisings were linked to discontent over food prices. • Food demand will continue to increase.

  6. The Biofuel Impact • Price increases for key food commodities in 2007/08 mirrored increases in energy product prices. • During that period, use of grain for ethanol production amounted to 110 million tonnes – about 10% of total world grain production. • Increased use of agricultural feedstocks may reduce availability of food and feed for human consumption. FAO - 2009

  7. OECD – FAO Agricultural Outlook • The strong rise in feed grain prices in the past five years is being reflected in higher meat prices. • Prices are projected to remain high throughout the next decade. • Real prices are currently at their highest levels of the past 15 to 20 years, and little moderation is expected as long as feed and energy prices remain high. Meat Prices ($US) 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 Beef Pork Poultry Source: OECD

  8. Undernourished People in the World 1100 1000 People (millions) 900 800 700 69-71 10 79-81 90-92 95-97 00-02 05-07 08 09 Years FAO – World Food and Agriculture in Review 2010

  9. Undernourished People in 2010 (millions) 19 37 53 239 578 Total: 925 Million

  10. World Food Production • The long-term ability to feed the world’s growing population will increasingly depend on: • An ever-shrinking land base; and • Increased competition for limited water supplies.

  11. Food Production • About 60% of the world’s food is produced on rainfed agricultural lands. • Significant production increases on rainfed land is not expected.

  12. Irrigated Food Production • Irrigation makes up nearly 20% of the world’s agriculture land base. • However, it produces nearly 50% of the world’s food. • Up to 80% of future food requirements may need to be met by irrigation.

  13. Projected Water Scarcity in 2025 • Many countries will be forced to abandon their policy of food self-sufficiency because of water shortages. Physical water scarcity Economic water scarcity Little or no water scarcity Seckler et al, 2002

  14. Global Water Security Study • During the next 10 years, many countries important to the U.S. will experience water problems that will: • Risk instability and state failure; • Increase regional tensions; • Distract them from working with the U.S. on important policy objectives. February, 2012

  15. Changing World Economy • Increasing the economic well-being of developing countries not only improves their quality of life, but translates into economic gains for the developed world. • Alberta and Canada would directly benefit. • Overall demand for food increase. • Demand for meat products increase. • Demand for higher quality food products increase.

  16. Potential for Developing Countries

  17. Increasing Productivity California Pakistan Wheat Yield = 6 t/ha Water Productivity = 1.3 kg/m3 Wheat Yield = 2 t/ha Water Productivity = 0.5 kg/m3 If developing countries improve their irrigation efficiency and crop yields, irrigation expansion could be avoided. Molden et al: Dialogue Working Paper 1, 2001

  18. Sub-Saharan Africa has considerable potential to develop water storage and irrigation systems that will significantly increase food production. Increased international investment is required for the construction of water infrastructure and management of water systems in developing countries.

  19. Nile River Basin • Longest river in the world. • Basin includes parts of 10 countries. • Under 1929 and 1959 treaties, Sudan and Egypt claim >90% of the Nile’s flow. • No other country can develop any works without their permission. • Many affected countries are now openly challenging this. Egypt Sudan South Sudan Ethiopia Kenya Uganda Dem. Rep of The Congo Tanzania

  20. Alberta’s agriculture industry is well positioned to economically benefit and help meet future world food needs. • However, translating opportunity into reality will not be easy.

  21. Brazil – A Success Story Brazil Cerrado Bolivia Paraguay Argentina

  22. Brazil’s Cerrado Region • In less than 30 years, Brazil has changed from a food importer to one of the world's largest exporters of soybeans, beef, chicken, orange juice, ethanol, and sugar. • EMBRAPA - Brazil’s agricultural and livestock research agency.

  23. Brazil’s Agriculture – 2009 World Share World Rank Orange Juice 1 1 1 Sugar 1 2 Soybeans 2 Production 3 Chicken 1 Exports 1 Coffee 1 2 Beef 1 4 Pork 4 4 Maize 2 5 Cotton 4 0 20 40 60 80 100 Percent Source: USDA

  24. Convert our strengths into economic reality: • Build on past success; • Re-invent the future; • Lead – not follow.

  25. Build on Past Success

  26. Large, well managed agricultural land base • 20 million ha. • Relatively abundant, good quality water supply • Small population • Strong drylandagriculture and • World-class irrigation. Agricultural Land Irrigation

  27. Water and Agriculture • Alberta has sufficient water to grow the economy, while sustaining our environment. • Intelligent management decisions have to be made. • First in Time, First in Right is the correct strategy for Alberta. • Water quality issues are being solved.

  28. On-Farm Irrigation Efficiency World average is about 43% • 1965 34% • 1980 58% • 1990 60% • 1995 65% • 2010 74% • Future 90+% Woods – 2010; Harms – 2012 (ARD)

  29. Increasing the Productivity of Irrigation Water 900 mm 11 t/ha Irrigation Water (millimeters) Barley Yield (tonnes/ha) 6.5 t/ha 380 mm 2.5 t/ha Irrigation Water Crop Yield 2015 1950 1990 2000 2010 1980 1960 1970

  30. Re-invent the Future

  31. Dryland/Irrigation • This combination provides huge advantages for Alberta – and it must operate as a partnership, not a competition. • Dryland cow-calf and feed grain producers depend on the irrigation feedlot and processing industries – and vice versa. • Seed canola industry (irrigation) supplies seed to most of Canada.

  32. Food Processing – A key Priority Sugar Beets Canola Meat Potatoes

  33. Integrated Ag. Industry • Cropping, livestock, processing and marketing sectors must be totally integrated. • Provincially, regionally and nationally.

  34. Market Branding • Significant penetration of new world markets will be most successful as a country – not as 10 provinces. • The Canadian flag is very recognizable, and a trusted symbol throughout the world.

  35. Leadership

  36. The “Leap Frog” Strategy The “catch up” strategy The “leap frog” strategy

  37. Marketing the Environment • Promoting environmental sustainability as a key part of our marketing strategy will open doors in the global marketplace. • There is increasing support by the growing middle class in India, China and other developing countries. • Increasing support in many developed countries.

  38. Irrigation District Water Quality Study Calgary Medicine Hat Lethbridge Primary source sites Secondary source sites Return flow sites

  39. The Future – Is Here! • Demand for food will continue to increase at a rate greater than population increase alone. • Demand for higher quality processed food is also increasing. • World food prices are likely to remain relatively high. • Opportunity exists for Alberta and Canada to become a food production powerhouse. • However, these opportunities will not translate into reality without a new strategic direction. • Better integration of our agriculture industry is required – provincially, regionally and nationally.

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