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Urban Growth and Land-Use Change: An overview for air quality models

Urban Growth and Land-Use Change: An overview for air quality models. Manuel Suárez Instituto de Geografía-UNAM. Contents. Overview (Urban growth in AQ models) Why cities grow the way they do (Location theory) Growth implications on land use change and emissions

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Urban Growth and Land-Use Change: An overview for air quality models

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  1. Urban Growth and Land-Use Change: An overview for air quality models Manuel Suárez Instituto de Geografía-UNAM

  2. Contents • Overview (Urban growth in AQ models) • Why cities grow the way they do (Location theory) • Growth implications on land use change and emissions • Building urban growth scenarios • Examples • Summary

  3. Population and economic growth Location Regional-urban srtucture VKT Urban Growth /Densification Land use change Transportation Infrastructure Urban Structure Mode Land use Distribution Roads Distribution nets Traffic Tech. Emissions Accesibility Exposure Energy efficiency Damage to ecosystems Health Cost

  4. Urban growth and urban structure determine: • Transportation emissions • VKT • Speed • Area emissions • City-wide population and employment densities (by type of economic activity • Point emissions (Industrial location/permitted land use)

  5. (1) (3) (4) (2) Urban location theory

  6. City size theory A $ Land Rent A´´ A´ M B B´ Center Distance

  7. Differential Urbanization (Regional)

  8. Possible impacts of types of urban growth on emissions

  9. Urbanization 1970

  10. Urbanization 1970-1980

  11. Urbanization 1980-1990

  12. Urbanization 1990-2000

  13. Peri-urban spaces 2000

  14. Área Locs < 2500 Area Urbana 2000 Crecimiento urbano 1990-2000 Superficie estimada:

  15. Regional Land Use

  16. Regional Land Use Change (Remote sensing) Mean urban population density: 80 p/Ha Mean urbanization density 1990-2000 (official): 25 p/Ha Mean urbanization density 1990-2000 (periurban): 8.2 p/Ha

  17. Scenario based urban growth forecast - 3 step model Calibrated model of urbanization probabilities Density scenarios Growth assignment Prediction of observed urbanization Trend Sensitivity analysis Population forecasts Replace variable values with forcasted values Estimated inhabited rural area

  18. Data sources • Population census data tract (AGEB) level • Economic census data tract (AGEB) level • Land use (remote sensing) • Main transportation infrastructure (Roads) • Population forecasts • Employment forecasts (Shift-share analysis) • Data should be available for at least two time periods

  19. Urbanization probabilities

  20. Urban expansion scenarios Urbanization probabilities

  21. Dinámicas regionales de expansión urbana

  22. Urban expansion probabilities in Mexico City’s Regional Belt 2020

  23. Urban ring structures

  24. Employment and population density by urban ring

  25. Puebla-Tlaxcala urban ring configuration Puebla-Tlaxcala-Apizaco

  26. Population and employment density profile by urban ring

  27. Logit model: urban growth probability u=

  28. Urbanization density scenarios

  29. Growth assignmentUrbanization in Puebla-Tlaxcala 2030, [preliminary] optimistic scenario (40 p/Ha)

  30. Summary • Urban growth models can help: • Forecast emissions • Area emissions through estimated/planned population density data • Transportation emissions with Mobile 6 or other (better) transportation models (i.e. 4 step transportation model • Guide planning policies through sensitivity analyses of AQ models

  31. Thanks for your attention!

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