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OECD-FAO Aglink-CO.SI.MO. Projection System

Favignana, 28-29 September 2009. OECD-FAO Aglink-CO.SI.MO. Projection System. by Stefania Vannuccini Fishery Statistician (Commodities) FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Information and Statistics Service. AGLINK MODEL. OECD Dynamic, partial equilibrium supply-demand model

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OECD-FAO Aglink-CO.SI.MO. Projection System

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  1. Favignana, 28-29 September 2009 OECD-FAO Aglink-CO.SI.MO.Projection System by Stefania VannucciniFishery Statistician (Commodities)FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Information and Statistics Service

  2. AGLINK MODEL • OECD • Dynamic, partial equilibrium supply-demand model • Yearly basis since early 1990s • Medium-term projections • Agricultural key commodities • Assumptions • Coverage • Close collaboration with member countries • Influence of agricultural policy

  3. CO.SI.MO MODEL • FAO World Food Model • FAO COmmodity SImulation MOdel • Yearly basis since 2004 • Updating Cycle • Coverage • Commodities • Macro economic assumptions • Parameters

  4. OECD-FAO Projection Work • Joint outlook preparation between OECD and FAO • Started in 2004 • Annual process • Expansion of OECD Aglink model to developing countries • Utilize global expertise

  5. Aglink – CO.SI.MO. • Partial Equilibrium Model • Projection systems to examine future potential impacts • Policy impacts • Economic scenarios • Link to food security indicators

  6. Aglink – CO.SI.MO.Key factors of assumptions • World markets for agricultural commodities are competitive • Domestically produced and traded commodities as perfect substitutes by buyers and sellers. • Importers do not distinguish commodities by country of origin as it is not a spatial model • Non agricultural markets, including fish, are treaded exogenously to the model

  7. Aglink – CO.SI.MO. • About 15 000 equations • 40 individual countries • 19 regions • About 40 commodities • About 26 000 variables • 17 world clearing prices • Simulation of market determination of equilibrium prices

  8. AGLINK-CO.SI.MO. COMMODITIES

  9. AGLINK COUNTRIES

  10. CO.SI.MO. COUNTRIES

  11. Data Requirements • Projections based on a calendar year (exc. crops) • Annual time series for: • prices (usually export prices) • supply (area, yield, animal numbers...) • demand (food, feed, crush...) • trade (exports, imports) • policy variables (tariffs, CAP...) • macroeconomic data (GDP, GDPD, private consumption expenditure deflator, exchange rates, Brent crude oil price) • Commodity Production Cost Index

  12. PARAMETERS/DATA • World Food Model, FAPRI, USDA, OECD, expert estimates, literature • Source of data: • Databases trade and market division FAO (EST) • FAOSTAT, national data, prices • OECD, EU Commission, USDA, national sources (politics) • COMTRADE (USDA), IDB and CTS (WTO), TRAINS (UNTAD), WITS (WB/UNCTAD), AMAD • IMF • UN population • Reuters • OECD questionnaires

  13. Projections and elasticities • Functional relationships linking supply and demand to prices are, in most cases, linear in the logarithms of the variables • Equation coefficients are partial elasticities • Source of elasticities • Global market projections=Baselines

  14. Scenarios • The baseline provide a benchmark for alternative scenarios • Scenarios try to address questions such as: • What are the likely impacts of market stocks? • What are the likely impacts of domestic policy changes? • What are the likely impacts of multilateral policy changes?

  15. OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook • Country views are the starting point • AGLINK CO.SI.MO is used to get a consistent and coherent picture • Model outcomes adjusted through expert opinions • Final reviews in OECD commodity working groups • The datasets are available at: www.agri-outlook.org

  16. OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook • Yearly • Preparation: November-April • Projections and related market analysis for some fifteen agricultural products over a ten year horizon • The result is a plausible set of conditional projections • It shows how these markets are influenced by economic developments and government policies and highlights some of the risks and uncertainties that may influence market outcomes

  17. Adding fish to the AGLINK-COSIMO • Inclusion of fish in the AGLINK – CO.SI.MO. model and in the FAO Agricultural Outlook • Species • Elements • Capture-Aquaculture for supply • Price index

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