Policy Document:

1. Policy Document: Young People’s Concerns and Recommendations for Climate Change Adaptation in Wales Eric W Pritchard Jeanette Reis Tara Thrupp May 2011

2. Executive Summary • The young people of today are the policy-makers of tomorrow and as such, it is vital that they are well informed and are given the opportunity to contribute to decision-making processes that will directly affect their future. • This document summarises the conclusions drawn from a series of workshops held across Wales, involving young people aged 15-16 years. In particular, it emphasizes young people’s responses to three realistic climate change scenarios, based on research collated by Cardiff University. Participants explored transport, critical infrastructure and settlement issues associated with temperature, rainfall and sea level change for the present day, in the year 2040 and in the year 2060. As well as identifying risks, young people were asked to explore options for adaptation and discuss issues of responsibility. • KEY POINTS: • The issues young people were asked to explore are particularly relevant to the evidence base and to the Climate Change Strategy for Wales • It is widely recognised that early engagement and dialogue offers the best opportunity for successful adaptation. This document provides a first step in involving young people in Welsh climate change adaptation policy-making • Young people need clear, accurate, balanced information. However, there remains some uncertainty about model projections • Young people consider that responsibility for adapting to the risks posed by climate change should be shared between individuals, communities and government • Coastal and inland flooding is considered to be the most significant risk to transport systems in Wales according to young people • Interruptions to power supplies are a particular concern of young people • Young people consider that settlement issues in 2040 could be met by existing technology. However, they suggest the need for more inventive approaches by 2060 • Additional emphasis needs to be placed on educating and equipping young people to adapt to a changing climate • Young people have a lot to contribute in terms of ideas and practical implementation. It is now up to the Welsh Government to hear, engage and respond to their messages and further include them in deciding their future.

3. Climate change concerns of pupils from King Henry VIII and Blaengwawr Comprehensive School, March 2011. Future intentions proposed by pupils from King Henry VIII and Blaengwawr Comprehensive School, March 2011.

4. Contents Executive Summary 2 Contents 4 Acknowledgements 5 1. Introduction 6 2. State of the Art: What Do We Know About Climate Change Science in Wales, and What Are the Issues We Foresee? 8 3. Why Are Young People’s Perspectives Required for Climate Change Adaptation Policies? 10 4. Views About Transport 11 5. Views About Critical Infrastructure 12 6. Views About Settlement 13 7. Views About Responsibility 14 8. Conclusions 15

5. Acknowledgements This document has been produced by the Beacons Young People’s Climate Change Project (YoCCo). We would like to thank our funders, the Beacons Programme for Wales1, Countryside Council for Wales2 and the INTERREG IVb IMCORE project3 for supporting this work. We would also like to thank the teachers and pupils of schools for their ideas and enthusiasm. Schools that participated in this work were as follows: Barry Comprehensive School, Barry Penglais Comprehensive School, Aberystwyth Ysgol Tryfan, Bangor Gowerton Comprehensive School, Swansea King Henry VIII School, Abergavenny Blaengwawr Comprehensive School, Aberdare. 1 http://www.engagingwales.org/ 2 www.ccw.gov.uk/ 3 Innovative Management for Europe's Changing Coastal Resource (IMCORE): http://www.severnestuary.net/sep/imcore/index.html

6. 1. Introduction • Scientific evidence supporting arguments for climate change is strengthening and it is looking more and more likely that today’s young people will have to make major lifestyle changes in the future. The young people of today are also the policy-makers of tomorrow and as such, it is vital that they are well informed and are given the opportunity to contribute to decision-making processes that will directly affect their future. • This document has been prepared to present the views of young people in Wales to policy makers and politicians involved in the climate change debate. It summarises the responses collated from a series of school workshops that took place in 2010 and 2011, organised by Cardiff University, the Wales Youth Forum for Sustainable Development and the Severn Estuary Partnership. • During workshops, 160 young people aged 15-16 years were asked to explore a number of future scenarios for Scott, an imaginary character, who lives in a low lying coastal settlement, typical of many small towns in Wales. During his lifetime, he has to identify and consider adaptation options for transport, critical infrastructure and settlement, taking into account a changing climate. Scenarios were developed that took into account Welsh temperatures, rainfall and sea levels for the present day, the year 2040 and the year 2060. • Project activities were specifically developed in response to Welsh climate change evidence and strategies. For example, Environment Agency Wales4research published in 2009 concluded that: • 220,000 properties in Wales are at risk of flooding, affecting one in nine of the population • 33% of Welsh railways and 11% of major roads are at risk from flooding • nationally important infrastructure such as oil refineries (Milford Haven) and power stations (Wylfa, Aberthaw, Uskmouth, and Pembroke) are located on the coast, as well as water supply and treatment facilities, electricity supply and distribution sites. • 4 Flooding in Wales: A National Assessment of Flood Risk, Environment Agency Wales 2009

7. In addition, the Welsh Assembly Government “Climate Change Strategy: Consultation on a Programme of Action”5 recognises that: ‘As a result of the greenhouse gas emissions that have already been emitted, we can not avoid the impacts of climate change entirely. We need to adapt to the changes that we cannot avoid, but we have to continue to reduce emissions at the same time or the impacts will be even worse’. It also recommends that: ‘The earlier Wales starts to prepare – by understanding our vulnerability to the impacts of climate change and increasing the resilience to these impacts – the better equipped we will be to cope in the future’. KEY POINT: The issues young people were asked to explore are particularly relevant to the evidence base and to the Climate Change Strategy for Wales. 5 Climate Change Strategy: Consultation on a Programme of Action Summary Version July 2009 http://wales.gov.uk/docs/desh/consultation/090625climateactionsummaryen.pdf Young people responding to the evidence base

8. 2. State of the art: What do we know about climate change science in Wales, and what are the issues we foresee? If today’s young people are to prepare for the future, they need clear, accurate, balanced information. Given the broad spectrum and questionable validity of information already available, the workshop team began by setting the scene, presenting best available climate change science and what a changing climate might mean for people living in Wales. The information presented at workshops was initially collated by researchers at Cardiff University based on UK Climate Predictions6. In all cases, medium emissions scenarios were assumed (i.e. levels of future greenhouse gases released via human activities continue to increase at the current rate). Care was taken to discuss where uncertainty exists. For example, it is very difficult to project levels of future greenhouse gas emissions, the science is still developing and natural variation is also occurring alongside human induced climate change. KEY POINTS: Young people need clear, accurate, balanced information. However, there remains some uncertainty about model projections. 6 http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk/ How Much? If we continue to release greenhouse gases at the current rate, scientists estimate that by the year 2095, sea levels in Wales could have risen by 35cms in the north and 50cms in the south.

9. Welsh Temperature Changes 2020s-2080s How Much? By the 2080s average temperatures in Wales could increase by up to 4 ˚C. Increases are likely to be greatest in summermonths. 2020s 2050s 2080s Source: http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk/content/view/1492/499/ Data based on medium emissions scenario > 3 - 4 ˚C > 2-3 ˚C > 1-2 ˚C How Much? By the 2080s summer rainfall may reduce by up to 30% in parts of Central and South Wales and up to 40% in parts of West Wales. How Much? By the 2080s winter rainfall may have increased by up to 30% in South and West Wales, particularly along the coast.

10. 3. Why are young people’s perspectives required for • climate change adaptation policies? • “We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors; we borrow it from our children” • - Ancient Native American Proverb • The generation about to enter adulthood are likely to see major changes in Wales due to climate change, particularly in coastal regions, and may have to significantly adapt to cope with changes in temperature, rainfall and sea level. • The importance of including young people’s perspectives in policy making is already recognised at UK level. • In December 2010, the Department of Energy and Climate Change Youth Advisory Panel published their first report7 focussing on their work and exploration of the possible energy pathways to 2050, based on the DECC Pathways Project. This report on UK energy policies was produced by people aged between 16 and 25, written from the perspective of those who will have to live with present decisions throughout their adult lives. The report calls for the government to: • Ensure a fair deal for young people in the decision-making process; • Actively work hard to ensure that Government does not lock young and future generations into ecological debt; • Continue engaging in dialogue with the youth constituency and stakeholdership to ensure that the youth perspective is heard, and responded to, by Government. • KEY POINT: • It is widely recognised that early engagement and dialogue offers the best opportunity for successful adaptation. This document provides a first step in involving young people in welsh climate change adaptation policy making. • 7Energy: How fair is it anyway? The Department of Energy and Climate Change Youth Advisory Panel. December 2010: UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Young and Future Generations Day London, Brussels, Cancun available from http://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/about/youth_panel/youth_panel.aspx

11. 4. Views About Transport Risk Factors Young people discussed risks of increased temperatures, rainfall and sea levels on road, rail and shipping infrastructure. Flooding was considered to be the most significant risk to transport systems in Wales. This included inland and coastal flooding. Adaptation Options It was proposed that there could be a need to elevate or move road and rail links, build embankments or bridges. Rail and associated mass transit systems such as monorail were seen as viable commuting systems in the future, although young people also concluded that walking, cycling and working from home to avoid commuting might also be popular options. There was an interest in taking to the water in hovercraft, water-taxis, boats and amphibious vehicles, showing that to some people sea level rise could be seen as an opportunity rather than a problem! Of course if an area is flooded there are three options, travelling around the water, through the water and over the water. For the latter option, some respondents did expect widespread use of personal aircraft to be a reality by 2060. KEY POINT: Coastal and inland flooding is considered to be the most significant risk to transport systems in Wales.

12. 5. Views About Critical Infrastructure Risk Factors Critical infrastructure, such as energy supply lines, power stations and communication systems were considered to be particularly at risk from coastal and inland flooding, as well as from temperature change. In particular, young people were concerned that settlement separated from distribution centres by areas prone to flooding may have to learn to live with power interruptions. Adaptation Options It was considered that there could be a need to move power lines, even before 2040, to avoid interruptions to energy supply caused by localised flooding. Renewable energy (wind, tidal, hydro-electric) and nuclear energy were the main proposals for large scale energy production, with supplemental micro-generation, such as solar photo-voltaic panels and domestic wind turbines. Community-based systems were also favoured, including geothermal, local wind farm and biomass power generation. A proposal to hook up a generator to the local gym was suggested as a way of delivering energy to the community whilst keeping fit! KEY POINT: Interruptions to power supplies are of particular concern.

13. 6. Views About Settlement Risk Factors Individual houses, villages, towns and cities in Wales were considered to be at risk, particularly from inland and coastal flooding. Future living conditions were also considered to be potentially uncomfortable or even dangerous to the elderly or long-term sick, particularly during the summer months. It was foreseen that the issues of 2040 could be met by reasonable adaptation, but more inventive approaches would be needed by 2060. Adaptation Options The young people saw a need to adapt to increasing risk of flooding by maintaining a local supply of sandbags, improving drainage systems, wet-proofing houses, installing valves to stop backflow through drains, raising the level of electrical sockets, and in some cases, raising houses above water levels. In addition to measures for individual dwellings, some discussed the possibility of protecting settlements via flood defence structures or moving entire villages to higher ground. One participant suggested the possibility of developing “houseboat villages”. Among options discussed for adapting to increased temperatures were the painting of houses in light reflective colours, planting trees to provide natural shade and in some circumstances, installing air conditioning systems. KEY POINT: Settlement issues faced in 2040 could be met by existing technology, however, more inventive approaches would be required by 2060.

14. 7. Views About Responsibility Young people were aware of the risks of living in the coastal zone and the need to adapt, but considered that national and local governments had given permission for houses to be built in risk prone areas, so should therefore accept partial responsibility and provide assistance in the form of financial and technical support to assist individuals and communities adapt. Since adaptation to the effects of climate change was seen as a national problem, some young people suggested the establishment of a central fund which could be allocated to local councils to develop practical resources and education programmes. Young People Debating Settlement Options in 2080 KEY POINT: Young people consider that responsibility for adapting to the risks posed by climate change should be shared between individuals, communities and government.

15. 8. Conclusions • Workshops held as part of the Beacons YoCCo project have provided a valuable opportunity to gather views from a broad spectrum of young people in Wales about climate change and adaptation. This document represents a snapshot of those views. In particular: • Young people consider that responsibility for adapting to the risks posed by climate change should be shared between individuals, communities and government • Coastal and inland flooding is considered to be the most significant risk to transport systems in Wales • Interruptions to power supplies are of particular concern • Settlement issues faced in 2040 could be met by existing technology. However, more inventive approaches are likely to be required by 2060. • The young people that participated in workshops were enthusiastic and gave well-considered responses. Interestingly, the responses to “What will you do differently in the future?” did not focus on adaptation options, as intended, but rather focussed on mitigation efforts such as using less energy, recycling, and so on. Additional emphasis needs to be placed on educating and equipping young people to adapt to a changing climate. • It is concluded that young people have a lot to contribute in terms of ideas and practical implementation. It is now up to the Welsh Government to hear their messages and further include them in deciding their future. • KEY POINTS: • - Additional emphasis needs to be placed on educating and equipping young people to adapt to a changing climate • - Young people have a lot to contribute in terms of ideas and practical implementation. It is now up to the Welsh Government to hear, engage and respond to their messages and further include them in deciding their future.

16. For further information please contact: Dr Rhoda Ballinger (BallingerRC@cardiff.ac.uk) Dr Jeanette Reis (ReisJ@cardiff.ac.uk) Tara Thrupp (ThruppT@cardiff.ac.uk) School of Earth & Ocean Sciences, Cardiff University, Main Building, Park Place, Cardiff CF10 3YE. Project website http://www.severnestuary.net/yocco/index.html