1 / 66

Dr. Robert Wisner: Grain Outlook 3/15/06

Dr. Robert Wisner: Grain Outlook 3/15/06. Brazil – mid-Feb. 2006. Dates are approximate. Key Corn Variables for 2006-2010. Fertilizer costs & crop rotations Ethanol trends – very positive Bird flu? China corn exports? Weather: U.S. & World?. Gap: $6.20. May 2006 Soybeans.

blythe
Télécharger la présentation

Dr. Robert Wisner: Grain Outlook 3/15/06

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Dr. Robert Wisner: Grain Outlook 3/15/06

  2. Brazil – mid-Feb. 2006

  3. Dates are approximate

  4. Key Corn Variables for 2006-2010 • Fertilizer costs & crop rotations • Ethanol trends – very positive • Bird flu? • China corn exports? • Weather: U.S. & World?

  5. Gap: $6.20 May 2006 Soybeans

  6. Nov. 2006 Soybeans

  7. May 2006 Corn Gaps: $2.338 & $2.448 (Sept. & Aug. ’05) Offer Contracts

  8. Price Objectives: Gaps: June ’04: $2.665, $2.64, High of $2.69 On June 1, 2004. Offer Contracts December 2006 Corn

  9. Monthly CRB Index

  10. Feed Grain Outlook • Large U.S. supplies • Gradual strength in W. Corn Belt Basis & corn price into planting season • Stronger recovery in drought areas & near ethanol plants • 1.3 billion bushel reserve tempers possible ’06 yield problems • Wheat concerns • Tightening supply in ’08-’10

  11. World Supply Changes Vs. Last Year • Soybeans +6.6% • U.S. +2% • Wheat +1% • Feed Grain -1.0% • U.S. Corn +3%

  12. Monthly Natural Gas Futures

  13. Mar. ’06 Natural Gas Futures 53% drop from high

  14. 13% of U.S. Wheat TX.-Ok.

  15. World stocks down 5% in ‘ 06: USDA

  16. Current & planned Iowa Corn Processing Plants, Normal Iowa corn production, & supplies available to ship out of state Mil. bu. available to ship out of state is from normal production after large carryover stocks have been used – provided corn acreage remains at 2005 level. The market is likely to buy more corn acres In future years.

  17. -171 27 106 86 71 -532 63 -344

  18. ?

  19. Iowa Corn Acres Projected from Non-soy Sources in 2010 • To corn from oats, hay 0.2 Mil. A. • CRP land: 0.8 out of 1.2 mil. A. expire in 2005-09 going to corn/soybean rotation (50% to corn = 0.4 mil. A.) • Yield potential on this land: 80% of state Avg.

  20. Total Iowa Acreage & Crop Rotations: China Imports Corn • Total corn-SB acreage, 2010: • Corn: 16.7 million acres • Soybeans: 6.9 million acres • Iowa crop rotations: • Average in 2001: 48.5% soybeans, 51.5% corn • Average in 2005: 44% soybeans, 56% corn • Projected average by 2010: 29.2% soybeans, 70.8% corn

  21. What Could Alter the Projected Acreage Pattern? • Accelerated Growth in Corn Yields • Some Ethanol Projects Put on Hold (not in sight currently) • More CRP or Hay Acres Going to Corn • Iowa Losing Corn Export Share (What states will make up difference?) • Ethanol production from biomass, sugar, or imports • Plants not operating at full capacity • Reduced Livestock feeding

  22. Cumulative Corn Export Sales 3/02/06 Mil. Bu. • Japan +9% 453 • Africa -11% 140 • Taiwan +25% 124 • Other Asia +34% 134 • W. Hemisphere +8% 424 • Unknown +109% 51 Total +9% 1,276

  23. Potential U.S. DGS demand by 2012 Potential U.S. DGS demand by 20 COF @ 15% of ration 5.30 mil. T. Dairy @ 18% of ration 5.52 mil. T. Hogs @ 10% of ration 4.48 mil. T. Total 15.30 mil.T. Potential production 32.5 Mil. T. Potential production

  24. Soybean Outlook Large U.S. SB crop but < 2004 S. America ’05 crop underestimated? Current good conditions in S. America Projected drop in Brazil/Argent. Soy Acres but ‘06 crop up 330 mil. Bu. Next 4-8 years: more DGS competion Biodiesel Asian Soy Rust & bird flu?

More Related