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GOTV Data

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GOTV Data

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  1. GOTV Data Katie Ellis Community Outreach Group

  2. FOLLOWING THE LAW Elections.neworganizing.com

  3. FOLLOWING THE LAW www.afj.org

  4. Katie Ellis Managing Director Community Outreach Group

  5. In today’s session, you’ll learn how to choose which voters to contact during GOTV (Get Out the Vote), recruit and allocate volunteer efforts, and get your logistics in order.

  6. Introduction • Review of GOTV Strategy • Building Universes • Planning Volunteer Capacity • GOTV Logistics Calculations • Making Adjustments • Wrap Up

  7. Why do we need data? • Strategic Use of Limited Resources • Setting Strategic Goals & Maintaining Accountability • Demonstrating Success & Power

  8. Why do we need data? • Strategic Use of Limited Resources • Setting Strategic Goals & Maintaining Accountability • Demonstrating Success & Power

  9. Time Limited resources People Money

  10. Building our win

  11. Persuasion program

  12. Get out the vote program

  13. Get out the vote program

  14. Some basic terms • GOTV - Get Out The Vote refers to activities organizations and campaigns take in the run up to an election to maximize the number of supporters that turn out to vote. • Universe - The set of voters you will attempt to turn out to vote on election day. • Modeling Scores – A prediction (based on voter file, polling, and commercial data) as to how a voter will behave.

  15. BUILDING your universe

  16. Marrying the grid with van • Key Question: How do we match up our conceptual definitions of universes with actual lists of real people?

  17. Van variables Voter Status Demographics Models Census Data (sometimes) Geographic Contact history Current and old lists

  18. Vote likelihood • What is the best predictor of an individual voting in an upcoming election: • In the 2012 General Election? 2008! • In the 2014 General Election? 2010! • A special election? Uhhh… • Look for other non-regular or low turnout elections • Key factors are competitiveness and similar date • Turnout Models

  19. Vote likelihood in 2012 3/3 Midterms OR 2004 + 2008 + 2010 70 + 2/2 Presidentials OR 1-2/3 Midterms 30 - 70 All other vote histories < 30

  20. Support levels • How do you know who supports your issue or not? • Polling • Organizational Issue or Mission • Supporter level assumptions are trickier than vote history—often many variables.

  21. Choice Support Level in 2012

  22. Support x Turnout = ? All Voters REMOVE Women REMOVE age <35 NARROW t/o 70+ Women REMOVE age <35 REMOVE 60+ NARROW t/o 70+ Age <35, ADD Women 60+ NARROW Turnout 70+ Age <35, ADD Women 60+ NARROW Turnout 30-70 All Voters REMOVE Women REMOVE age< 35 NARROW t/o 30-70 Women REMOVE <35 REMOVE 60-120 NARROW t/o 30-70 Women REMOVE age <35 REMOVE 60+ NARROW t/o<30 All Voters REMOVE Women REMOVE age <35 NARROW t/o <30 Age <35, ADD Women 60+ NARROW Turnout < 30

  23. Add real numbers 456

  24. Calculating volunteers • How long is one canvass shift? • How many doors can one volunteer knock per hour? • How many doors can one volunteer knock per canvass shift? • Do volunteers go out alone or in pairs? • How many shifts are required to knock on 456 doors?

  25. Calculating volunteers • How long is a phonebanking shift? • How many calls can a volunteer make per hour? • How many calls can a volunteer make per shift? • How many shifts are required to make 456 calls?

  26. EdayPhonebank logistics • How many calling shifts are there in a day? • How many phone lines do you need? • How many pizzas should you order?

  27. Gotv program planning • 250,000 doors • How many shifts are required? • 15 organizers • How many shifts per organizer? • 10 days • How many shifts per organizer per day?

  28. Printing logistics • 250,000 doors • How many pages? • 30 pages/minute • How many hours? • 1500 pages/toner cartridge • How many toner cartridges? • $30/toner cartridge • How much money in toner?

  29. Printing logistics • When does all of your data need to be entered?

  30. Printing logistics • When does all of your data need to be entered?

  31. Adjusting capacity • If need 300 volunteers and can only find 100, what’s next? • Find the BEST voters within your targets • Constituency • Turnout likelihood • Party ID • Etc