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FIELD OPS AND GOTV: Where Elections Are Won And Lost

FIELD OPS AND GOTV: Where Elections Are Won And Lost. Justin Snyder JustinSnyderFL@Gmail.com @ JustinSnyderFL. EVERY VOTE COUNTS. 25,000 Ballots Cast 17 Vote Win Margin .00068 %. WHAT IS A FIELD PLAN. Blueprint to Victory

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FIELD OPS AND GOTV: Where Elections Are Won And Lost

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  1. FIELD OPS AND GOTV: Where Elections Are Won And Lost Justin Snyder JustinSnyderFL@Gmail.com @JustinSnyderFL

  2. EVERY VOTE COUNTS • 25,000 Ballots Cast17 Vote Win Margin.00068 %

  3. WHAT IS A FIELD PLAN • Blueprint to Victory • Contains your campaign’s Goals, Strategies, Tactics, Timelines, and Benchmarks to achieve them. • Person to Person Contact • Delivering message to targeted voters • Tactics: Calls, Canvassing, Lit drops, Mail BUILD YOUR GRASSROOTS ARMY!!

  4. Win Number and Vote Goal STEP 1:Project Turnout % Turnout in Last Election(s) X # of Reg Voters STEP 2: Setting Goals Win #: (Proj. Turnout / 2) + 1 Vote Goal: Proj Turnout x.52 STEP 3: WRITE EVERYTHING DOWN.

  5. Targeting Your Resources Why? • Limited People, Money & Time • Getting right message to right voters 3 Ways To Target • Geographically • Voter History / ID • Constituencies

  6. Calculating Goals • Break District Down geographically into regions • Find out each regions win number and vote goal. Region #1 Current Registration: 1624 ‘08 Turnout %: 31% ‘12 Proj Turnout: 503 Win Number: 253 Vote Goal (52%): 262 Region #3 Current Registration: 1897 ‘08 Turnout %: 52% ‘12 Proj Turnout: 966 Win Number: 494 Vote Goal (52%): 513 Region #2 Current Registration: 1603 ‘08 Turnout %: 55% ‘12 Proj Turnout: 882 Win Number: 442 Vote Goal (52%): 458 District Totals: Current Registration: 5124 ‘08 Turnout %: 46.3% ‘12 Proj Turnout: 2371 Win Number: 1187 Vote Goal (52%): 1233

  7. Party Performance Index Percentage of vote our party can expect in typical election. (Based On History Not Reg) How To Calculate PPI: Performance #1 Performance#2 3 = PPI Performnce #3

  8. Where Are Our People? Region #1 ‘12 Projected Turnout: 503 Party Performance Index: 69% Proj Party Turnout: 347 Vote Goal (52%): 262 Voter Difference: 85 Region #3 ‘12 Projected Turnout: 966 Party Performance Index: 48% Proj Party Turnout: 473 Vote Goal (52%): 513 Voter Difference: -39 Region #2 ‘12 Projected Turnout: 882 Party Performance Index: 31% Proj Party Turnout: 273 Vote Goal (52%): 458 Voter Difference: -185 District Totals: ‘12 Projected Turnout: 2371 Party Performance Index: 46.1 Proj Party Turnout: 1094 Vote Goal (52%): 1233 Voter Difference: -139

  9. FIND PERSUADABLE VOTERS Method 2: Compare campaigns w/ same constituents Candidate% of Vote In district Dem Gov 57% Dem State Sen 46% 57%-46% = 11% Persuadable • Method 1: • Look for blowouts to determine base vote • 100% • Dem Base % • - GOP Base % • ____________ • Persuasion Index

  10. CAN WE WIN? Region #1 ’12 Proj. Turnout: 503 Persuasion Index: 18% Proj. Persuadable Voters: 91 Persuasion Share: 23.6% Region #3 ’12 Proj. Turnout: 966 Persuasion Index: 19% Proj. Persuadable Voters: 187 Persuasion Share: 48.8% Formulas: Proj Persuadable Voter: Turnout Proj X Persuasion % Persuasion Share: Regional Per. Voters/ Total District Total: ’12 Proj. Turnout: 2371 Persuasion Index: 16.2% Proj. Persuadable Voters: 384 Persuasion Share: 100% Region #2 ’12 Proj. Turnout: 882 Persuasion Index: 12% Proj. Persuadable Voters: 106 Persuasion Share: 27.6%

  11. TARGETING STRATEGIES Dem Base Precincts -PPI = >65% -ID, Voter Reg, Vol Recruitment GOTV GOP Base Precincts -PPI=> less than 35% -Lowest priority Swing Precincts -PPI> 65% -ID, Persuasion & GOTV

  12. Targeting With Voter History Voter Contact Priorities A- Undcideds likely to vote (ID, Persuasion) B. Supporters Less Likely To Vote (ID, GOTV) C. Undecideds less likely to vote (ID, Persuasion, GOTV) D. Supporters Likely to vote (Base Building)

  13. Targeting Via Constituencies • Look at Candidate and Message • Identify Supporters in Community • Listen! • Build Bases of Supports.

  14. WHAT IS GOTV • GETTING OUT THE VOTE • CULMINATION OF CAMPAIGNS CONVOS • TARGETED- ONLY GETTING OUT SUPPORTERS • NOT A LAST MINUTE DEAL • STARTS 2 WEEKS OUT • START PLANNING 4-5 WEEKS OUT

  15. VOTER CONTACT METHODS • DOORS • PHONES • LIT DROP • DIRECT MAIL

  16. YOUR GOTV UNIVERSE TARGETED UNIVERSE SUPPORTER 1s UNDECIDEDS 2s 3s 4s OPPOSES 5s PERSUASION GOTV UNIVERSE

  17. Calculating Volunteer Shifts Vote Goal: 11,496 Early Vote: 2875 Remaining Voters: 8622 Capacity: 25 GOTV phone contacts/hr 8 GOTV door contacts/ hr 3 hours per shift We Need: 345 vol phone hours (115 vol. shifts) OR 1078 vol door hours ( 360( vol. shifts) or 90 Phone Shifts (6750 voters) + 78 Canvass Shifts (1872)

  18. E-Day • Phones • Doors • Rides To The Polls • Poll Watching

  19. Advice • It’s a marathon. Not a sprint. • Keep Calm and Under React. • Don’t break the law (Seems simple right?) • Don’t be afraid to change your plan • WRITE EVERYTHING DOWN. “Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world. Indeed, it is the only thing that ever has.” -Margaret Mead

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