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Transportation and Emissions in Chile March, 2003

This project explores the impact of transportation on CO2 emissions in Chile and identifies potential strategies to mitigate these emissions. It emphasizes the importance of travel demand, vehicle efficiency, and transportation policies in addressing the challenge of climate change.

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Transportation and Emissions in Chile March, 2003

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  1. Transportation and Emissions in ChileMarch, 2003 Center for Clean Air Policy (CCAP) Cambio Climatico y Desarrollo (CC&D) Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA) International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD)

  2. Introduction • Climate Science Trends • Latest IPCC Findings • Transportation & Climate Change • Chile’s Contribution to CO2 Emissions • Conclusions & Next Steps

  3. Latest IPCC Findings • Global average surface temperature has increased over the 20th century by ~ 1°F. • 1990s warmest decade on record, 1998 warmest yr. • Global avg. sea level rose 4-8” in 20th century. • Present CO2 concentration highest in 20 million years. Rate of increase is unprecedented during at least the past 20,000 years. • “There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.”

  4. Latest IPCC Findings • Average surface temperature is predicted to increase by 2.5 °F - 10.4 °F • The projected warming rate is the highest in at least 10,000 years • The Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has estimated that sea level rise would be 20 cm by 2030 and 1-m by 2100

  5. Transportation & Climate Change • Key factors • Travel activity (VMT, ton-miles) • Mode split • Vehicle energy intensity (mpg, loading) • Fuel carbon content (lifecycle) • In Chile, the transportation sector represents largest source of man-made GHG emissions - approximately 28%

  6. Background • Pew Center for Global Climate Change: Transport GHG emissions in Chile could increase by 117% in the ‘business-as-usual’ (BAU) scenario (2000-2020) versus 42% in the low emissions scenario (LES) • BAU = no strong actions to curb GHG emissions • LES = policies to improve public transportation and introduce cleaner, more efficient vehicles

  7. Passenger Travel by Mode • In Greater Santiago, between 1977 and 1991, car trips increased by ~6% while bus trips declined by ~18% • 1 in 10 people in Santiago, now own cars • Passenger transportation accounts for about 2/3 of transportation sector GHG emissions

  8. Chile’s CO2 Emissions by Mode (2000)

  9. Emissions from Passenger Cars

  10. Conclusions This project, with its emphasis on mitigating CO2 from the transportation sector, can: • Quantify the potential CO2 benefit of travel demand, vehicle efficiency and other transportation policies • Set a precedent for the role transportation projects must play in addressing the challenge of climate change

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