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TEAC25 2003 Marginal Emissions Analysis

TEAC25 2003 Marginal Emissions Analysis. Scott Hodgdon ISO New England January 19, 2005. What is the MEA?.

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TEAC25 2003 Marginal Emissions Analysis

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  1. TEAC252003 Marginal Emissions Analysis Scott Hodgdon ISO New England January 19, 2005

  2. What is the MEA? • The Marginal Emissions Analysis (MEA) is an analysis of the impact that Demand Side Management (DSM) programs have had on NEPOOL Aggregate SO2, NOX, and CO2 generating unit emission • The MEA is developed by ISO-NE for New England Power Pool’s (NEPOOL) Environmental Planning Committee (EPC)

  3. MEA Background • Originally done to support applications for obtaining Massachusetts NOX Emission Reduction Credits (ERCs) resulting from impacts from Demand Side Management (DSM) programs • Such applications were filed under the Mass. ERC banking & trading program effective January 1, 1994, for inventoried sources of NOX, VOCs and CO2 • NEPOOL MEA has been performed annually since 1993

  4. MEA Data and Model Overview Simulation Model Output Results Input Data Hourly Loads Generator Data Fuel Prices Unit MWh production as output from program used to calculate indices reported in MEA IREMM* * Inter Regional Electric Market Model used for the 2003 MEA. In previous years, Henwood Energy Services Inc.’s Prosym Model was used.

  5. Input Data • Discrete generator seasonal capacity ratings • Some generation modeled as limited energy units: • All hydro facilities • Discrete generator maintenance & forced outages • Actual historical hourly loads for NEPOOL system (1 Control Area) • Pumped storage pumping loads included in hourly loads

  6. Input Data (Cont’) • All dispatchable units operated in accordance to system economics (merit order) • 2003 New England historical fuel prices (Source: EIA) • Unit specific 2003 generating unit emission rates: • As reported to US EPA Acid Rain Division (Scorecard captures about 75% of emissions) • US EPA’s E-Grid 2002 Ver 2.0 or typical default rates

  7. Modeling • Used IREMM model for chronological simulation of New England’s energy market • IREMM models short-run marginal cost methodology (no bids) • One bus modeling – Effect of real-time transmission constraints are captured in the historical generation patterns • Annual generation matched within 25% of actual history for all major dispatchable units.

  8. Modeling (Cont’) • 2 Cases Run • Reference Case • Marginal Case • Reference Case • Replicate, as close as possible, annual historical system operations • Marginal Case • Increase all hourly loads by 500 MW and re-run reference case • Represents how system may have run without DSM programs • Assumed in all MEA (1993-2003) in order to have a consistent baseline

  9. Use of Output Results • Calculate Marginal Emission Rates(Lbs/MWh and Lbs/Mbtu) • Annual • On- and Off-Peak for Ozone and Non-Ozone time periods • By SMD Load Zone • Calculate Marginal Heat Rate (Mbtu/MWh) • Calculate Annual Average Emission Rates (Lbs/MWh and Lbs/Mbtu)

  10. (Marginal Case Emissions – Reference Case Emissions) (Marginal Case MWh – Reference Case MWh) Calculating Marginal Emission Rates • Using the results of the Reference and Marginal Cases: • Calculated for SO2, NOX, and CO2 in Lbs/MWh and Lbs/Mbtu

  11. (Marginal Case Fuel Consumption – Reference Fuel Consumption) (Marginal Case MWh – Reference Case MWh) Calculating Marginal Heat Rate • Using the results of the Reference and Marginal Cases: • Results in Mbtu/MWh • Value used to convert emission rates in Lbs/MWh to Lbs/Mbtu

  12. (Reference Case Emissions) (Reference Case MWh) Calculating Annual Average Emission Rates • Using the Reference Case Results: • Calculated for SO2, NOX, and CO2 • Based on modeling results

  13. 2003 MEA Results

  14. Calculated Marginal Emission Rates – SO2

  15. Calculated Marginal Emission Rates – NOX

  16. Calculated Marginal Emission Rates – CO2

  17. Calculated Average Heat Rate • NEPOOL Marginal Heat Rates: MBtu/MWH • 1999 = 10.013 • 2000 = 9.279 • 2001 = 9.610 • 2002 = 8.660 • 2003 = 8.250

  18. Calculated Average Emission Rates • Annual Average Emission Rates (Lbs/MWh)

  19. Obtaining the MEA Report • Copies of the 1998 – 2003 MEA Reports are located on the ISO-NE website at: http://www.iso-ne.com/Planning_Reports/Emissions/ • For copies of the 1993 – 1997 MEA Reports, please call ISO-NE Customer Service

  20. QUESTIONS?

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