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Grain and Oilseed Outlook

Grain and Oilseed Outlook. Omaha Ag Outlook Omaha, Nebraska Dec. 7, 2013 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911. U.S. Corn Supply and Use. Source: USDA-WAOB. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use. Source: USDA-WAOB. Projected Corn Yields.

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Grain and Oilseed Outlook

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  1. Grain and Oilseed Outlook Omaha Ag Outlook Omaha, Nebraska Dec. 7, 2013 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

  2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB

  3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB

  4. Projected Corn Yields Top: 2013 Projected Yield Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS

  5. Projected Soybean Yields Top: 2013 Projected Yield Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS

  6. World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  7. World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  8. U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB

  9. Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

  10. Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

  11. Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

  12. Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

  13. Corn Grind for Ethanol

  14. Source: DOE-EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

  15. Current Corn Futures 4.39 4.28 4.17 Source: CME Group, 12/4/2013

  16. Current Soybean Futures 12.42 11.01 10.86 Source: CME Group, 12/4/2013

  17. Corn Prices vs. Costs Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Actual Yield per Acre Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs

  18. Soybean Prices vs. Costs Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Actual Yield per Acre Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs

  19. Crop Acreage Source: USDA-NASS

  20. Crop Shifts Source: USDA-NASS

  21. Thoughts for 2014 and Beyond • Supply/demand concerns • Corn demand rebounding? Yes, so far, so good • Acreage allocation for 2014: Where do the extra corn acres go? • Markets favoring soybeans in the short term and corn longer term

  22. World Corn Markets Source: USDA

  23. Arable Land

  24. Thank you for your time!Any questions?My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/

  25. U.S. Wheat Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB

  26. Winter Wheat Acreage Source: USDA-NASS

  27. Winter Wheat Production Top: 2013 Projected Production Bottom: % Change from last year Units: Million bushels Source: USDA-NASS

  28. Durum Wheat Production Top: 2013 Projected Production Bottom: % Change from last year Units: Million bushels Source: USDA-NASS

  29. Other Spring Wheat Production Top: 2013 Projected Production Bottom: % Change from last year Units: Million bushels Source: USDA-NASS

  30. National Wheat Projections

  31. National Wheat Projections

  32. World Wheat Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  33. Wheat Export Pace Source: USDA-FAS

  34. Wheat Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

  35. Current Wheat Futures 6.86 6.54 6.45 Source: CME Group, 12/6/2013

  36. Iowa Crop Shifts Source: USDA-NASS

  37. Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)

  38. Liquid Fuel Usage Source: DOE-EIA

  39. Corn Prices vs. Costs

  40. Carry vs. Costs Carry shows the additional revenue that can be obtained from holding on to the crop But there are costs to holding on: storage interest/opportunity costs These are known as the cost of ownership

  41. Why Crops Fail

  42. Building a Marketing Plan 5 basic steps: • Estimate number of bushels/animals to sell • Calculate breakeven price • Project price and production scenarios • Compare pricing tools and analyze market opportunities • Develop a pricing plan

  43. Marketing Types • Harvest • Averaging • Price Target • Time and Price • Extended Time and Price

  44. Average Price Captured

  45. Lowest Average

  46. Highest Average

  47. Longer History

  48. Source: USDA

  49. Iowa Land Values Source: Mike Duffy, ISU

  50. Iowa Land Values – Log Scale Source: Mike Duffy, ISU

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