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Grain Outlook For 2004-05

Grain Outlook For 2004-05. 3/12/2004. Dr. Robert Wisner Iowa State University. Grain Outlook, 2003-04. 3/10/04. Near-Record Low world grain stocks Foreign weather--bad last 2 years China? World soy stocks: 9% below 2003, 11% above 2002, 17% above 2001—USDA

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Grain Outlook For 2004-05

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  1. Grain Outlook For 2004-05 3/12/2004 Dr. Robert Wisner Iowa State University

  2. Grain Outlook, 2003-04 3/10/04 • Near-Record Low world grain stocks • Foreign weather--bad last 2 years • China? • World soy stocks: 9% below 2003, 11% above 2002, 17% above 2001—USDA • Soy exports rationed, but not crush • U.S. soy: record low stocks/use? • U.S. corn/soy yield ratio & ‘04 plantings? • Strong corn domestic & export demand • Market tops probably not be in yet

  3. Asian Bird Flu Map From BBC News 65 million birds destroyed?

  4. 3/10/04

  5. Cumulative Export Sales, 2003-04 vs. Yr. Ago3/04/04 % Chg.Proj. % Chg. • Corn +28 +26 • Soybeans* -09 -15 • Soybean meal -23-29 • Soybean oil -66-62 • All Wheat +43 +32 • Grain Sorghum +14 +06 • * China up 13% from Y/A.

  6. China Corn, USDA Export Projections vs. actualProjections too low, except for 1998 OctoberMarch • 2002-03 38% 21% below actual • 2001-02 55% 65% below actual • 2000-01 45% 18% below actual • 1999-00 50% 20% below actual • 1998-99 17% 17% above actual • 1997-98 58% 17% below actual • 1996-97 87% 74% below actual

  7. For discussion of Soybean yield problems, see: http://www.biotech-info.net/first_generation_GMC.pdf

  8. May 04 corn

  9. Locations of Under-Construction Ethanol Plants, March 2004 Source: Renewable Fuels Assoc . Annual Mil. Bu. Ann. Mil. Bu. Corn Use Corn Use West Burlington, IA , 16 • Ashton, IA 18 • Hopkinsville, KY 8 • Steam Boat Rock, IA 8 • Lexington, NE 16.8 • Hudson, SD 18 • Mason City, IA 16 • Friesland, WI 16 • Hanlontown, IA 18 • Total 182.8 Palestine, IL 16 • Malta Bend, MO 16 • Iowa Falls, IA 16 •

  10. Extreme right = 55 m.t. Brazil crop

  11. Yield trend: +0.6bu/A./Yr.

  12. Yield trend: +0.56 bu./A./Yr.

  13. May 04 Soybeans

  14. Cumulative Export Sales, 2003-04 vs. Yr. Ago3/04/04 % Chg.Proj. % Chg. • HRW wheat +82 +26 • SRW wheat +41 -15 • HRS wheat* +4 -29 • White wheat +45 -62 • Durum wheat +36 • All Wheat +43 +32 • Wheat prod. +55 +06 • *China 176 mil. Bu. HRS, 26 m.b. SRW, 7 WW

  15. Chicago May Wheat

  16. Occurred 79% of time

  17. Excluding 1995-96

  18. Key Points • Very Low world grain reserve • Global soybean supplies more adequate -- if S. America crop holds at USDA 3/10/04 • Soybeans: exports rationed, but not crush—strong basis & higher prices to cut margins • Corn export sales recently slowing • Ethanol expansion to continue strong, limiting future export growth potential • Corn, wheat, soybean & product prices explosive if major weather problems • Some downside risk in late spring, summer

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