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Sea Level Rise an unambiguous consequence of a warming climate

Sea Level Rise an unambiguous consequence of a warming climate. Lee-Lueng Fu. addition of heat. addition of freshwater. Causes of Sea Level Rise. Total sea level rise. +. =. Present day sea level rise = 1/3 thermal expansion + 1/3 melting of mountain glaciers +

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Sea Level Rise an unambiguous consequence of a warming climate

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  1. Sea Level Risean unambiguous consequence of a warming climate Lee-Lueng Fu

  2. addition of heat addition of freshwater Causes of Sea Level Rise Total sea level rise + = Present day sea level rise = 1/3 thermal expansion + 1/3 melting of mountain glaciers + 1/3 melting of ice on Greenland and Antarctica

  3. ~ 2.0 mm/yr ~ 0.25 mm/yr 120 years 9000 years Historic Sea Level Rise Recent rates of sea level rise are 10 times larger than historic rates. 1 cm/yr Plots by Robert A. Rohde for Global Warming Art: http://www.globalwarmingart.com/

  4. Sea Level Rise: a present and imminent impact of climate change 3.2 mm/year 2.0 mm/year ~ 8 inches (20 cm) 0.8 mm/year Average Rate ~ 1.8 mm/year [Church and White, 2006]

  5. Satellite Observations

  6. Global Mean Contribution from Thermal Expansion 48 mm 16 mm

  7. Earth Surface Mass Change Measured From Satellites (2002-2009) [Wahr, 2009]

  8. Greenland Mass Change April, 2002 – February, 2009 Total Greenland ice volume Rate of mass change: -235 Gton/yr -235 Gton/yr = 0.65 mm/yr sea level rise [Wahr, 2009]

  9. Antarctica Mass Change April, 2002 – February, 2009 All Antarctica: -169 Gton/yr -169 Gton/yr = 0.47 mm/yr sea level rise [Wahr, 2009]

  10. Projection of future sea level A conservative estimate without considering the instability of the polar ice sheets Rahmstorf, 2007

  11. The last time the Arctic was 3 to 5°C warmer than present, global sea level was 4 to 6 meters higher than present Today 125,000 years ago Image from Bette Otto-Bliesner, National Center for Atmospheric Research

  12. Sea level change after melting of ice from the Western Antarctic Ice Sheet A global average of 3.2 m, but the highest is around the US Bamber et al, 2009

  13. Coastal Impacts 40% of the world’s population lives within 100 km of the coast!

  14. Grand challenges for climate science and civil engineering in the coming decades: • Prediction of the rise of sea level and its spatial patterns • Development of adaption approach (world-wide change of coastlines; coastal urban planning/relocation, coastal resources management, etc)

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