Visualizing Sea Level Rise: Exploring Sea Level Rise with FieldScope

1. Visualizing Sea Level Rise:Exploring Sea Level Rise with FieldScope A University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science Appalachian Lab and National Geographic Society project in collaboration with NOAA BWET program, MD Department of Natural Resources, DE and MD National Estuarine Research Reserve, and University of Virginia Blandy Experimental Farm

2. Decrease in sea ice – decrease in plankton – decrease in krill- decrease in penguins, albatrosses, seals & whales.

3. MEES 698Y Science for Environment Management Spring 2013

4. Bringing the contributions to sea-level rise together MADE CLEAR Climate Science Academy 2013

5. Sea-level rise will not stop in 2100 stabilizing at 2ºC ending all emissions in 2016 Schaeffer et al. 2012 Nature Climate Change 2: 867. MADE CLEAR Climate Science Academy 2013

6. Multiple implications of sea-level rise Inundation & shoreline erosion Increase base of storm surge Overwhelming ability of tidal wetlands to aggrade & migrate Salt-water intrusion in estuaries Salinization of ag. soils Salinization of ground water Social demand for protection & resistance to adaptation MADE CLEAR Climate Science Academy 2013

8. Lesson 1 – Current SLR NOAA Sea Level Online Website: http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends.shtml

9. Lesson 1 – Predicted SLR

10. Ocean Expansion (0-700m of depth) Oceans are Warming: Expanding & Melting ice What makes sea level change? Is Greenland’s Ice Sheets Changing Now? Atmosphere is warming: Melting polar Ice Is Antarctica’s Ice Sheets Changing Now? Warm Water Expands in the ocean How Fast Can Sea Level Change? Melting polar Ice from warm ocean and air is adding to theocean http://www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel/sl_drives_longer.html How Much Ice Is There At the Poles? RECORD: HOW MUCH HAS THE OCEAN WARMED & EXPANDED 1960-2007? Is There A Critical Tipping Point? Does Melting Sea Ice Contribute to Sea Level? What Can I Do? *Thermosteric is change in sea surface heightfrom expansion/contraction from temperature change EXPLORING SEA LEVEL RISE

11. Oceans are Warming: Expanding & Melting ice What makes sea level change? Is Greenland’s Ice Sheets Changing Now? Atmosphere is warming: Melting polar Ice Is Antarctica’s Ice Sheets Changing Now? MELTWATER CONTRIBUTION TO SEA LEVEL Warm Water Expands in the ocean How Fast Can Sea Level Change? Melting polar Ice from warm ocean and air is adding to theocean How Much Ice Is There At the Poles? Is There A Critical Tipping Point? Does Melting Sea Ice Contribute to Sea Level? Glaciers and Ice cap meltwater contribution areas, from Jacob et al Nature paper, 2012 HOW MUCH MORE WATER IS IN THE OCEAN FROM MELTING POLAR GLACIERS? What Can I Do? ‘Science Fact’: Melting ice from the Earth’s glaciers adds to the oceans causing sea level to rise. EXPLORING SEA LEVEL RISE

12. YEARLY POLAR MELTWATER CONTRIBUTIONS TO SEA LEVEL Oceans are Warming: Expanding & Melting ice What makes sea level change? Is Greenland’s Ice Sheets Changing Now? Cumulative SLR (mm) Atmosphere is warming: Melting polar Ice Is Antarctica’s Ice Sheets Changing Now? Warm Water Expands in the ocean How Fast Can Sea Level Change? Melting polar Ice from warm ocean and air is adding to theocean How Much Ice Is There At the Poles? Is There A Critical Tipping Point? 1989-2009 Does Melting Sea Ice Contribute to Sea Level? Sea level rise contributions from the Ice Sheets. Antarctica (AIS-blue). Greenland (GrIS-green). Red is the sum. Dashed lines outline uncertainty. What Can I Do? http://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs10712-011-9137-z.pdf EXPLORING SEA LEVEL RISE RECORD: HOW MUCH WATER IS BEING ADDED TO THE OCEANS FROM POLAR GLACIERS?

13. For every degree the climate warms, we are likely to lock in at least 6 feet of sea level rise—obviously that happens over time, as the melting global ice sheets that will contribute most to the rising oceans are somewhat delayed in responding.  • Looking at a 4˚ C rise in temperature, something which increasingly looks certain (due to collective inaction to constrain greenhouse gas emissions and a far too-slow effort to transition off fossil fuels), the study found that, over the next two millennia, the melting Antarctic ice sheet will contribute 50 percent of the sea level's rise, melting Greenland will contribute 25 percent, thermal expansion of the oceans contributes 20 percent and melting glaciers account for the remaining 5 percent. • Previous research, also coming from the Potsdam Institute, found that if temperatures rise continues past 2˚ C, there's a greater than 50 percent chance that the Greenland ice sheet will melt, causing over 20 feet of sea level rise, over the next 300-1,000 years.  • Melting in Antarctica contributes less than 10 percent to sea level rise today. The seemingly low amount that glaciers will contribute can be attributed to the study's long-term view of sea level rise – by the time Antarctica is contributing to the sea, half of the world's glaciers will have already melted back to their minimum level. 

14. Do a little math… 1.1M = 1100mm 1100 mm / 108 (back to 1992) years = 10.1851852 mm/yr