Socio-Economic Benefits Assessment on Weather Service in China

1. 1 预警信息发布 Socio-Economic Benefits Assessment on Weather Service in China Dr. LV Minghui • Meeting of The WMO Forum: Social and Economic Applications and Benefits of Weather, Climate and Water Services, 8-11 April 2013 China Meteorological Administration Public Meteorological Service centre

2. 1. Introduction 2. Benefits of public weather service 3. Benefits of weather service for specific sectors 4. Weather service benefit in disaster prevention and mitigation 5. Conclusion Contents

3. 1 Introduction • Various Meteorological Disasters in China • 34 million hectares farming land are hit by meteorological disasters per year. • 600 million people afflicted by severe meteorological disasters, including droughts, rainstorms, floods and tropical cyclones. • Benefits of Weather, Climate and Water Services in China • the average annual death toll of meteorological disasters has decreased from about 4,500 people in the 1990’s to about 2,500 people in the 21st century. • the economic losses caused by meteorological disasters to GDP has decreased from 3%~6% in the 1980’s to today’s 1%~3%.

4. 2 Benefits of public weather service （1） • The public can access public weather service by various media and communication meas. China has established modern platforms for information release. • Example： • The public’s expectation of public weather service during 2008 Beijing Olympics was fully satisfied. • China Meteorological Administration enjoyed the best popularity of 27 state-level government bodies under the survey of public image conducted by Annual Report on Science Communication of China (2010-2011) and ranked second in terms of reputation, which also showed to some extent the public’s positive opinion on meteorological department and its work.

5. 2 Benefits of public weather service （2） • Benefits assessment of public weather service • Survey data of Satisfaction of Public Weather Service in China from 2009 to 2012

6. 2 Benefits of public weather service （3） • Based on the above surveys, meteorological department shall enhance the forecast accuracy and the construction of information release channels, launch public projects for meteorological knowledge popularization, and improve weather service products and the service quality, so as to provide better weather service for the public. Satisfaction Evaluation of Weather Forecast Accuracy, 2010-2012

7. 3 Benefits of weather service for specific sectors （1） • The specialized weather service well demonstrates meteorology’s value and significance as a production factor. • The most common method adopted for benefits evaluation of specialized weather service is Delphi method.

8. 3 Benefits of weather service for specific sectors （2） • Benefits assessment on weather service in road transportation. Distribution of main superhighway-sensitive weather elements in seven provinces Economic Returns of Weather Service in Superhighway in 10 Provinces, 2009

9. 3 Benefits of weather service for specific sectors （3） In 2011, for further work assessment project for weather service benefits in road transportation. • the contribution of weather service in road transportation was 1.09% and the economic returns at about 6.1 billion yuan. • weather service contributed most in road transportation and operation, with contributions of 1.14% and 1.13% respectively, followed by emergency aids at 1.11%. Weather service contributed comparatively low in road maintenance and construction, with the contributions at only 1.07% and 1.02% respectively. Contribution ratios of meteorological services on provincial superhighways in 2011.

10. 3 Benefits of weather service for specific sectors （4） • Benefits assessment on weather service in tourism. Economic Returns of Weather Service in Tourism in 13 Provinces, 2010 Major Sensitive Weather Elements, Critical Values and Valid Forecast Period in Tourist Industry

11. 3 Benefits of weather service for specific sectors （5） • Benefits assessment on weather service in electric power & wind power sectors. Economic Returns of Weather Service in Electric Power in 18 Provinces, 2010 Major Sensitive Weather Elements, Critical Values and Valid Forecast Period in Electric Power Sector

12. 3 Benefits of weather service for specific sectors（6） In 2011, for further work assessment project for weather service benefits in wind power. • According to the assessment, the contribution of weather service in wind power sector was 1.85%, with the economic returns estimated at 885 million yuan. • The contributions of weather service in distribution of wind-generated electricity, planning of wind power programs, drought fan maintenance and construction of wind farms were all higher than 1.85%. Weather service contributed least in the wind power generation at 1.62%. Major Sensitive Weather Elements, Critical Values and Valid Forecast Period in Wind Power Sector

13. 4 benefit in disaster prevention and mitigation（1） • Weather service system for agriculture and meteorological disaster prevention system in rural areas. • Mechanism： • “under government’s guidance, linked up between departments and supported by all the members of society”. • Example： • No.11 severe typhoon named “Haikui” (“Sea Anemone”) struck land in Zhejiang Province in 2012, leaving 7,001,000 people affected, 1,546,000 people of whom were moved away from the afflicted areas. Not a single person died .

14. 4 Benefit in disaster prevention and mitigation （2） • Benefit assessment on weather monitoring and early warning for geological hazard prevention and control. Benefit assessment on weather monitoring and early warning for geological hazard prevention and control, 2012 Degree of Satisfaction in different groups Indexes for weather monitoring and early warning for geological hazard prevention and control

15. 4 Benefit in disaster prevention and mitigation （3） • The significant role of weathermen in disaster prevention and mitigation There are now nearly 500,000 weathermen working in rural areas in China. The network of weather early warning information has been expanded to more counties and villages. Attention to meteorological disasters from weathermen Measures taken by weathermen in disasters, 2011

16. 5 Conclusion • Benefit assessment on weather service is an interdisciplinary issue. Therefore, more efforts shall be put into theoretical and methodological studies, with new assessment modes introduced, assessment content enriched and practicability of assessment enhanced, to improve benefit assessment on weather service. • Through the assessment projects we have conducted for the benefit of weather service, we see both visible economic returns and other invisible benefits, such as social and humanitarian benefits and even positive influence on people’s psyche. • Much of what we’ve done is still in an initial stage of qualitative assessment, which cannot fully demonstrate all the benefits weather service can generate. As weather service gets improving, it will bring more benefits for social and economic development.

17. Thank you!