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Chapter 3

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Chapter 3

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  1. Chapter 3 Key Issue 3 Why is population increasing at different rates in different countries?

  2. Demographic Transition Model • All countries have experienced some changes in natural increase, fertility, and morality rates at different times and at different rates. • Although rates vary among countries, a similar process of change is operating • Because of local cultural and economic conditions, the demographic transition diffuses to individual countries at different rates

  3. Demographic Transition Model • Stage 1: Low Growth • HIGH BIRTH and DEATH rates • Most of Humanity’s occupancy on earth • People depended on Hunting/Gathering • Food supplies were unpredictable • War • Disease- no modern medicine • Pre- Industrial Revolution • NO COUNTRY STILL IN STAGE ONE!!!!

  4. Stage 2: High Growth • Death rate drops, Birth Rate stays high • Occurred in most countries during 18th and 19th centuries, during the Industrial Revolution. • Improved sanitation/hygiene • Improved medical practices • More food available/ new technology • CBR high, NIR high = rapid growth • MDC’s went through stage 2 by 1800’s • LDC’s didn’t start in stage 2 until 1950’s • Thanks to medical revolution • Several periphery nations still in Stage 2

  5. Stage 3: Moderate Growth • Birth rate begins to drop, death rate low • Pop still grows because CBR still higher than CDR • NIR slows • MDC’s moved into stage 3 in early 1900’s • Most Asian and Latin American countries today • Sudden drop of birth rates due to changes in social customs • Economic changes • Urban societies

  6. Stage 4: Low Growth • Reaches stage when zero population growth is achieved. • BR=DR • NIR = 0 • Called zero population growth (ZPG) • below replacement level • Mainly Europe and United States • Changes in lifestyle encourage small families • Countries that have NEGATIVE growth: • Russia and other Eastern European Countries • Cause: Communist Rule

  7. 5th stage? • Not identified yet • Characterized by higher CDR than CBR • Irreversible population decline • Japan? • Italy? • Russia?

  8. ENGLAND EXAMPLE • Stage 1 • Pre-1750 • Norman invasion 1066 • Population = 1 million • Black death • Famines/ bad harvests • Stage 2 • 1750: CBR and CDR -40 • By 1800: CBR 34, CDR 20 • Industrial Revolution • NIR 1.4% , pop increased from 6- 30 mill • Stage 3 • After 1880 • CBR declined sharply • Between 1880- 1970 pop only increased .7 % per year • Stage 4 • Since 1970s • CBR/ CDR even • TFR below replacement levels

  9. EXAMPLES Cape Verde: Chile: Stage 3 Denmark stage 2 stage 4

  10. WHY ISN”T EVERY COUNTRY AT STAGE 4???? • Demographic change • Sudden decline in CDR • Core nations: • Industrialization led to wealth • Wealth led to scientific innovations • Semi/ Periphery nations: • Diffusion of scientific and technological innovations • All have accepted technology (vaccines, medications, etc.) • BUT….not all countries have “changed” social customs

  11. Demographic Transition and World Population Growth • Huge population explosion during 2nd ½ of 20th century • No country in stage 1, few in stage 4 • Causes • Drop in DR b/c of technology • Drop in BR b/c of change in social custom

  12. Population Pyramids • A population pyramid is a bar graph that displays age and gender of a population • Males on left, females on right • 5 year age groups • Shape determined by CBR • Demographic transition gives a country a distinctive population structure • Influenced by: • % of Population in each age group • Distribution of Male and Females

  13. Age Distribution • Most important factor is dependency ratio: • # of people too old or young to work compared to the # of people in their productive years • Three age groups: • - 0 – 14 • - 15 – 64 • - 65 + • ½ of all people in stage 2 countries (LDCs/ Periphery) are dependent • Mainly young • 1/3 of all people in MDC’s (Core) are dependent • Mainly old

  14. Problems • The large amount of Children in Africa strain resources • “graying” populations of U.S. and Europe are burdens on the government

  15. Sex Ratio • # of males per hundred Females • Stage 2 countries have low % of women due to childbirth deaths

  16. Population Pyramids • Allows demographers to identify changes • Population cohorts • Group of individuals who share a common temporal demographic experience • Example: • Deficit of births after a war

  17. Population Pyramid Practice