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Summary of EPA Region 4 Modeling Activities EPA Region 4 Spring Grants/Planning Meeting

This summary provides an overview of the modeling activities conducted by EPA Region 4, including PSD permit modeling, SO2 attainment demonstration and redesignation SIPs, DRR SO2 on-going verification, and regional haze modeling.

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Summary of EPA Region 4 Modeling Activities EPA Region 4 Spring Grants/Planning Meeting

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  1. Summary of EPA Region 4 Modeling Activities • EPA Region 4 Spring Grants/Planning Meeting May 21-23, 2019

  2. Stan 2.0 Region 4 Modeling Team • Stan 2.0 (Virtual Stan) • Mike Moeller (Half-time modeling, half-time monitoring) • Katie Walther • Chris Howard • Richard Monteith • Rick Gillam • Katy Lusky (honorary modeler – senior technical advisor) • Todd Rinck (Supervisor)

  3. FY 2018/2019 Significant Modeling Activities • PSD Permit Applications and Modeling Protocols • SO2 Attainment Demonstration and Re-designation SIPs • DRR SO2 On-Going Verification Annual Reports and Transport iSIPs • Regional Haze Modeling • Held Region 4 State & Local Modeling Workshop in September 2018 • Attended 2019 EPA Regions, States and Locals Modelers Workshop in Seattle, Washington from May 6-9, 2019 • Thank You for allowing your modeling staff to attend these beneficial workshops!

  4. PSD/NSR Permit Modeling • Reviewed and Commented on 16 PSD Permit Applications and 6 PSD Modeling Protocols in FY 2018 • Reviewed 19 PSD Permit Application Modeling Projects so far in FY 2019 • Reviewed 6 PSD Modeling Protocols reviewed so far in FY 2019 • Outlook is for continued high volume of PSD modeling activity • Issues and Questions: • Single-source secondary ozone and PM2.5 analyses (MERPs Guidance) • Challenging to apply MERPs for Class I area increment SILs assessment • GA, TN and KY developed state-specific MERPs Guidance documents • Modeling “Nearby Sources” with “typical operations” - Revisions to Table 8.1 and 8.2 in Appendix W • Additional guidance on “significant concentration gradient” and determination of sources to explicitly model in cumulative modeling analyses is needed

  5. Challenges Applying MERPs for Class I Increment Assessments • Example: 24-hr PM2.5 Class I SIL = 0.27 ug/m3 vs. Class II SIL = 1.2 ug/m3 • If conservative “first-cut” MERPs approach is used, then may exceed the Class I SIL in many cases • Region 4 Modeling Staff have worked with OAQPS to develop a more refined procedure using the results of the photochemical modeling done to establish the MERPs • Region 4 Modeling Staff are available to assist and provide the data needed to apply this refined methodology

  6. SO2 Attainment Demonstration and Redesignation SIPs • Round 1 Attainment Demonstration SIPs • Jefferson County, Kentucky • Final approval action nearing completion – May 2019 • Sullivan County, Tennessee (Eastman Chemical Company) • Newly deployed monitors showing exceedances of the NAAQS – Eastman evaluating additional controls • Redesignation SIPs • 2 Round 1 Areas in Florida (Hillsborough and Nassau Counties) • Nassau County Redesignation Approved in April 2019 • Hillsborough County Approval under final review • Round 3 Hillsborough-Polk NAA • Controls will be installed by August 2019 – draft Redesignation FR and TSD in development • Plan to finalize in Sept 2019 after permit limits are effective and controls are in place.

  7. DRR SO2 On-Going Verification and Transport iSIPs • DRR Ongoing Verification • Annual reports due by July 1, 2019, for areas designation A/U in Round 3 Designations • 33 Areas in Region 4 have reports due • Georgia, Kentucky, and Florida have submitted draft reports • EPA Region 4 reviewed submittals and provided comments • Georgia requested termination of reporting requirement for 2 areas • Provided modeling for both areas showing max modeled values below 50% of the NAAQS using recent emissions • Region 4 reviewed modeling and has approved termination for both areas • Approval consists of a letter signed by the RA accompanied by a brief TSD • Florida and South Carolina also interested terminating annual reporting requirement for 1 area in each state • SO2 Transport iSIPs • Assisting SIP Regulatory staff when submittals involve modeling • NC performed additional modeling for a Round 4 source located within 50 km of border • TN performed additional modeling for similar sources

  8. Regional Haze Modeling • Working with Mississippi to re-evaluate BART Modeling (sources that originally relied on “CAIR/CSAPR better than BART” • 2nd Round of Regional Haze SIPs • Reviewed and approved VISTAS Modeling QAPP • Reviewed and provided comments on Modeling Protocol (CAMx) • Available to work with VISTAS to review modeling results and assist states as they prepare their Round 2 Regional Haze SIPs

  9. Questions? Contact: Rick Gillam Air Data and Analysis Section EPA Region 4 404.562.9049 gillam.rick@epa.gov

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