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Risk Factor Analysis - A New Qualitative Risk Management Tool. PMI Connections 2000 Project Management Institute Seminar & Symposium September 12, 2000 - Houston, TX John Kindinger Probabilistic Risk and Hazard Analysis Group (TSA-11) Los Alamos National Laboratory
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Risk Factor Analysis - A New Qualitative Risk Management Tool PMI Connections 2000 Project Management Institute Seminar & Symposium September 12, 2000 - Houston, TX John Kindinger Probabilistic Risk and Hazard Analysis Group (TSA-11) Los Alamos National Laboratory LA-UR 00-3444 Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited
Presentation Topics • Background and Objectives for Risk Factor Analysis (RFA) • General Approach for Performing RFA • Example RFA Results • Integration of RFA with Quantitative Risk Analysis
Objectives for the Development of RFA • Capable of evaluating technical risks in conceptual design, before schedule & cost baselines are available • Easy to perform and adaptable to different projects & programs • Systematic, objective and sufficiently comprehensive to produce meaningful specific insights • Useable to support quantitative risk analysis
Tasks for Risk Factor Analysis • List activities, tasks or other elements that make up the project • Identify the applicable risk factors • Develop risk-ranking criteria for each risk factor • Evaluate each activity and rank risk for each risk factor • Sum results across risk factors for each activity
Activity Identification • Follow the logical progression of tasks or process steps being used by the project team • Define tasks at the level of detail needed to reveal unique risk issues and important dependencies between tasks • Document results with a simple flow chart
Identifying Risk Factors • Risk factors are the drivers that will ultimately determine performance measure results • Risk factors need to be relevant to the specific activities to be examined • For LANL facility projects, we have developed a generic set of risk factors and grouped them into four categories
Risk Ranking Criteria • The assessments of risk for a given risk factor need to be made consistently across differing types of activities • Therefore, for each risk factor, qualitative criteria are needed that define risk in each category (low, medium, high)
Risk Evaluation • Evaluate each task or activity against each risk factor using the ranking criteria and assess the risk level appropriately • All risk factors may not be applicable for any specific activity • Record the results on a worksheet, including justification for the assessment
Risk Summation • Also, record the risk rankings in a table format using numbers (0-3) to represent the risk rankings • Then sum across the risk factors for each task to get risk category and the total task score • All risk factors are weighted equally in this process
Input Distribution Development • Risk Factor Analysis results provide a basis for the development of distributions used in the quantitative risk model.
Format of Quantitative Risk Assessment Results • Cumulative probability distributions provide a complete picture of uncertainty, it is not ignored or assumed to take on extreme values. • Results provide a basis for setting risk-based performance targets and contingencies. • Sensitivity analyses identify contributors to risk
Conclusions • Risk factor analysis is a qualitative risk analysis technique aimed at identifying and assessing the drivers that will determine overall project performance • RFA has been used at Los Alamos for the early assessment of technical risks in conceptual design and later as part of integrated qualitative and quantitative risk analyses