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5-min Intra-hour Wind Forecasting Mago Nitika ERCOT

5-min Intra-hour Wind Forecasting Mago Nitika ERCOT. Background & Data Sets. AWS started to deliver intra-hour 5-min wind forecast to ERCOT for the ERCOT total and five wind regions Data from 04/07/2018 to 05/07/2018 used for the performance evaluation.

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5-min Intra-hour Wind Forecasting Mago Nitika ERCOT

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  1. 5-min Intra-hour Wind Forecasting Mago Nitika ERCOT

  2. Background & Data Sets • AWS started to deliver intra-hour 5-min wind forecast to ERCOT for the ERCOT total and five wind regions • Data from 04/07/2018 to 05/07/2018 used for the performance evaluation

  3. 5-min Wind Forecast in MAE (Mean Absolute Error)

  4. 5-min-ahead Wind Forecast Error

  5. 5-min-ahead Wind Forecast Error for Large Wind Ramp-up Events* *> 100 MW/5 minutes

  6. 5-min-ahead Wind Forecast Error for Large Wind Ramp-down Events** **< -100 MW/5 minutes

  7. Next Step for Integration of Intra-hour Wind Forecast • Integrate into Generation To Be Dispatched (GTBD) calculation • The next 5-min Forecast can be integrated into GTBD to ensure SCED dispatch will preposition non-Wind units to offset the expected change in wind generation in the next 5-min Generation To Be Dispatched = Total Gen + K1*10*System Load Frequency Bias + K2*[(net non-conforming Load) – (net filtered non-conforming Load)] + K3*5*PLDRR + K4*Regulation Deployed + K5*ACE Integral + K6*PWDRR *The predicted wind ramp (PWDRR) is calculated from the intra-hour wind forecast separately in 1 minute granularity. This number will then be multiplied by 5 to capture the projected 5 minute wind ramp for the purpose of 5 minute SCED dispatch.

  8. Divider Slide Divider Slide (optional) Questions?

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