1 / 17

Demographic Changes

Demographic Changes. Demographic Transition Model Transitions In World Population. Calculating Population Change. Four variables for population equation Births + immigration = increase Deaths + emigration = decrease (CBR+I)-(CDR+E)= Total population

cguerrero
Télécharger la présentation

Demographic Changes

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Demographic Changes Demographic Transition Model Transitions In World Population

  2. Calculating Population Change Four variables for population equation • Births + immigration = increase • Deaths + emigration = decrease • (CBR+I)-(CDR+E)= Total population • This equation better suited to study population trends rather than specifics • In what ways might geographers use this data?

  3. Demographic Transition Model • Used to determine stages of a country’s growth • Graphs population, time, birth and death rates (doesn’t account for migration) • Used to correlate a country’s progress in technology and society Pop Stages/Time

  4. Stage 1: Low Growth (High Stationary) • Overall Population is sparse • High birth-high death= stationary pop • Lack of major food surplus keeps population low • Super long doubling time • ALL WORLD REGIONS UNTIL 17th C • Agricultural Revolution: domesticated plants/animals make for better food sources and lead to transition

  5. Population graph for the first four million years

  6. Stage 2: High Growth (Early Expanding) • CDR decreases rapidly (especially people under the age of 5) • CBR remains steady • Results in natural increase • Industrial Revolution • Technology produces and transfers goods • Industry and farming improve • Sanitation improvements- examples? • Medical advancements- examples? • Bangladesh, Nigeria, Pakistan

  7. Stage 3: Moderate Growth (Late Expanding) • CBR drops • CDR drops but slower than stage 2 decrease • NIR is modest • CBR drops because of new technologies • People have fewer kids • Medical advances mean less chance of children dying • Economic factors: less farming more urban • How does this correlate? • Women become better educated • How does this correlate? • China, Brazil, Mexico, India

  8. Entering Stage Three Even though birth rate is falling, population momentum keeps the total population growing.

  9. Stage 4: Low to No Growth (Low Stationary) • CBR=CDR (little to no growth) • Most European nations in Stage 4 • U.S. moving in this direction • Social Customs • Women working • Employed parents need to plan for day care • Entertainment and leisure activities • EXPLAIN! US, Sweden, Japan, Britain

  10. Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Birth Rate Death Rate Total Population Low growthincr grwthdecr grwthlow/no

  11. Problems with the Model? • No "guidelines" for how long it takes a to get from Stage I to IV. Just describes it • Western Euro countries took centuries • Economic Tigers took decades. • Nations that were populated by emigration did not go through early stage • Birth rates have fallen below death rates in some areas, should there be a stage V?

  12. PROPOSED FIFTH STAGE: • Negative population growth • CBR drops to zero-CDR very low-population is slowly dying out (Children of Men) • Not enough people in the work force to support programs for the aged (dependency ratio very lopsided) • Social programs overloaded-unrest & probable chaos • Innovations stagnant Prezi

More Related