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Meteorological Analysis and Forecasts for Brasilia, Brazil - December 2012

This document presents a comprehensive meteorological analysis for Brasilia, Brazil, including satellite imagery, surface maps, and enhanced IR data from December 3, 2012. With observed temperatures ranging from 62.6°F to 69.8°F and prevailing conditions of rain and thunderstorms, the analysis emphasizes the rainfall's impact on temperature moderation during the region's rainy season. Notable observations from various reporting times detail wind speed and patterns, providing insights into local weather phenomena, which are vital for better forecasting and severe weather preparedness.

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Meteorological Analysis and Forecasts for Brasilia, Brazil - December 2012

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Presentation Transcript

  1. Southern hemisphere forecasts Meteorology 415 Fall 2012 Contest 3 December 11, 2012

  2. Brasilia, Brazil

  3. Satellite imagery

  4. Surface Map

  5. Enhanced IR

  6. Meteogram

  7. Observations 3:16 PM 69.8 °F - 62.6 °F 78% - 1.9 mi WNW 10.4 mph - N/A Rain , Thunderstorm Light Thunderstorms and Rain SPECI SBBR 111716Z 30009KT 3000 -TSRA FEW015 BKN036 FEW040CB 21/17 Q1 015 • SBBR 111700Z 33013KT 9999 3000W -RA BKN036 FEW040TCU BKN070 21/ 19 Q1016 = • SBBR 111716Z 30009KT 3000 -TSRA FEW015 BKN036 FEW040CB 21/17 Q1 015= • SBBR 111900Z 00000KT 8000 -TSRA SCT036 FEW040CB BKN100 22/18 Q1 015 = • SBBR 112000Z 29003KT 9999 FEW036 FEW040TCU SCT100 22/18 Q1014 R ETS= • SBBR 112100Z 04002KT 9999 FEW036 SCT070 22/19 Q1014 = • SBBR 112200Z 20006KT 9999 FEW036 BKN080 22/19 Q1015 = • SBBR 112300Z 19004KT 9999 FEW030 BKN100 22/19 Q1015 =

  8. Observations • SBBR 112300Z 19004KT 9999 VCTS FEW030 FEW040CB BKN100 22/19 Q10 15 = • SBBR 120000Z 23004KT 9999 VCTS BKN030 FEW040CB BKN070 22/19 Q10 17 = • SBBR 120100Z 31003KT 9999 SCT030 SCT080 21/19 Q1017 = • SBBR 120200Z 35001KT 9999 SCT030 SCT070 21/19 Q1017 = • SBBR 120300Z 27002KT 9999 VCTS SCT030 FEW040CB SCT080 21/18 Q10 17 = • SBBR 120400Z 19008KT 9999 -RA VCTS FEW011 BKN030 FEW040CB 21/19 Q1016 • SBBR 120500Z 29003KT 9999 FEW011 SCT030 FEW040TCU 20/18 Q1015=

  9. Verifications

  10. Scores - Survey

  11. Scores - Career

  12. Up Close and Personal

  13. Lessons Learned • It’s the rainy season in Brasilia, so max temperatures are modified by cloud cover and typical afternoon-evening thundershowers. • In the Tropics, strong wind gusts with convection are uncommon as are low ceilings and reduced visibility- EXCEPT during an intense shower • The prevailing dewpoints are a good estimate of the minimum temperature

  14. Buenos Aires

  15. Buenos Aires

  16. Satellite/Radar Imagery

  17. Satellite imagery

  18. Surface / Upper Air Map

  19. Summary Weather

  20. Observations • SAEZ 111800Z 27007KT 180V310 CAVOK 29/15 Q1004= • SAEZ 111900Z 25005KT 170V270 CAVOK 29/14 Q1004= • SAEZ 112000Z 29003KT 250V340 CAVOK 29/13 Q1003= • SAEZ 112100Z 33006KT 270V360 CAVOK 29/14 Q1003= • SAEZ 112200Z 32004KT 290V350 CAVOK 28/13 Q1003= • SAEZ 112300Z 33004KT CAVOK 27/15 Q1003= • SAEZ 120000Z 32005KT CAVOK 25/14 Q1004= • SAEZ 120100Z 34004KT CAVOK 25/14 Q1004= • SAEZ 120200Z 36004KT CAVOK 24/14 Q1005= • SAEZ 120300Z 36004KT CAVOK 24/14 Q1004= • SAEZ 120400Z 36005KT CAVOK 23/14 Q1004= • SAEZ 120500Z 36003KT CAVOK 22/15 Q1004= • SAEZ 120600Z 00000KT CAVOK 19/15 Q1004= • SAEZ 120700Z 00000KT 8000 17/14 Q1003= • SAEZ 120800Z 35002KT 7000 NSC 17/14 Q1003= • SAEZ 120900Z 36003KT 8000 NSC 20/15 Q1004= • SAEZ 121000Z 36005KT 330V040 8000 22/15 Q1004= • SAEZ 121100Z 01005KT 340V040 8000 24/16 Q1004= • SAEZ 121200Z 01009KT 320V040 CAVOK 26/13 Q1004= • SAEZ 121300Z 01009KT 320V050 CAVOK 28/14 Q1003= • SAEZ 121400Z 36010KT 300V050 CAVOK 29/14 Q1003= • SAEZ 121500Z 33009KT 300V030 CAVOK 30/15 Q1002= • SAEZ 121600Z 33008KT 290V350 CAVOK 31/14 Q1002= • SAEZ 121700Z 34006KT 300V020 CAVOK 31/15 Q1002= • SAEZ 121800Z 30009KT 270V360 CAVOK 32/17 Q1001=

  21. Verifications

  22. Scores - Career

  23. Up Close and Personal

  24. Pago Pago NSTU 130150Z 09022KT 5SM -SHRA BKN014 OVC035 27/26 A2945 RMK PK WND 09033/40 SLP973 T02720260= NSTU 130318Z 08013KT 2SM TS +SHRA BKN014CB OVC035 27/26 A2944 RMK OCNL LTGIC ALQDS TSB18 ALQDS CB ALQDS= NSTU 130250Z 06012KT 2SM +SHRA BKN014 OVC035 27/26 A2945 RMK PK WND 09034/30 SLP973 60045 8/8// T02710256 56012= NSTU 130318Z 08013KT 2SM TS +SHRA BKN014CB OVC035 27/26 A2944 RMK OCNL LTGIC ALQDS TSB18 ALQDS CB ALQDS= NSTU 130318Z 08013KT 3200 TS +SHRA BKN014CB OVC035 27/26 A2944 RMK ONIL LTGIC ALQDS TSB18 ALQDS CB ALQDS= NSTU 130357Z 09010KT 10SM TS -SHRA BKN014CB OVC035 27/26 A2943 RMK OCNL LTGIC ALQDS TSB18 ALQDS CB ALQDS SLP968 T02690255= NSTU 130452Z 09018KT 7SM -SHRA FEW003 SCT012 BKN038 OVC080 27/25 A2945 RMK TSE52 SLP975 T02680254= NSTU 130550Z 08013KT 5SM -SHRA SCT012 BKN036 OVC080 27/26 A2946 RMK SLP978 60095 8/82/ T02700258 10273 20268 51005=

  25. Lessons Learned • Short term forecasting of dry, warm weather is safe in the early summer in the mid-latitudes • Light winds and dry air will lead to a larger than usual diurnal variation in temperatures • This is a good case of where 0 and 100 work to your favor in EVENTS and PRECIP Amt.

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