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Impact of economic crises on CEE economies

Impact of economic crises on CEE economies

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Impact of economic crises on CEE economies

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  1. Impact of economic crises on CEE economies ERES Industry Seminar UniCredit Bank Slovakia Jan Toth Chief Economist 26 March 2010

  2. Global pictures • Key Western European markets • Price pressures vs. economic cycle • Interest rates • Soft indicators

  3. Openness of the economy (export+import as % of GDP) Slovakia is extremely small open economy, depended on foreign demand % z HDP Zdroj: Eurostat (2008)

  4. Economic growth in European biggest economies Germany in deepest recession (share of industry is the biggest)

  5. Cash for clunkers – mostly gone by 1H10

  6. (Core) inflationary pressures should remain low Eurozone Core CPI vs. Output Gap Less important energy and food prices could increase. Source: Capital Economics

  7. Broader Money does not grow despite printing press Source: Capital Economics

  8. Short-term interest rates, forecasts ECB - Later to cut rates, later to increase rates Source: UniCredit

  9. Long-term interest rates in eurozone German 10-yr government bonds, yield curve should become less steep Source: UniCredit

  10. “Soft” indicators point to stronger 2Q10 Eurozone (esp. Germany) enjoys industrial production revival Source: Capital Economics

  11. Slovak example - zoomed on recent data

  12. “Soft” indicators point to still low levels of stocks compared to orders The ratio signals that “recovery” is not over yet Source: UniCredit

  13. CEE economies • Living standards • Growth forecasts and investments • Euro adoption had negative short-term impact • Polish and Hungarian labour force cheap vis-à-vis neighbours • Recession was the deepest in Slovakia, but recovery swift • Large fiscal deficitscould push tax rates higher after elections

  14. Living standards in historical perspective( EU15=100%) Living standards catch-up stalled during global crisis Source: Eurostat. February 2010.

  15. CEE growth Poland was best off in 2009 due to smaller export share

  16. CE4 growth and investments – Czech R & Slovakia Czech Republic - Y-o-Y Czech Republic - 2008=1 Slovakia - Y-o-Y Slovakia - 2008=1

  17. CE4 growth and investments – Poland & Hungary Poland - Y-o-Y Poland - 2008=1 Hungary - Y-o-Y Hungary - 2008=1

  18. Interest rate premium ( vs. German government, 10 yrs, in % ) Slovakia benefits due to euro adoption, but Czech R is close second

  19. Hourly (total) labour costs in manufacturing(EUR) Slovakia got sharply more expensive in relative terms Note: Labour costs include all costs borne by an employer. CE exports mainly consist of industrial goods. The average annual increase for CE costs was 8.5% in 1996-2006 period while it was 3% for EU15 and 1.7% for Germany. Source: 1996 -2008 is EUROSTAT data, the rest is an estimate. The latest data based on present exchange rates.

  20. % premium/discount to CE4 average Slovakia cannot react to slowdown via exchange rate, becomes more expensive

  21. Industry (manufacturing, s.a., July 2008 = 100) Slovakia was hit the hardest, but stronger recovery Source: Eurostat, UniCredit calculation

  22. Construction (sept 2008 = 100, seas.adjusted, 3M MA) Slovakia was the most hit, Hungary 2nd worst Source: Eurostat, UniCredit calculation

  23. Real estate construction (sept 2008 = 100, seas.adjusted, 3M MA) Slovakia and Hungary was the most hit Source: Eurostat, UniCredit calculation

  24. Construction - survey on current orders (s.a.) Orders still very low Source: Eurostat

  25. Retail sales (w/o cars, 2008 average = 100) Slovakia was hit the hardest, 10% below average 2008 level Source: Eurostat, UniCredit calculation

  26. GDP output (pre-crisis level 100%, quarterly development, s.a.) Slovakia was the most hit, but strongly rebounds Source: Eurostat

  27. Unemployment (an increase since the start of the crisis, s.a.) Slovakia was the most hit Source: Eurostat

  28. EUR race, no quick euro candidate in CE3 Slovak neighbors will continue to have floating exchange rate Source: UniCredit, Barclays

  29. On-going hope for CEE • Faced with a short-term deflationary/disinflationary environment, global corporations will lack pricing power and will have to work aggressively on costs to support the bottom line. This will continue to have important implications for CEE markets that have benefited from off-shoring. • In terms of the geographic location of production such pressures could end up producing more not less off-shoring • Potential threat: due to high fiscal deficit numbers, taxes could be increased in the future

  30. Contacts • Jaroslav Habo Large and multinationals Tel: +421 2 4950 4319 E-mail: jaroslav.habo@unicreditgroup.sk • František Doležal Mid segment Tel: +421 2 4950 2272 E-mail: frantisek.dolezal@unicreditgroup.sk • Marian Burian SME clients Tel: +421 2 4950 3207 E-mail: marian.burian@unicreditgroup.sk • Margita Slaninková Real Estate Financing Tel: +421 2 4950 2271 E-mail: greta.slaninkova@unicreditgroup.sk • Ján TóthResearch Tel: +421 2 4950 2267 E-mail: jan.toth@unicreditgroup.sk • David Derenik Research – Real Estate Tel: +421 2 4950 2368 E-mail: david.derenik@unicreditgroup.sk