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By Louis Bowers

Forecasting Seabreeze Frontogenesis and Extent of Onshore Seabreeze Frontal Propagation Along the New Jersey Shore. By Louis Bowers. Outline. What exactly is a “seabreeze”? How are seabreezes predicted? What determines the extent of seabreeze frontal propagation? Case Study.

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By Louis Bowers

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  1. Forecasting Seabreeze Frontogenesis and Extent of Onshore Seabreeze Frontal Propagation Along the New Jersey Shore By Louis Bowers

  2. Outline • What exactly is a “seabreeze”? • How are seabreezes predicted? What determines the extent of seabreeze frontal propagation? • Case Study

  3. What is a Seabreeze? • Seabreeze: a mesoscale phenomenon that is the result of a • complex ocean/atmosphere interaction during the late • Spring and Summer months. • It occurs due to the differential heating rates of the ocean and the land. • To maintain continuity, as the air over the • land rises, air moves onshore from over the ocean to replace it. • A Seabreeze frontal boundary is formed where the cool, moist marine air meets the warm, dry continental air.

  4. What is a Seabreeze?

  5. Why Do We Need to Predict Seabreezes? • More accurate forecasts along coastal sections for beachgoers. • Cost to electric companies - Cost of $250,000 for every degree temp forecast error per hour. (GPU Energy) • Better forecasts for seabreeze induced thunderstorms - risk of flash flooding. • Aviation hazard - seabreezes create low-level wind shear which may impact small commuter aircraft.

  6. How are seabreezes predicted? • Forecasting mesoscale phenomena requires using mesoscale resolution methods. • CODAR • Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction Models • -Regional Atmospheric Modeling System • (RAMS) - Colorado State University • -Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Modeling System • (COAMPS) - US Navy

  7. Seabreezes and CODAR • CODAR may act as a short term predictor of seabreeze frontogenesis offshore. • Detided CODAR: effect of wind stress on the ocean currents. • Distance from offshore extent of the circulation to coastline = distance from coastline to the seabreeze front -----> Extent of Onshore Propagation.

  8. Case Study: July 9, 2000 • RAMS • COAMPS • Radar

  9. RAMS • 4 Km Resolution • Internal Soil Moisture model to initialize surface heat fluxes. • Model run out to 72 hours - forecasts made for every 30 mins. • Products available include: Temp, Pressure, Winds, and RH..

  10. Case Study: RAMS (Temp, RH)

  11. COAMPS • 27 Km Resolution. • Model run every 12 hours - forecasts made for 48 hours. • Products include: Temp, Pressure, Winds, and Relative Humidity.

  12. Case Study: COAMPS (Temp, RH)

  13. Case Study: Radar

  14. Case Study: Radar

  15. Case Study: Radar

  16. Future Seabreeze Research at Tuckerton • SODAR: Provides vertical profiles of horizontal and vertical winds, as well as temperature. • Long-range CODAR: Extention include the entire NJ shoreline from Sandy Hook to Cape May, and greater offshore coverage. • Enhanced resolution COAMPS model.

  17. Concluding Statements • The forecasting of mesoscale features such as seabreezes are the future of operational and research meteorology. • Accurate short-term prediction (~1-2 days) of seabreezes will be available within a few years. • Thank you very much for your time and attention. • Special thanks go to my mentor for this project, Dr. Scott Glenn, and all the people I worked with at Tuckerton and NWS.

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